weatherwiz

What would be nice is if we could get a winter with a more active southern stream as opposed to just an active northern stream. I understand we can still get solid storms and such with an active northern stream but the way the hemispheric pattern has been configured in the winter months the past several years we have not had much luck with just northern stream alone. Even if you get -NAO's involved...I think when it comes to a predominately northern stream driven pattern, it becomes much more complex than just having a -NAO or -AO...this is where structure not only becomes even more important but how the NAO is evolving as northern stream energy is arriving. You'll likely to get a better support from the NAO is the NAO is transition as this will likely result in changing height configurations over the Northeast and offers a better chance to shunt a storm south. But notice how the past few...maybe even several winter we continue to see the exact same theme with modeling in the long-range. Just constant "pattern looks good" outputs and all these outputs are in a specific time range which is typically beyond D10...sometimes even as close as D6 then everything falls apart. This goes to show we need big changes and support from other domains (not just the Arctic). We have seen favorable patterns unfold but they have typically been very brief and short-lived and it's b/c the Pacific has been such garbage and the Pacific really plays a significant role in the overall pattern configuration...the Arctic can influence the structure of the pattern but a coupling of the two would really end this theme of "looking good in the long-range to becoming crap by the medium-range".

isn't MJO 8 pretty rare anyways? (I'm not much of an MJO expert)

Not only that but models don't particularly handle MJO evolution past several days out very well.

Not a chance. I've had some spiders in my car while driving...it's the scariest thing ever.

don't forget the wildfires

This was the 19z HRRR for 21z

Actually the severe weather capital has been more east of the Plains

Absolutely agreed...100%. Our weather is quite tame when you look at other parts of the country. I mean when they get blizzards in the Plains...they get blizzards. Portions of highways will be shut down and the videos are absolutely wild. Visibility is zero. These places make our snow look meh and they certainly make our severe weather look even more meh

absolutely unreal. you could be outside enjoying the beautiful December day with sun peaking through, run inside to use the bathroom for 2 minutes, and go back out and trees are down everywhere and the sun is back out

What's happening in the heart of the country now is absolutely wild. The videos are epic. I guess some wildfires going too

That's legit a carbon copy

storms moving NE at 85 mph through Nebraska .

I noticed that too...kinda got screwed by that a few times...especially when I do Weekly forecasts on Friday I'll get a little overzealous seeing some of these warm signals in the south only to get muted. Another issue too is cloud cover...sometimes guidance is a bit too aggressive with sky cover and it probably impacts its mixing potential. NBM does seem to be a bit better though than MOS. RDU is a place where it seems like models often are a bit too high with temps and a bit too warm with lows. I've wanted to look into this but I've wondered if RDU is a location that is great for radiating.

some people have had the best times of their lives in only 3-minutes of fun

70's with dews in the upper 50's to lower 60's in Iowa...in December... Should have flew out there for today

The NAM is complete trash when it comes to forecasting temperatures...especially across the central U.S. There are some instances where the NAM/GFS will be off by like 10-15F on temps...it's laughable.

Risk for a strong tornado in areas where there is snow cover. snow-induced TDS's?

The structure of those 2M temp anomalies too (kinking from NE to SW) lead me to believe there would be a pretty solid high pressure off to the north which could certainly help in shunting storms south or supplying cold air.

At the car repair shop place sitting in the lobby working while they scan my car and this giant wolf spider craws near me. THERE AREN'T SUPPOSED TO BE WOLF SPIDERS IN DECEMBER

Indeed...this is actually becoming quite exciting. I love these sneaky setups too...these can often overperform too. There are actually some signals too that there could be two heavy bands of snow (which would then bring into question some areas of subsidence) but one heavy band of snow just north of the low track and another in the vicinity of the strongest WAA (these two don't seemed to be overlapped). I am hoping the degree of ulvl divergence given that streak will promote large enough lift to blossom a precipitation shield but sometimes these setups become more band oriented.

That is some hefty WAA. That would lead to some serious rates. That degree of WAA reminds me of November 2018 (I think that was November). And that event was pretty wild...especially down across SE PA/NJ/Long Island/S CT

Anytime you get these scenarios with cold air drainage from a high pressure to the north there is always the concern for dry air to drain down as well, however, that doesn't appear to be a concern in this scenario. Also note how the ULJ develops moving through Saturday morning across the Northeast...going to be a great deal of upper-level divergence present. Given the lift we should have where it snows its really going to come down.

Wow this is getting pretty interesting. Pretty stout high to the north too so hard to see this tracking farther north. If this does verify I probably wouldn't be going Saturday

I'd be going from Springfield Saturday with my gf so probably (I forget what route it is) something briefly to the Mass Pike.

I can barely handle driving in Hartford and I could barely handle driving around in Danbury cities stress me out...worrying about where to turn and if you'll miss it whether you're in the right lane. I prefer the highway sucked on subsidence all night (and 40's)