weatherwiz

Agreed...I thought so too we might get better help from the EPO but that has really killed us. If the EPO was even slightly more favorable...I think we would be signing a different tune right now. Moving forward the ULJ looks to remain a bit stronger than average and I'm afraid we will get stuck in a progressive type pattern through the next month with very brief deviations...maybe we can sneak something in during these windows but I hate relying on that.

We are also a month or so away from what has started to become an annual February severe wx event

I just hope things sort of change and there is better storm potential. Just looking at the country over the next few weeks...for what's going into the "heart" of winter it's pretty meh.

Well folks, believe it or not, severe weather season is QUICKLY approaching. Yes we are moving into the dead of winter, however, once we reach the top, it's a rapid downhill tumble towards the month of May. Last season we had a few solid events, including the significant outbreak in CT. While we did have a few solid events, the overall convective season (in terms of events SUCKED). I was so pissed off. With COVID, I worked strictly from home from mid-March through I think it was late June or early July...and I live 2 MINUTES from BDL...I was so pumped thinking I would have so many opportunities to watch storms come in at BDL....I ONLY GOT TO GO 2 OR 3 TIMES AND IT WAS LATE SUMMER....UNACCEPTABLE. Let's hope this season fares better. With that said...let's get the countdown rolling with only 113 days to go!!!!!

It really just comes down to how the cards fall. Feb 2018...man everything fell in place nearly perfectly. Regardless of a SSW or not, there are some positives moving into the second half of the month...but I freaking hate saying this I feel like that phrase is worn out lol. But...continued signs for above-average heights into Greenland/Arctic region with a +PNA...SSW or not, those two things are good to see. Now if we can dump some cold into Canada (which also looks to happen)...well we got the pieces just gotta work with em.

Hopefully we can continue to keep punching above-average height anomalies into Greenland and into the Arctic region. The big key regarding the SSW too is the structure of the pattern in the upper troposphere and what's already in place. Maybe the SSW would be responsible, or a driver, into plunging colder air back into Canada and perhaps eventually our way, but if the North American pattern is kinda garbage preceding the SSW...it may not be much help for us. What I really like is the signal for a major ridge to become established across the eastern Pacific...very similar to what we actually saw much of the summer and fall. There also continue to be signals for higher pressure around Greenland and if that can remain the case and be strong the PV should get attacked and weakened. Question: Looking at 18z GFS ~200hr...is that classified as a wave-2 or wave-3 pattern?

meh only on the grassy surfaces

Do you know what county was hit hardest? From the times I looked it actually looked like Litchfield County had the most outages

Around 36K for peak in CT

But there is also a difference and this is something that also needs to be communicated better within these type of events. How common were these gusts? Common as in; 1) Were they more on a widespread scale or more localized? 2) Were these gusts common in the sense as they occurred frequently or was it something that happened to occur once at a specific location? This is another differentiator between the bigger events and the more mundane events. When we see the events produce we are seeing constant 60+ mph over the course of several hours...not just one gust tied into a convective band moving through.

It was a very tough forecast for sure. If I was coming off angry about the higher wind forecasts I apologize as that was not my intention at all. This really just goes to show how important communication is and how important it is to clearly communicate. But I never try to come across that way and I love hearing input from everyone and discussing the science behind everything. For this event, I didn't think we would see widespread significant wind gusts (60-70), but there were certainly a few more than I thought as well. This was also tied into that fine line of convection which really helped with these higher end wind gusts. I also agree, these torched low-levels and higher sfc dews would be a pretty strong indicator for higher-end wind gusts but the lapse rates were just horrific and I recall this being a huge differentiator between widespread higher-end wind potential and more localized higher-end gusts. Even going through so many bufkit profiles and playing around with the mixing layer depth...it was real tough to find consistent mixing drawing down super strong winds and I thought that was a big flag.

Strong to get some gusty CAA winds now. Bye-bye warmth

same here and with all the preparations made hopefully restorations will go very quickly.

Don't know what the peak was but highest I saw for customers without power in CT was just over 33K...down to just under 22K. Hopefully this will come down quickly.

I remember seeing something similar I think out in CO once. Took me forever of searching to figure out what it was. gahhhh

I think its something making the radar more sensitive...bugging me now lol

That's just something funky with the radar site I think. Seen it before but forget what it is.

Each run of the HRRR becomes slightly less enthused with max wind gusts overnight/early AM

looks like a possible TDS SW of clinton

Now I see...issued at 2:20 PM. Took forever to populate...didn't see it. Usually these things pop up on the mesoanalysis page but it hasn't.

how many tornado warnings are going to be issued before a watch is issued???

This is actually something that is violently underrated and communicated in these situations. Can be very disastrous.

glad we don't live there

finally starting to see the back edge of the precipitation shield transition over to a wintry mix/snow

Already a TOR down in NC