weatherwiz

the severe threat is really just secondary. All I really want is just active summer in terms of thunderstorms...thunderstorms which offer nice shelf clouds and lots of lightning. If there happens to be hail or high winds...that's just a bonus. Although internal moisture does increase when thinking and hoping for these phenomena

I do remember this as well (like in the 90's). That was a decade where it seemed we would get nasty squall lines each summer...like the type of lines that went from Maine through PA. I used to get pissed too because they would ALWAYS without fail die as soon as they got into western Connecticut. I remember people telling me we didn't get severe weather or tornadoes because of the hills and then the stuff about Long Island Sound killing storms. I always thought both those were crap. Don't get me wrong...Long Island does hinder things with sea-breeze BUT I think the overall killer with squall line setups anyways is the line of thunderstorms outrun the better upper support and forcing.

But this sucks next week will be like mid-June and really after mid-July the likelihood for widespread severe threats or potential tends to drop off. Sure we can get some nice/big events into August but they aren't as likely as earlier in the season. And forget moving to the Plains or even going chasing in the Plains...Tornado Ally has and is shifting farther East...who knows, maybe in 15-20 years it will be across the East. Everything is becoming ridiculous

I am still really liking that June 10-14 period for severe weather...maybe a setup that would yield a higher end threat too. Nothing screams EML advection but the pattern evolution could certainly throw an EML plume our way. Things get very dicey though when you're just getting plumes of EML thrown your way b/c then it's really all about timing.

The question is...how long does it last? It's a very interesting pattern moving into next weekend (globally) and with a -AAM state combined with several other factors, looks like there would be wave breaking across the western Atlantic...or you would at least expect this to occur somewhere. This could promote trough potential in the east or at least some BDCF potential.

There has to be a high end severe threat in the northern Plains with that pattern...hell maybe some big potential across like MT or WY which I don't think is very common? I think June is going to have some surprises...by surprises I mean we aren't going to see an established pattern...it will be rather chaotic...hopefully that leads to a big severe chance. I think the upper-Midwest may get slammed in that department

I'm wearing jeans currently

Certainly does look a bit intriguing around that time for something...certainly not outbreak worthy but definitely some room for localized severe. Pretty decent speed max/shortwave trough moving through. Moisture return going to be key. I'm still liking the 10-13 period for something too

That would be a really awesome idea. Actually I think if you subscribe on Pivotal can't you get euro soundings?

maybe screaming was a bit much but it's still a pretty strong flow for the time of year...30-40 knots in the lower-levels with 60-70 knots in the mid-levels...I guess more appropriate term would be deep southerly flow

The NAM actually has a triple point brief spinner potential across NE MA Monday. LCL's may be like 600-700m

Agreed and that was a great call...this has definitely moved away from a cyclogenesis aspect (for tonight)...which probably does favor the idea of a region wide soaker b/c the drivers behind the rain are now different. Starting to get quite intrigued with Sunday night/Monday though...you could argue that's an even stronger signal for torrential rain...screaming southerly flow to the tropopause with LP just to our West.

This is some pretty hefty frontogenesis across the state. 60+ knot LLJ too coming off the ATL

Actually could probably see some thunderstorms across SE RI and far SE MA on Sunday. Pretty steep lapse rates with that ulvl low that passes overhead and decent elevated CAPE

I already talked enough about the rain threat

Still loving the June 10-12 or June 10-13 period for severe weather here...like an actual really good setup. Going to Chicago on a train trip 17-20...hopefully a derecho will blow through there

That is beyond devastating. So hard not to break down after reading that

I am sniffing hard a severe threat around June 8-12. My sniffer better not let me down

Bingo! May end up with some poor drainage flooding in spots. If there was any convection involved in this someone could probably pull of 3-4''

Pretty decent jet for late May...going to be pretty intense ulvl divergence PWATS around 1.3 - 1.5'' Pretty intense LLJ feeding moisture into like a "weak CBB" The rainfall rates are going to be quite intense

There could be a couple high-end severe weather events across parts of the upper-Midwest region (well like parts of MI/IA into MN/WI) the first week of June.

Think lightning hit something nearby. Sounded like a bomb went off holy crap

Super interesting hmm