weatherwiz

I haven't gotten around to read your post-winter analysis yet but did you address any reasonings as to why it didn't behave like you thought?

And more precisely how they evolve/behave over the course of the season. Which this is something that I think Ray does very well with in his seasonal outlook presentations. Some out there who issue seasonal outlooks just focus on the variables as a whole and try to justify a seasonal forecast based off the state as a whole or a single state (for example, -NAO vs. +NAO). But IMO it's also more than just PNA, EPO, NAO, etc...it's trying to gauge what driver or drivers will hold the biggest influence on the shaping of the global pattern.

I think it’s a huge factor right along the immediate coast but not really as far inland as one would think. I’ll respond in better detail as to why I think so tomorrow when (if) I can get to my computer.

Watch line go through CT lol. Horrifically threw my back out earlier picking something up. Worst I’ve ever done it. Barely got myself to my bed then took me 3 hours to be able to get back up. This means line will be severe here b/c I can’t get to the airport

I think it’s more of a factor that the best forcing/lift is way northwest. The storms rapidly weaken as they move east b/c they outrun the better upper support. I think the south wind/marine taint stuff gets too much credit when talking about decaying thunderstorms here.

I don’t really have much knowledge of this but what Scott says makes sense. @OceanStWx wound probably have the best input.

Could be some pretty nasty supercells across upstate NY Monday afternoon. Meh for severe here but should see some decent rain spread throughout the region next few days

meh...timing looks a bit off and looks like greatest potential...surprise...south and west of our area. Although SW CT could be in a decent spot. But can't totally right it off...models differing in timing.

I have been away on vacation (on the way back but stuck in Delaware due to someone getting killed by a train or something). Trying to look at stuff on my laptop but the train WIFI sucks

It is very possible at some point in the future there could be discussions about reclassifying tornadoes, however, I think it would be extremely challenging. However, given the increase in technology we have now it's very possible we can classify tornadoes on the scale without them having done any damage...so long an accurate wind measurement can be recorded. Given increase in radar technology too we can probably become (more) accurate and precise on estimating winds speeds from radar

they should just cancel that guidance altogether

THAT'S RIDICULOUS

This was exactly my thought but then I went right to your second point...a 4F swing would be massively insane. I also briefly thought maybe one is averaging the period and one is focusing on the beginning or end of the period...but no way there is a 4F swing either over the course of the week.

ummmm WTF

It's very intriguing, especially if we can destabilize. I'm just pissed that with this mlvl flow we can advect in steeper lapse rates. Height falls are quite impressive though with more than sufficient shear.

Despite lackluster shear there has been sufficient CAPE in the hailgrowth zone these past few days to warrant the strongest cores to produce hail.

That is quite an interesting take and does make some sense. Over this past month we have seen a back-and-forth wobble going on. It looks like big heat wants to become established into our area but the way the Arctic configures really wants to suppress the heat back to our Southwest...but we have seen with this stretch that once that relaxes the big heat is getting in here. We're either doing a pattern of slightly below-average or way above-average...there is no in the middle. I kinda of agree with your thoughts too about going forward...we may very well see a pattern evolve which becomes very omega like...there are some precursors to this trying to occur but there are alot of moving pieces and lots of uncertainties with how the seasonal pressure center's become positioned and shaped moving through the month.

I was looking at that yesterday...that would be pretty ugly. Kinda afraid that could be a pre-cursor to a sustained pattern across the West.

Is it true the storm tops exceeded 60K across NY?

This stupid jet stream and stupid pattern upcoming is pissing me off. It's just going to be a boring zonal garbage flow with pieces of heat breaking off from the Southwest and floating our way...WHY CAN"T they bring EMLs with them....ummmm because there is no stupid trough moving through the West to displace this EML air east. Just these stupid lifting troughs in the Northwest...ok so EMLs may get pushed into Canada...you would think maybe they would ride the jet and come at us...NOPE. We aren't getting crap for severe in that pattern...big freaking deal maybe some MCS activity with NW flow...flow is garbage everything is garbage. Our big events that happen with NW flow...it's not just b/c of the NW flow its when they occur with a steep lapse rates regime. with this flow you typically get height falls and if you have a southerly flow at the sfc...well warm/moist low-levels and the NW mid/upper levels...dry and cool. then the EML prevents the dry/cool mixing down and mucking up CAPE...CAPE eater I like to call it...or CAPE destroyer. Boring...boring...stupid.

I remember that event...was huge national news headlines. That was some summer too for severe weather from the northern Plains through the upper-Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Obviously we had the derecho on 7/15/95 but we had the Great Barrington F4 on 5/29 and there were other events too. That 7/15/95 derecho may be one of the more impressive ever in terms of longevity...think that originated from like MT/ND or southern Canada. In fact 1995 was a wild year for weather...the winter was nuts

I love staring out the window and fantasizing TCU's rapidly rising and gaining altitude as they ascend through the troposphere and spread out across the sky upon reaching the tropopause. Actually got to view this with the storms last week. It was clear as day out ahead of that line...which doesn't happen very often here (outside of EML's). One thing about today though is there's a quite a bit of shear currently but looks to weaken through the day. the HRRR is pretty aggressive for today. Have to watch out for a differential heating axis which may evolve

Could maybe see some room for some heavy rain next weekend. Can't rule out a wave of low pressure developing along the stalled boundary. Would be tied into any potential MCS development across the northern Plains/upper-Midwest.

I see SPC put up a marginal up this way for today. Was waiting for that. Today is certainly not a huge severe threat and not even certain about coverage of thunderstorm activity but some damaging wind gusts definitely possible.

Was sitting in my car and lunch and I could feel the humidity rising. This is what we live for