There's going to be a quite a bit of lift and divergence aloft, especially with that trough amplifying a bit across southeastern Canada...not to mention the abundance of instability. Rainfall rates are going to be pretty insane.
HRRR pretty nasty looking for tomorrow...actually favoring southern CT. If we get that much 3km CAPE with that shear...yikes
Also need to watch overnight and southern sections depending on track of Elsa.
Going to be a pretty wild day tomorrow I think
The difference between the GFS/NAM tomorrow in some of these Northeast locations is insane...typically the NAM tends to overdo the clouds but the NAM is HOT in the warm sector...also noting it does have NBM support. Anyways...if the NAM is correct tomorrow with alot of its output there is going to be a quite a bit of severe weather with at least a few tornadoes tomorrow. Does this extend much into SNE...I'm not sure but I definitely would watch into SW CT.