weatherwiz

It's certainly not a dry pattern. It's a pattern which will be conducive for convection. Areas which are hit by convection will end up on the wetter side and areas missed will end up on the drier side.

Just heard thunder in Branford!

yeah this went down the drain quickly.

That made me hungry.

Cod finally backup!!! Thank God. I love Cod. Best available

Can’t wait for the season to begin!!

This is PA, NJ, into the mid-Atlantic for severe. I would not rule out the potential for something along the coast but that's about it. Anyways, this could be a pretty significant event down that way.

Thank you! I finished school in December! (Already almost a year )

yeah I'm not all that enthused this way...maybe some elevated convection. I haven't looked in tremendous detail though. spending countless hours with Python and just getting plots of a US map so I can plot points...WHAT A PAIN IN THE... fixed the issue with Cartopy (don't even know how)...then I need Basemap from mpl_toolkits and THAT IS A PAIN WHY DOES THIS STUFF HAVE TO BE SO DIFFICULT??? I never realized how "simple" Python actually is...the coding isn't terrible...BUT GETTING CRAP TO WORK and all these stupid ridiculous help forms for this crap are little, if any help. I mean for the love of God these people are supposed to be 'experts" and there are problems after problems

Excellent post! Incredibly informative and educational. One thing I am trying to do is understand Hadley Cell Circulation much better and how virtually what you described impacts Hadley Cell Circulation.

Quite the impressive setup tomorrow from PA into NJ. As always with Northeast severe potential there are a ton of caveats and differences within the models. However, forecast soundings are extremely impressive with the NAM indicating a pretty impressive overlay of shear and instability. The result in rather long and curved hodographs. The GFS isn't as impressive with regards to instability but given the surge of theta-e it wouldn't take much. I suspect we'll see a few TOR's tomorrow across PA and NJ and I really wouldn't rule out the potential for a strong tornado.

Tomorrow could be real nasty across PA/NJ. I'm sure they will tack on to their above-average tornado season. some pretty hefty instability numbers with rather long and curved hodographs. If there was a bit more 3km CAPE being shown I would start thinking of the potential for a strong tornado (EF2-EF3)

I was shocked to see NOAA increase their numbers last week. I'll be the first to admit that my knowledge regarding tropical activity is extremely low, but some of the reasoning I've been seeing out there from others is a bit head scratching. The focus primarily seems to be on 1) SST's in the Atlantic 2) EL Nino being officially dead (in terms of the definition used to define an event) woah...woah...woah...woah There is a helluva lot more which goes into potential tropical activity than SST's and ENSO. SST's aren't a driver in tropical activity, SST's promote an ingredient needed for strengthening. Very similar to that of CAPE and t'storms...CAPE is not a driver in convection. Just b/c EL Nino is not officially defined anymore doesn't mean the atmosphere is just going to automatically adjust. Anyways, the entire PAC is above-average (except for the cold tongue punching through 1.2. The atmosphere can still very much act EL Nino-ish. Looking at the ATL...the ATL has been completely dominated by SAL and there aren't really many signs this will reduce anytime soon. Even if the degree of SAL decreased what's out there just isn't going to dissipate overnight. There have also been some big areas of wind shear which just isn't going to relax b/c we say EL Nino is dead. If we see tropical activity is will likely be tied to any Kelvin wave activity which can propagate into the Atlantic. Perhaps we'll see things in the Atlantic become more favorable overtime but I would be shocked is this season ended up above-average. Obviously things can heat up very quickly and we can see a later season but I think we would have to see drastic changes and those type of changes just aren't going to happen overnight and I'm sure there is going to be a pretty big lag in the change response.

Well didn’t get to see the shelf cloud I truly wanted but oh well. Sky looked cool, saw a flash of lightning, and winds gusted maybe 30-35? I think I need to by myself a handheld anemometer...but I need more hands. Trying to hold a camera in one hand and a phone in the other...how can I measure the wind

Downpour just popped up. Had to scramble to pack up and get in car

Lightning!!

Not bad winds!

Holy shit this sky!

Seeing another shelf!!!! It’s coming!!!! Two shelfs in like 20 min!!!!

Might be time to change the position of the camera soon

Waiting to see if I’ll see any flashes over by the hospital soon!

I can see the tops from the SW cells...definitely taller

I love when you can see the rain shaft...like where it starts and ends...so cute

I can’t wait to get view of the stuff coming from the SW. this is looking Nw