weatherwiz

yeah I doubt it's going to be that small

yeah that was kinda interesting

Looks like cloud tops are starting to cool in the vicinity of the center with cooling cloud tops. Though much of the convection is well south of the center

I don't think it would be isolated...probably be within some sort of narrow swath

Max rainfall amounts would absolutely approach or exceed a foot in a stalled or slow movement scenario

I hate posting euro stuff. never knows what's allowed too. Hopefully I don't go to jail

All of this is minute anyway. The only thing that matters is what Henri's strength, position, and movement is by this time tomorrow (actually several hours earlier). The models could all of a sudden shift the track to Europe...doesn't mean anything.

12z GEFS with a huge shift east

another noticeable jog west

could you go back to being a mod and delete posts

Gotta start thinking of wind potential too. I mean even several hours of gusts 40-50 mph is going to produce some widespread tree damage/power outages given how wet we are and how much rain we could get.

Good point. Can’t underestimate the NAO block here which is unseasonably strong

The ulvl low has seem to trend stronger on some models. Not a crazy ULJ but looks like a streak of 50-70 knots seems plausible. Orientation too would allow for some aided ulvl divergence

There's no way to tell what's an outlier and what isn't an outlier right now

If anything the Global + hurricane models look like a slight nudge west with 12z

All this does is further emphasize the point... stronger = west weaker = east

Looks like the northern edge of the storm gets completely demolished with very little convection and then once convection wraps around the center/develops on the north side it goes boom

I wonder if Phil is the pilot

I thought I read something on this a few years ago but is it true that in rare instances increased shear can strengthen (or act as a strengthening mechanism) a tropical system if it is aligned to the shear in a specific way.

Quite concerning for sure

11:00 A update maintains max winds of 70 mph

When it comes to tropical I put very little stock in the Euro. It's been pretty horrendous the past few years in that department.

Rotation looks incredibly weak in that TOR. Doesn't even look to be much actually

yeah until we have a clearer picture of Henri's strength/structure some of the details being focused on are pretty minute. Like Ray said, the fetish regarding model initialization strength is very strange. Agreed, which is why I' not 100% taking this at face value. It can be thrown out the window any time there is an opportunity for RI but I don't think we'll see any RI with this...despite the SSTA's being a few degrees C above-average they're still only around +28C to +29C which is a bit below the threshold that you would like to see for RI.

IMO. how models initialize strength right now is pretty useless for the overall picture here. Until we see how 1) Henri fully responds to the stronger shear through today 2) How much Henri intensifies when it moves into a more favorable environment...and it is this overall which will large depict what happens. The only thing model initialization is going to impact is {model} evolution of the storm. All we know right now is a range of possibilities.