weatherwiz

barely even develops a closed H7 low lol

ughhh this is beautiful. but just imagine the subsidence hell on either side of this

also trying to account for subsidence b/c there will definitely be subsidence zone in the vicinity of where the CCB tracks. Once I'm more confident in CCB and where that traverses this will be altered a bit.

When pretty weenie with my first call I made earlier this afternoon. There were a few things I didn't like...such as potential for H7 low to track over CT or kinda be more elongated (same with 850 low) but the signals are there for some very intense banding to move across the state. Thinking we should do quite well on the ratios side too.

ehhh that's one subscription I'd rather pay for

Vegas is good for that too

Yes...I certainly agree with this. I still use COD on my phone but I keep hitting the drop down menus and the only way to get them to go away is click to another page then go back

use COD COD is so much better than TT...although TT does have some cool features (such as generating cross sections).

Looks to be a quite a bit of confluence over the region though...also a decent amount of PVA...biggest inhibiting factor could be dry air, but looks like RH increases...wouldn't be surprised to see precipitation blossom for sure but I don't think this is really much of a winter threat (accumulating wise anyways)

Agreed on everything here. In fact, I would not be surprised to see Monday sort of transition to more of a cyclogeneis deal...some hints at that within the upper-level jet structure (decent signal for cyclogenesis potential right off the coast) and this could be aided depending on how the northern/stream stream interact. But yeah...this could definitely have some implication on the mid-week potential, especially considering how it could impact how the pattern evolves upstream of us. But all the pieces are there for mid-week...decent high, 50/50 low, but all scenarios are certainly at play (north - stronger or south - weaker). These fast flows though that provide little assistance for stronger amplification always throw wrenches into things.

I heard they have like run out of bandwidth or something...or are having serious bandwidth issues. Our government needs to start re-funding NOAA. This past year has been ridiculous with problems.

The Euro for Monday was certainly quite intriguing. When looking at Euro preicip type just at face value and how it was configured, my initial thought was we were looking at a CAD signal here...but upon further inspection it appears this could be anafrontal generated (was this discussed in the previous thread?). The structure of the ULJ would certainly support this with some favorable large-scale lift behind the passage of the front. Anyways, very interesting euro but certainly hedging with caution with this type of setup. But that 500mb look is rather intriguing too...that's a pretty potent s/w trough digging in with an impressive southern stream vort. I would presume if we could get more phasing between the two this could be a nice event for many?

Everything aligning together very nicely for that area. Rates are going to be insane

700-500 fronto really starting to get going now!

Yes Yeah we had flipped but recently back to rain

All rain in bethel boo

All snow in Bethel and big fatties too

700-500 fronto setting up

Flipping to snow in Bethel, CT

This is going to be a crushing pate job here...really becoming concerned for power outages

if I adjust anything I would probably do the 3-6'' to 4-8'' and the 6-10'' to 8-12'' but that could be pushing a bit. Just a matter of how quickly the flip can happen. If this thing gets it act together even 2-3 hours faster a large part of CT gets crushed.

yes. I'm thinking 3-6'' there. may even bump to 4-8'.

18z NAM for BDL...sick thumpity humpity

in the real world, yes the sun does do that

I wonder if it has to do with it being daytime and models want to naturally keep temps up or slightly rise?