weatherwiz

Weakening pretty quickly. Tops are decreasing

I think I see a shelf!!!!!

Well here’s to hoping for a good shelf cloud

Maybe it will perk up moving into Litchfield county. Probably will head to the golf course soon and hope to get a shelf

Yeah it for sure looks better up that way.

Warning extended into Litchfield county. Doesn’t really look impressive. Maybe steep llvl lapse rates and inverted v look really helping with strong downdrafts?

Watch to midnight lol

hi-res haven't really been handling it very well...we'll see what happens though but it's racing pretty good.

I wonder why the NWS only displays two decimals (what looks to be east of the Rockies) and then 5 west of the Rockies. Although HI only gets two as well. Thought it was something special with the west where they needed more precise locations. I might email about this...it's kinda odd

more of a curiosity lol...and a wiz peeve

Type in different airport codes in the city search box... Anything east like east or central like ABE, ABQ, ALB, ATL, ATW, AUS, BDL, BFM, BHM, etc all only have two digits after the decimal. Meanwhile west-ish like BIL, BOI, BUR, CPR, GEG, GTF, LAS, OAK, etc all have like 5 digits past the decimal

How come on the NWS site all west coast locations have 5 digits after the decimal for lat/long but not central or east coast cities? LAX for example...33.93806/118.38889 ABE...40.65/75.45 this is one example but it's a constant theme

If we're still pulling off +5's in the upcoming climo period we're in big trouble I think. Speaking of the climo period...I think this also makes re-analysis extremely difficult. For example, this page... You can get temperature anomalies beginning from January 1895. But the following climo periods are only available: 1950-1995 1951-2010 1961-1990 1971-2000 1895-2000 1950-2007 2007-2016 I sort of wish there were some other periods in there...especially for early on in the dataset. I mean say you wanted to look at like some month in 1904...if you compare that to the 1981-2010 climo...chances are it is going to look quite below-average. but at least with the temperature anomalies you can choose different periods. I think it's really bad with this page... because everything is just compared with the most recent climo period. Maybe I'm just being picky but too me it weakens the validity of the true picture.

I've been really starting to wonder if ENSO is AS BIG of a contributor as we have once thought...at least when we aren't dealing with a moderate-to-strong event. When you really dig into things and look at each ENSO event season-by-season I don't think there is as strong of a correlation as we may think. It is tough to say though b/c it really depends on what the driving force will be...maybe it's ENSO, maybe it's strength/position of tropical forcing (although this may tie into ENSO?), perhaps its the interactions between the lower strat. and upper trop., maybe MT or AAM. The last few years I think have been largely dictated by how the stratosphere has evolved and the lagged response by the troposphere...and that is another major wrench too is the whole lag factor as some responses we really don't notice until well after the initial event (whatever that may be) has occurred. One thing I'm really interested in (although having difficulty figuring out sources to analyze this information) is the heat budget and transport of energy from the equator to the Pole...I guess this can be done by assessing planetary/Rossby waves but my knowledge isn't strong enough to probably derive any conclusions or ideas just from this alone.

When we enter the new climo period it's going to be interesting to see how much the min's climb. With regards to the warming (referencing AGW here) you gotta wonder if eventually it will appear as if we're not seeing crazy warmth anymore and whether below-average periods are deceiving. What I mean by this is...when the climate numbers become adjusted everything is obviously going to tick up...so maybe right now a +4 in July may only come in as a +1...so you would think ehhh that's not bad...but in the grand scheme of the overall picture (going back to the start of records) that +1 is still quite significant. Also, say 85 is your average high...that will eventually become below-average. There is just so much that is going to happen with regards to climate statistics over the next several years that misinterpretations could become rampant. I would like to hear @Typhoon Tip's thoughts on this.

Should see some isolated t'storms late this afternoon into early evening too. Can't rule out a strong or severe t'storm across western MA or NW CT (western MA meaning Berkshire County)

WOW! I ended up missing the best stuff b/c on some Wednesday’s I’ll do trivia in WeHa with a friend and I didn’t cancel the plans tonight. Sitting at WOB in WeHa Center, inbeteeen one of the rounds I went outside...this was several minutes after the SVR...I’m assuming we had decent winds b/c I could see the trees moving outside and they are not tall at all...like those 8 footers you’ll see planted on sidewalks. First off, that was some of the most intense rain I’ve ever seen...it was legit buckets. The lightning/thunder was incredible. Took some video and posted on YouTube.

Awesome pic of a wall cloud NW of Albany on twitter.

SAL seems to be in complete domination and over an extensive area. Even if the degree of SAL coming off of Africa slows down over the next month there is just so much over the Atlantic I think it's going to be tough to overcome.

I think there is a typo in there...they say mlvl lapse rates 6.5-7 C/KM...if that were the case this would be a much bigger event

If we see anything in the Atlantic (outside of the Caribbean of course) it won't be until very late in the season.

The first round may actually go through a good chunk of the state. given satellite trends and forecast for a strengthening LLJ over our heads later this afternoon I am pretty excited about potential for severe here in CT.