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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    Great...well prepare for an incoming post about how winds of 90+ knots at H3 means 70-80 mph gusts at the sfc
  2. weatherwiz
    yeah NE CT gets into this as it cranks. I'll have to re-do my snow map from yesterday...pretty off as I had the jack in NW CT (damn it).
  3. weatherwiz
    damn it is going to rip under this, Look at this sounding. Looks like a nice MAUL too. Roof crushing, tree toppling stuff here
  4. weatherwiz
    I'm actually kinda pissed about this b/c I think I mentioned the other day but when I made my snow map earlier I completely didn't take that aspect into account.
  5. weatherwiz
    I feel like when this is the case the outcome is never good for us.
  6. weatherwiz
    There is a crap ton of convection that forms off the mid-Atlantic coast...so many low centers on the run all focused towards the convection.
  7. weatherwiz
    ughhh plots on weathermodels having issues loading hours.
  8. weatherwiz
    think its just running now
  9. weatherwiz
    might be a bit east (so that trend could still be possible). but still cranks that CCB rapidly!
  10. weatherwiz
    yup right on time! eh I'm always screwed up on time, date, day who the hell knows anymore
  11. weatherwiz
    I could have swore it was like 3:45-4:00 but maybe it is 4:30
  12. weatherwiz
    ughhhh where the hell is the 18z GFS? This past like year has been freaking awful with NCEP/NWS products. Horrific page loading issues, displaying previous maps, incorrect graphics, numerous issues with running models. HOW CAN THERE BE SO MANY ISSUES???? I can't stand technology...it's so great yet nothing but a piece of junk. then issues other places too...COD, had problems loading bufkit profiles from PSU...WTF IS GOING ON???????? FIX THINGS
  13. weatherwiz
    I bet there some some NCEP issue going on. Don't see the GFS anywhere yet
  14. weatherwiz
    Agreed
  15. weatherwiz
    soggy flakes sounds like my cereal when I take too long to eat it
  16. weatherwiz
    WSW starting to fly
  17. weatherwiz
    It certainly is hit and miss (which even be said with the HRRR at 12 hours) but it's really great for assessing consistency and trends. So let's say the 0z HRRR tonight is in line with the NAM and then each subsequent run remains consistent...even though other guidance is suggesting otherwise, seeing the HRRR be consistent I think would be a strong indicator. not sure how well this works with winter weather but the idea works great with convection.
  18. weatherwiz
    Can't wait until the 0z HRRR tonight. That will go out to Saturday evening. I love following the HRRR to assess consistency/confidence. I thought all runs were running to 48-hours though as of Dec 1?
  19. weatherwiz
    meh it's just a difference of capture/phase and when that occurs. this run just wasn't aligned with everything...but the pieces are still there. I don't think it was totally far off from a big hit.
  20. weatherwiz
    I didn't have matching hours when comparing...just realized. but yeah it looks way southeast. Looks like the capture happens just too latE?
  21. weatherwiz
    Actually it doesn't seem all that different than 12z in terms of phase. Even have a pretty nice dual-jet stream going on
  22. weatherwiz
    it certainly is a close call. I certainly agree NE of us will get smoked. On my map though I did have CT jackpot in the NW hills (I mean can you ever go wrong with that lol)
  23. weatherwiz
    Thundersnow!!!
  24. weatherwiz
    COuld be a matter of how quickly H7 materializes and closes off. But even based on where the NAM has this occurring I would suspect the best banding gets shoved a bit NW with time and perhaps would be similar to where GFS hints.
  25. weatherwiz
    NAM not far off just different placement. wherever that sucker sets up is going to get smoked. I could see rates 3-4''/hour
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