weatherwiz
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well recon's first pass was impressive...hurricane force winds
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yes but we're talking about with tropical...it's exceedingly rare to get a ENH with a tropical system b/c the main threat is tornadoes and you would need a 10% TOR contour to get ENH and that doesn't happen very often
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I can only recall a couple times over the past several years where it's happened. I think it actually may have occurred last season? Maybe it was with Michael
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Let's 10% TOR this tomorrow. Hey Alex, I'll take ENH for $1000
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18z NAM BDL at 8:00 AM. CAPE continue to looking very impressive. Def have to wonder if we see an upgrade to an enhanced risk...maybe even see wind probs of 30% if signal for convection persists 3:00 PM lapse rates (3:00 PM)
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Actually has some decent TOR potential well into NH and even parts of ME
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Looks like a window from 5-10 AM and then another maybe 4-8 PM. HRRR looks like it's going to be wild with wind
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yeah it does appear as if it will stop ingesting dry air shortly...or very little. Where landfall happens will be big too...obviously the longer the eye stays over the water the greater the chance for strengthening but in this situation the longer it stays over water the closer to we towards sunset/evening when convection can start to increase.
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starting to see some overshooting tots on satellite
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the 18z HRRR has some nasty looking discrete cells moving through early tomorrow AM
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If it did get higher than a cat 1 we would be in deep trouble But I doubt so too...I'm thinking maybe 80-85 mph?
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crap...you're right. well I'm kinda glad about that
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I'm still bit nervous for further strengthening...it's in an area where if it strengthens it could take off. Obviously there is no model support for that but given how it's holding it's own as the shear weakens and it becomes more favorably aligned with the shear...who knows what could happen.
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IR doesn't look very good but visible seems to be looking better...hmmm
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they're just waiting for the real playoffs to start
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Get to watch the Bruins tomorrow and trees flying through the air.
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the wind has blown you out of CT
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FWIW, the 12z HRRR was just as impressive with winds for tomorrow. I know it's a bit far out of the HRRR range but still noteworthy. 18z HRRR should start rolling within the day
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I was actually thinking about that. But, to save people's I elected not to say.
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There has been another decent burst of convection flaring up the past few hours. Looks like its trying to wrap around the eye but still no luck. See what happens over the next 6-8 hours.
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I'm expecting a slight risk here when the new day 2 comes out!!!
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Looks like surface temperatures should push close to...perhaps even a few ticks above 80 with sfc dews climbing into the 70's. Those two alone are going to yield llvl lapse rates a bit steeper than we would usually see in this type of environment and not too beat this dead horse but much of this happening during peak heating hours is pretty huge.
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Looks like the RPM (12z run anyways) has coastal CT sustained 40-50+ knots?
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It's really all about mixing. That's what is a little bit bizarre IMO about this is how well some of the models are mixing. Here is 12z BAM bufkit for BDL. I'm still pretty impressed at these CAPE values given the shear. Also note that little area of drying aloft..but NAM has been pretty wonky with dry air aloft so not sure if that is accurate. Would have to investigate further
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Yeah I think this setup is a bit different from some of our previous setups. Ingredients we lack in those are present this go around
