weatherwiz

Having a deeper cold pool with this would help substantially...perhaps lapse rates will be steeper right in the vicinity of the low but might be a very narrow area. Outside of this they should be rather horrific actually. Even some better dynamics would help alot.

Highest totals perhaps in the orographically favored areas though will depend on winds. I also wouldn't be surprised to see it weaken a bit more quickly than guidance shows. Perhaps Tuesday offers the best chance for anything more scattered-to-numerous.

Even with next week...I'm not so sure there is a tremendous amount of lift with this thing. Not sure how widespread any precipitation will be. Certainly may be scattered enough to where more of an area has a chance for something

Gotta really watch using QPF/total precipitation maps in the summer. They're heavily skewed by convection and obviously since the models (well outside of the CAMS) don't resolve convection well they'll just show what looks like widespread precipitation when that isn't the case. Now...if there happened to be some type of synoptic weather system responsible for producing large-scale precipitation that's different. TBH, those maps are almost kinda useless in the summer.

No more severe threads...this is damn ridiculous. Screw tomorrow, screw Sunday, screw the rest of fooking summer. Nobody even mention summer anymore. It's not summer it's garbage

This is becoming rather complicated. That initial morning action may be more aligned for late morning/early afternoon and could really be the "main show". This would almost put a complete end to the severe wx threat. This is some straight up B.S. What a stupid fooking summer. Pathetic, ridiculous, and just a flat out freaking waste. At this juncture I hope the damn thing this becomes a blob of nothing and everyone's lawns just torch and wilt away. fooking summer. No more stupid threads...that's it. Fook it. Fook this

The timing of this seems to really be slowing down. In fact, looks like that "first wave" could really be the "main show".

I know very little on this topic and trying to find some reputable places to become more educated on it but is the Saharan Dust into the U.S. just more media hype (not hype about the dust itself but impacts). I understand it can make for poor air quality, dim sunlight leading to less sfc heating, but what other impacts result from it. Does it impact aviation at all?

I do see two (or multiple lines with this). One down in that area but we should see another track through southern CT...biggest question is how much instability we have to work with.

This is incorrect...disregard.

We want no part of the morning stuff...that's if you want PM stuff.

It does look like there could be a little bit of s/w subsidence behind the morning crap. Could be both good and bad...good in a sense it could help clear things out but if its too strong it would be an inhibitor for later development.

I'm sick and tired of COC. I mean a good COC is fine once in a while but too much COC is just boring. Need more excitement...this has been boring. Luckily this changes...tomorrow!!!

agreed

Time to pin the severe thread. Gotta start preparing for damaging days ahead

Key Saturday will be how much heating we can generate after morning clouds/showers. Should we be able to destabilize sufficiently there could be a corridor of widespread wind damage...so there is room for some higher damaging wind probs here. Also, still can't sleep on Sunday

The yellows and greens are creeping closer.

That's a pretty good look to get some MCS action to drop in. Hopefully that look stays.

That's a Tuesday.

CLOSER!!!!

Increasing theta-e and nose of LLJ with approaching warm front. All we need to get a batch of showers with embedded thunder to move through

We get a batch of showers and embedded heavier downpours with thunder very early Saturday AM then we should see scattered-to-numerous showers and t'storms progress through the region Saturday night...they may fizzle before getting to extreme eastern areas but those areas see action Sunday.

I would go with WeatherBell. I use WeatherModels (even though I have a log in from school for WetherBell) but I think WeatherBell is better.

I had a dream last night I was surrounded by rising updrafts all around me...big precursor to Saturday!