wow BDL got to 39. MOS/NBM were mid-40's
I guess though a further inspection of the synoptics and even mesoscale should have made it rather clear the lows would undershoot the guidance. High pressure building in, winds becoming pretty light, relatively dry BL. Outside of Monday night though BDL has undershoot guidance lows.
Forecasting lows is so challenging...well for me it is. I kinda suck at it. There are several cities (especially like down in TX) where guidance can be horrific with lows. I thought maybe the NBM would be better but I find it to suck just as much in many cases. I do find the NBM though to be pretty damn good with sky cover.