weatherwiz

BDL up to 84. The pigeon fated but it must have been weak sauce

BDL back up to 82. Maybe a pigeon will fart upon flying over the sensor and spike it up to 87...then just hope for magical breaks.

BDL isn't hitting 90 today

yeah me either. I mean I love intense weather (just don't want to see property damaged or lives lost) but an exact repeat of 38 would be beyond devastating on so many levels. People want to talk about COVID changing our lives...ha a 38 repeat says hold my beer

Nice catch! Monday for sure...just looking at GFS soundings would probably need to mix up to ~800-810mb. Wind direction could be favorable for that too...not far off from W.

ehhh not like this thread will see much action for a while lol. Tropical is probably my least knowledgeable part of meteorology but I think this drought is a little bit "scary". I say this for a few reasons; 1) Thinking about how low people's guards are here...hopefully (in a way) Irene/Sandy gave people an idea of just how bad things can be here should we get hit hard. but my worry is people may not just take the situation seriously...and in a way you can't really blame them. We've all seen through photos and videos of just how destructive they can be, but unless you have witnessed this in person sometimes it's difficult to fully grasp/understand just how real it can be. For example, the October snowstorm in 2011...I think many of us had an idea of how bad it would be but I don't think many knew it would be THAT bad...I think part of that is how many of us actually been through a scenario like that....heavy, wet snow with fully leaved trees? 2) Population increase/build-up along coastal communities. Coastal CT, RI, even SE MA has become very wealthy...the size of the houses are nuts! I also believe, the majority of the population lives within this corridor? This area is almost like a ticking time bomb. Hell, many areas along coastal CT alone were like demolished...and people re-built...on the same spot. 3) People not taking forecasts seriously in the event there is a significant threat (and it pans out). By the time people were to probably realize it would be too late to act. In terms of like the meteorological sense It just goes to show how difficult it is to get a system to directly hit us. It takes a very special type of pattern with everything coming together almost perfectly. This is something which can go into my point 3 above. Anytime models show some type of system into New England there goes social media blowing up and it starts spreading in the news...but if you were to really look at it...if the pattern does not support it, it is not going to happen. There do seem to be periods (years or even decades) though where we seem to get hit more than others and this can probably tie into global oscillations/patterns where despite your short-term variance, over the course of the longer-term you'll typically get a specific pattern regime (similar to say our snow climo and why some decades are better than others)

Exactly...and it's really how you learn/understand and developing forecasting skill and try to improve accuracy. Not to mention raise awareness when needed.

I mean pretty much...especially when you're dealing with smaller-scale phenomena like convection. However, even the term "maybe" is not proper...although if you're talking location-specific weather than "maybe" applies. So about Tuesday the only "maybe" is whether location's "A" "B" C" "D" "E", etc. will get a t'storm. However, when assessing the entire region there likely is no "maybe" about it. A cold front is forecast to enter a hot, and humid airmass with sufficient dynamics. There will be t'storms...there will probably be some severe ones. Will everyone get a t'storm? No. Will everyone who gets a t'storm witness severe criteria? No. Will there be t'storms within the region? Yes Will some of those be severe? Probably have a few at least.

It's not a "maybe"...it's weather...there is never any guarantee. In the case of convective forecasting (which is where my biggest strength is in forecasting), I love to start sniffing events up to 7-days out. There is no better way to learn more about weather than to spend time tracking potential through models and then watching everything unfold in real time. About 7-days out if I see any type of synoptic support for convection I'm intrigued and I will follow everyday.

A cold front is set to move through the region sometime Tuesday. Ahead of the cold front it will be rather hot and humid with temperatures ranging from the mid-to-upper 80's to the mid 90's and dewpoints into the 70's. Not a single person will be walking around without toilet paper stuck to them. Anyways, this isn't a big severe threat...I don't think anyways, but the one thing that interests me is a seasonably strong mid-level jet associated with a large-scale trough digging through the Great Lakes and through New England. The best shear may lag the front but these details can be ironed out as we get closer. Anyways, as it stands right now the potential should arise for the possibility of multiple line segments which will carry the risk for damaging winds depending on how this scenario unfolds. One thing I would like to see is a much stronger shortwave as the main shortwave energy is north into Canada...but forcing from the front, modest shear, and ample CAPE should suffice for some t'storms/severe threat.

yes!

Awesome!!! I should have actually went down that way for this haha. I would have went there

West Hartford about to get hit hard

Collinsville has to be getting hit hard

Losing steam. Not very organized looking

That is one sick shelf off in the distance

hmm I don't remember off hand. I'll see if I can find out. I was using a camcorder in one hand and my phone in the other lol

Here is one video...not long but it picks up a bit like around 1:30. A few more to publish

I wonder if that second line is developing a cold pool and riding along it. Lapse rates steepening a bit

might be just enough juice left along with the increasing dynamics to maintain that round 2 line a bit

Man if Steve is busting your technology you know it’s bad

I have a YouTube. I’ll upload when I get home in a few minutes

Sun back out...time for round 2!!!