weatherwiz

Anything below 40 is just too cold to deal with. when it gets below 25 I can barely move

I agree...I was referring to the cold snaps as opposed to the winter as a whole. that 10 day stretch two winters ago was HORRIFIC. flying to ORD out of BDL at 5 AM and it was -12 at BDL

Need to bring it up to hot tub temp...101F is perfect. 102 you get a little sweat building and at 103...sweat dripping down your face.

Yeah I can see that type of scenario occurring. I have a feeling this winter is not going to really behave extremely well which will make the long-range forecasting exceptionally difficult. There is a great deal in place which I think favors a -EPO/major blocking. The jet should be very, very strong too so we'll need the block/-EPO to suppress it, but given this the pattern I think should be active so we'll see if that can transpire into above-average snow for us.

IDK...it's not potent s/w energy but both days offer some pretty decent s/w moving through and then the front Sunday. Decent wind shear and not awful lapse rates. Heights look to rise Saturday so that could hurt and the timing of the front Sunday looks a little late. I could see some splitting supercell potential up north Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday both look to develop clouds as the day progresses with scattered showers/t'storms.

The last two winters have been brutal with the cold. I wouldn't mind a winter without the cold outbreaks. I'm kinda torn on the winter...I could see it go either way. The unscientific side of me wants to think we'll see a predominately +NAO given the record setting -NAO we had this spring/summer (in terms of consecutive days being negative) but the scientific side thinks we are going to deal with numerous cold outbreaks once again.

That's what I do in the winter. I bury myself under about 4 blankets and curl up into a ball

I'm still thinking we see a potentially top 3 warmest September across many climo sites.

It's likely overdone with regards to totals being that widespread, however, that is likely indicating the convective potential upcoming and how areas that are hit (and hit repeatably) may see upwards of 2-3'' (heck even locally higher)

It's certainly not a dry pattern. It's a pattern which will be conducive for convection. Areas which are hit by convection will end up on the wetter side and areas missed will end up on the drier side.

Just heard thunder in Branford!

yeah this went down the drain quickly.

That made me hungry.

Cod finally backup!!! Thank God. I love Cod. Best available

Can’t wait for the season to begin!!

This is PA, NJ, into the mid-Atlantic for severe. I would not rule out the potential for something along the coast but that's about it. Anyways, this could be a pretty significant event down that way.

Thank you! I finished school in December! (Already almost a year )

yeah I'm not all that enthused this way...maybe some elevated convection. I haven't looked in tremendous detail though. spending countless hours with Python and just getting plots of a US map so I can plot points...WHAT A PAIN IN THE... fixed the issue with Cartopy (don't even know how)...then I need Basemap from mpl_toolkits and THAT IS A PAIN WHY DOES THIS STUFF HAVE TO BE SO DIFFICULT??? I never realized how "simple" Python actually is...the coding isn't terrible...BUT GETTING CRAP TO WORK and all these stupid ridiculous help forms for this crap are little, if any help. I mean for the love of God these people are supposed to be 'experts" and there are problems after problems

Excellent post! Incredibly informative and educational. One thing I am trying to do is understand Hadley Cell Circulation much better and how virtually what you described impacts Hadley Cell Circulation.

Quite the impressive setup tomorrow from PA into NJ. As always with Northeast severe potential there are a ton of caveats and differences within the models. However, forecast soundings are extremely impressive with the NAM indicating a pretty impressive overlay of shear and instability. The result in rather long and curved hodographs. The GFS isn't as impressive with regards to instability but given the surge of theta-e it wouldn't take much. I suspect we'll see a few TOR's tomorrow across PA and NJ and I really wouldn't rule out the potential for a strong tornado.

Tomorrow could be real nasty across PA/NJ. I'm sure they will tack on to their above-average tornado season. some pretty hefty instability numbers with rather long and curved hodographs. If there was a bit more 3km CAPE being shown I would start thinking of the potential for a strong tornado (EF2-EF3)

I was shocked to see NOAA increase their numbers last week. I'll be the first to admit that my knowledge regarding tropical activity is extremely low, but some of the reasoning I've been seeing out there from others is a bit head scratching. The focus primarily seems to be on 1) SST's in the Atlantic 2) EL Nino being officially dead (in terms of the definition used to define an event) woah...woah...woah...woah There is a helluva lot more which goes into potential tropical activity than SST's and ENSO. SST's aren't a driver in tropical activity, SST's promote an ingredient needed for strengthening. Very similar to that of CAPE and t'storms...CAPE is not a driver in convection. Just b/c EL Nino is not officially defined anymore doesn't mean the atmosphere is just going to automatically adjust. Anyways, the entire PAC is above-average (except for the cold tongue punching through 1.2. The atmosphere can still very much act EL Nino-ish. Looking at the ATL...the ATL has been completely dominated by SAL and there aren't really many signs this will reduce anytime soon. Even if the degree of SAL decreased what's out there just isn't going to dissipate overnight. There have also been some big areas of wind shear which just isn't going to relax b/c we say EL Nino is dead. If we see tropical activity is will likely be tied to any Kelvin wave activity which can propagate into the Atlantic. Perhaps we'll see things in the Atlantic become more favorable overtime but I would be shocked is this season ended up above-average. Obviously things can heat up very quickly and we can see a later season but I think we would have to see drastic changes and those type of changes just aren't going to happen overnight and I'm sure there is going to be a pretty big lag in the change response.

Well didn’t get to see the shelf cloud I truly wanted but oh well. Sky looked cool, saw a flash of lightning, and winds gusted maybe 30-35? I think I need to by myself a handheld anemometer...but I need more hands. Trying to hold a camera in one hand and a phone in the other...how can I measure the wind