weatherwiz

Holy shit...I don’t care if that’s hail fused together...that’s huge

Danbury cell from North Branford

I think so...looking across N NJ into SE NY there is activity down there. Like you said...notable CU to my west

Debating on sticking around Branford...I think we should see development across southern CT within the next 30-60 minutes

actually the rotation isn't bad looking...though I think it's a bit elevated

not entirely...I'd watch southern CT and eastern CT through the afternoon.

there is some

I talked about today in the opening paragraph

If everything can align Wednesday could be a decent severe weather day. the lapse rates suck but dews well into the 70's could compensate a bit

oops...I had the wrong hour up on the screen. What I meant to say for Tuesday was a chance for t'storms overnight as humidity begins to increase again and the llv jet strengthens.

I'm sure this is somewhere within the August 2019 discussion thread but I don't feel like reading through all of the temp and dewpoint crap and about how people who live in forests try to use their weather to quantify a regime and how people on tarmacs try to quantify their weather as a regime so here it goes... The next few days offers up several opportunities for convection and like we saw this weekend the meso-models (or CAMS) are going to have a very difficult time grasping the evolution of convection. Today: Moderate (to even borderline extreme) instability in place thanks to very high dewpoints, rather warm sfc temps, and modest mid-level lapse rates. Shear isn't overly strong (but a modest MLJ of 40-50 knots) punching into the region will help create bulk shear values supportive for organized convection. The verdict: Scattered severe t'storms today which will produce localized areas of wind damage. Transient supercells may also produce some large hail with low risk for a tornado up in ME. Tuesday: Weak shortwave approaching, high humidity, and low CIN will result in scattered t'storms developing during the afternoon with isolated svr potential Wednesday: Wednesday is a bit more intriguing with strong front/shortwave energy approaching, and decent wind shear/instability. Could see scattered severe weather with all severe hazards possible.

Exactly.

3-6 lolis to 10

Pretty decent signal for some EML advection next week. Also talking about a 40-50 kt MLJ traversing the region. Let's see if we can muster something up

It's sounding game time!!!!! (Note: The game will take a break on the weekends unless I feel to do so otherwise) Here is a sounding from around the Kansas City area for 0z Friday evening. A very nice loaded gun sounding (extreme CAPE) characterized by MLCAPE > 5,000 J/KG and mlvl lapse rates of 8.5 C/KM! In addition to the extreme instability we also see strong wind shear present with both speed and directional shear noted. This is leading to a large and curved hodograph. I like this sounding b/c it indicatives an extreme thermodynamic environment coupled with very strong wind shear. Synoptically, there will be shortwave energy moving through along with a very well defined (well multiple) surface boundaries. This will be a focal point for extreme convection later today...likely explosive development with activity quickly converging into an MCS. Training t'storms are likely as well. Damaging winds and very large hail likely along with a few tornadoes with discrete cells. Significant flash flooding possible too.

I would have never guessed Greenland from looking at that sounding (ignoring coordinates of course).

LCL is pretty low

Actually Kansas City is quite populous

Going to start a new game. It's called "Sounding Fun for Everyone". You post a super fun sounding and explain what you like about it. There are a few things to note, however, since this is fun, there are instances where certain processes are yielding erroneous data...could be some with CAPE, wind shear, hodograph, funky skew-t, so just as a little head up to not take something like that at face value. I'll start. This is around Kansas City at 6z. I like the INSANE hodograph

Thankfully they can't. They just freak me out. I have really bad arachnophobia (although it's gotten a bit better over the years) but it's pretty bad and I'll get panic attacks. When I was working outside the other day there was a giant spider crawling up the side of the house I was power washing. Later on I was doing something and I sort of felt something fall on me and I look over my left shoulder and there was a spider on my shirt...no clue what kind it was but I freaked out and took my shirt off and ran around. IDK what it is but I'll legit start shaking if either a spider is on me or I think about one crawling on me.

I do that in the bathroom

The bathroom is right around the corner from my room. I get all my clothes ready the night before and there is a nightlight in the bathroom. But with it being bright in the bathroom and then walking out it's a sharp adjustment for the eye and I do more after the shower then I do before...put dirty clothes in the hamper, put on cologne, put on shoes, unplug my phone from the charger, grab my jacket and keys, and leave. I also saw a spider in between the shower curtains this morning which freaked me out. Several days ago there was a GIANT daddy long-leg in the shower...GIANT. I kept one eye open the entire shower...not sure where he went but haven't seen him since.

Yeah it sucks. When I get out of the shower I have to turn a light on in my room so I can see. Some pretty dense fog the past few mornings too

Gotcha...I have never really followed tropical much and was using this in conjunction from what I have read...so virtually my being not very knowledgeable (especially with regards to the "climo") makes it difficult to use historical information with what I'm looking at.