weatherwiz

Already a TOR down in NC

Well it's been quite a while since we've had a major ice storm. Thus far we had Isaias, tornado event/RFD induced damage, parts of the state nailed by the serial derecho, widespread 10-12'' snowstorm, let's put 2020 on....ice

I wonder if there is a small window to develop some discrete convection ahead of the main rain shield. There are subtle hints this is possible. Those 3km CAPE values aren't too terrible but it is also possible the shear is just too strong and those value might not be enough for updrafts to fully establish...or at least not enough to utilize the dynamics.

Part of it too is I think they've probably been heavily briefed on this for several days. I mean this storm signal has been there for a week. They've certainly had plenty of lead time

Yeah definitely becoming more of a concern. And this is why I was more conservative with thoughts on wind...but if this convection does verify with that leading dry slot we are screwed...well especially out your way. There is some possibility though that the majority of the line end up passing more of E CT (which screws you but would be some better news for much of the state).

Watching the snow/grass line outside the window. snow line receding faster than Kevin's hairline

Do you think there is room for a narrow dry slot ahead of the convective line? Looks like the hi-res models are kinda picking up on that. That would certainly escalate higher-end gust potential

Exhaust from airplanes landing at BDL cause small twigs/branches and loose roof tiles to come down in the area

That's why I think this is such a tough wind forecast.

Is it too late to fly to NC?

You only need minutes of 60-70 mph winds to get damage/power outages. Just look at thunderstorms

I think that's where the best winds will end up. I'm still torn about here in CT. The core of the 925 winds may only brush across the southern part of the state. The HRRR too has a bit more in the way of lightning density than I would have envisioned. If the convective stuff happens we're pretty screwed. And right now those signals seem to be getting stronger (for convection).

If the HRRR is right SE MA/Cape could get destroyed with damaging winds. That is a pretty impressive line of convection shown. Probably see gusts 70-80 if that verified

Thus far NAM/HRRR indeed indicating some sort of convective line moving through. Widespread 50-60 knot gusts with it

I suppose this dry slot along with nose of LLJ max could be a focal point in aiding convection

There was the serial derecho a few months back. I think there was another event too a bit before that. The low CAPE/high shear events are very fickle. It's actually possible for shear to be too strong b/c if shear far outweighs buoyancy the updrafts get sheared apart and you can't generate robust enough updrafts to punch into and utilize the shear. Also, it is so warm aloft I think it will be very difficult to generate any lighting and we certainly won't see updrafts capable of lightning production.

yeah I was just checking the 18z HRRR and it had 60-80 J of 3km CAPE...given the shear parameters that certainly may be enough. Maybe I'm wrong and there will actually be some convection involved here. I think that's really the only way we materialize higher end winds out of this. Even still looking at bufkit (only looked at CT) it still seems to be struggling to really bring down significant gusts. But I mean if there is convection involved...it's going to be quite ugly. I just didn't see much in the way for convection outside of the insane forcing. EDIT: actually 12z was a bit better at BDL in terms of mixing

This seems a little crazy but there might be a window for some pre-line low-topped supercells Thursday evening. The HRRR has quite a bit of 3km CAPE actually.

should have gone chasing in NC tomorrow

Huge potential right near the Outer Banks...models traverse a ribbon of >1000 MLCape across the area. Tons of llvl instability too. Small window for a strong tornado in eastern NC

WOW enhanced in the mid-Atlantic with 10% TOR

I was around in the 80's too...but was a swimmer through most of the decade.

Even 90+ just off the Cape...unreal

2020 wasn't really all that dull but I guess it depends on the definition one is using for "dull" Sure last winter was pathetic and this summer wasn't the most active in terms of convection, but the weather events we did get this year...they packed a punch.

3km NAM actually has a decent surge of elevated instability and even hints at an embedded supercell potential