weatherwiz

This time of year the higher elevations are usually always favored, however, I think this setup there is alot favoring the potential for snow at all elevations. For one, the models are indicating a pretty cold low-level airmass and looks like we will be seeing surface winds with a predominately northerly component. Also, the time of day could be a huge positive as looks like the majority of the processes at play occurring overnight Thursday and even moving through Friday morning...the processes surrounding dynamic cooling, drawing down colder air from up north, and the quite cold low-level airmass...all should pay in favor to keep a favorable thermo profile even at the lowest elevations. The biggest overall concern may be more dry air into the DGZ or where the strongest lift occurs and where the H5 tracks/closes off. But if this all happens in a favorable location...elevation I don't think plays much of a role...but of course the greatest of accumulations would probably occur with higher elevation.

The ingredients are certainly there for that to happen...just not sure we end up seeing this trend that far south/southeast...but there is room to at least head in that direction. some big differences between the NAM/GFS and the handling of all that energy within the Inter-mountain West

Hopefully occlusion doesn't occur too quickly here. Man...if we can get this south just a bit more given the baroclinic zone there would be room for rapid cyclogeneis south of Long Island. Let's pop 60's the next few days so leaf out can explode and then let's get a region wide 10-20'' Thursday night/Friday.

Looks like core of the cold in like -6C to -7C at 850 and -1C to -2C at 925...well during the event anyways. 925 actually colder Friday evening. You also have nearly 310K of theta-e air (at 850) being drawn into the storm...that's going to be some serious moisture being thrown into the CCB.

The last time we had snow on April 15-16 we had a monster severe weather outbreak a month later...bring it on!!!!

Yeah baby!!!

That is some impressive dynamic cooling going on the NAM...even a bit moreso than what has been advertised. Looks slightly south too with everything

Is that closed off energy across the Inter-mountain West playing a big role in this? Seems like differences in how models are handling that feature are also impacting the evolution of our H5 energy.

Great post and points wow wtf

Certainly don't disagree. I am expecting, however, to probably need a booster shot every 6-12 months for a year or two but if it goes beyond that...it will be a little ridiculous. But I do foresee this being a yearly thing...similar to the flu shot so it will become a product of choosing whether to get it. I've never gotten a flu shot but I don't mind getting a booster for a year or two but after that...meh...but time will tell

it's more click bait titles...only issue is most people probably don't bother to read the article and just go off the title...then start spreading the misinformation. As @bch2014 stated above, vaccines were never going to be 100% effective. So much has been harped upon the 90-95% effectiveness in the trials but people need to realize when you put that into a larger population that number is going to drop quite a bit. But even if it dropped to like 65-70%...that isn't horrific, but a substantial amount of people are going to need to take it. Then there is the issue with how long the vaccine holds effectiveness after being vaccinated...which right now looks to be about 6-months. We are killing ourselves with rollout. We have now been vaccinating for 4-months. I get there was a ton of supply needed and the resources maybe weren't there to make that happen but those who were vaccinated in December...their "immunity" is going to be wearing off in a few months. So unless there are plans to start doing boosters in a month or so some people may be back to square one.

eh that's a BS headline. If you read into the article that was based on a study of like 400 people lol.

That is highway robbery by Boston!

and we gave up a first for Kase

agreed...if they can make those moves then absolutely. Clifton ughhh...and that Moore signing...what a freaking joke. Coyle too has been a bust this season.

they'll make the playoffs. Remember too they have 3 games to make up. Getting Rask back is going to be huge. If they do make a move...we need a freaking top 6 forward...but at the rate D-man are going down we probably need a top 4 d-man too. But if its just some stupid depth move then I'm not down.

should add too finding out about my dad kinda added to this a bit. I still don't know what to think about that. He died last June, then we found out in December...freaking 6 months later that he had a severe respiratory infection and a stroke and tested positive for COVID and they said COVID could have played a roll...I still don't know what to think about that. I talked to him the day he died and after not seeing him for a few months when COVID started I saw him weekly...didn't complain of anything and he never went anywhere...except package store and mcdonalds

Certainly don't know but there are people who are very healthy and fit who are having long term effects.

fixed

eh I'd actually be fine if Sweeney did nothing. Unless it's a move for someone who is a top 6 forward who is also part of the long-term picture...just go with what you have. Lots of $$$ coming off the books. I do think Rask comes back (2 years) and his AAV will be much less. Mcavoy is going to get a big $$$$ but that won't be a big deal financially.

that's exactly what I hear from others too. I mean maybe I've just freaked myself out with looking at so many chest x-rays of post-COVID individuals but its not freaking pretty. That's why I don't understand why those who don't want the vaccine don't want it b/c "we don't know the long term effects of the vaccine"....ok but we kinda know the long-term effects from COVID.

I really don't want it either. I know I'd most likely be fine but it's the long-term potential damage it does. There are a few people who I know who had it a while back and they're still not the same. What it does to the lungs is kinda scary

Interesting...I haven't really seen that here in CT. For the most part people are wearing them (indoors). You see some every now and then with the mask below the nose and mouth but at least from my experiences it's kind far and few. But I don't knock on them...maybe they just need a breather or something. I feel for those that have to wear it like all day every day. When I'm at work I have to wear it all day b/c I have an intern in the same area as me and it drives me freaking nuts.

I think what's going to happen with the masks is as we go into summer and the majority of people get vaccinated...you're going to see more and more people just stop wearing them despite whatever mandates may be in place. Then what's going to happen...are businesses going to not let people in or are restaurants going to refuse service when a large amount of people just stop wearing them? Of course there will be people who continue to wear them.

This has been a pretty big issue as of late...even dating back the past few years. But that end of week signal is kinda interesting...pretty impressive dynamic cooling signal advertised by the GFS. I'm not saying we're looking at a good threat for some snow (outside of maybe the higher elevations) but could probably see some sleet/grauple showers should that type of solution with the H5 sliding south of us. In fact, the Euro is advertising this too. But who knows...I really don't have much confidence going past 3-4 days out in this type of pattern