weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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noticeably weaker with the confluence -
This isn't going to be some g-string sized band either...this thing is going to be abnormally wide. That degree of fronto and warm/moist air being thrown into the CCB...oof. Will say though...going to have to watch (perhaps the northwest side) the southeast side of the band b/c there will be some serious subsidence. This band has pivot potential too...that's where you'll get potential for 3' amounts.
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I've been in the west camp the whole time and not just because it meant more snow. I've portrayed my reasonings and I have no reason to jump off that ship. If something happens, as the captain of the ship, I go down in flames. I explained my reasoning a bit more here. But this is it...this is exactly what we live for and wish to me. It's coming...it's coming hard. https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2022/01/saturday-january-29-2022-potentially.html
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post total QPF when it goes out far enough!!!!!!
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ughhhh that's brutal. thanks for posting these though...very helpful. based on the H7 we're getting big goods into at least central CT
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does stormvista have 700 fronto?
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Red Sox thread one year was >1000 pages
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same. confluence at least looks not as pronounced as the NAM and both streams look good too ...so far
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These are my favorite maps to look at
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Left em in the dust with no bus to go back and pick them up
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I am hardcore praying the GFS is west...even if it's just a smidgity-poo west.
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looks extremely similar to my map
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It makes it worse that there really is no middle ground (at least back this way) it's either very low end or a total crush job.
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The NAM seems to be locking in
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That is one heck of an unstable layer. You may have to issue SVR's with heavy snow
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This band may end up sitting and pivoting. If that happens...oh my lord. oh lord
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THEY END UP CONSOLIDATING OH MY GOD!!!!! CRUSHER FOR CONNECTICUT!!!! May have to pull out a 30-36'' contour somewhere OMGGG
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The dual band look comes back. This is a pounding for Connecticut
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I'd maybe start getting concerned 12z tomorrow if we're continuing to see some of what we're seeing. There's just so much time (even though it doesn't feel like it) really. Hopefully the 0z balloon launches will provide significant value...we can at least see how models are initializing heights in the West. This doesn't help with everything but gives a small idea.
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Given how subtle the differences are of capture vs. late capture or no capture...we seriously may have too. I just don't think we're going to get any consistency or agreement on this until it either happens or doesn't
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gotta watch that confluence here...
