weatherwiz

I've been meaning to start a thread for that low topped convection but I've been quite busy.

I was shocked to see HWW's already up off the lakes in NY, but I just looked at some of the bufkit soundings for ROC, BUF, and SYR and HOLY CRAP. Could see gusts 60-80 mph per bufkit soundings lol...sustained 25-40

I haven't had a 40 since December 12. Gave them up when I finished school lol. Usually when winter sucks for a while I start up the May 1 thread then winter hits with a vengeance. ughhh

Thank you! Let's get some post-Halloween damage

Euro indicates potential for some pretty strong wind gusts Friday. Speaking of winds...the situation in CA is going to get worse before it gets better. Insane Santa Ana winds looking likely tomorrow night and Wednesday. Kincade wildfire is only 10% contained too. Hopefully some progress will be made today as the winds subside a bit.

Well at some point things will happen...marriage or kids and once I go down that route it’s not just about what I want to do anymore. So I want to do all this stuff before then.

I would do that but I don’t think my friend wants to fly lol. Think he’s scared of flying...otherwise I’d totally do that My friends food expense will be massive...mine will be like next to minimal. I have hardly appetite at all the past almost year. I could get buy with a McDonald’s burger for lunch and dinner every night if needed. I just want to do this and need to do this now. I’m going to be 31...not many chances left

My friend and I are seriously considering doing storm chasing out west this spring!!! Biggest hurdle always is about how much money to have? (Gas, tolls, motels, food, any car maintenance...certainly would at least need one oil change perhaps).

Holy Alabama

Not a bad looking couplet there...also had a pretty decent increase in lightning as it tightened.

The state of AAM (at times) throughout the course of the winter may result in a hemispheric configuration which is opposite of what you would expect given the ENSO signal. Actually if we do want to talk ENSO...the weak EL Nino signal may be just enough to result in an expanded Hadley Cell which would not be good for CA.

These troughs have to be plummeting AAM...no wonder the atmosphere is in a Nina state. Be interesting to see how much longer this persists. This is also why I don't believe ENSO is going to be a strong contributor to the global pattern this winter....going to be too weak and it looks like there will be other factors which hold more weight...for example, AAM.

This isn't Euro so hope it's ok.

Am I allowed to post graphics from Ryan Mau'es site (using the pay version)? Anyways...NWS blend of models has high temperatures 30 to 40°F....30 to 40°F below-average.

My fingers are temped to start a low topped convective thread for end of next week

I did not know that...that's pretty cool (although if asked that on trivia would have probably just guessed CA ) I am sure the views are breathtaking...especially from what I've seen with photos...but not sure if that would be enough to make me live there haha. I'll take New England anyday

Oh man...sorry to hear that. Hope she was able to get out alright. The videos/pictures are beyond a worst nightmare. Probably the nice beaches lol...but seriously I don't see it either. Incredibly expensive, horrific air quality, non-stop traffic, mudslides, fires, earthquakes (I know its like like this everywhere...especially with traffic but)

I remember going out one year and it poured...it was miserable. My brothers and I all went as Barney and our costumes were all ripped

The GFS has been pretty meh in the medium-to-long range. It's become pretty obvious the GFS would cave into the Euro and with each successive run the GFS has been doing so. Every year when we get to this point in the fall the GFS becomes way too quick with these major pattern changes and significant (long lasting) cold shots. Sure they have happened before and eventually they will, but there just doesn't seem to be significant support across all suites for this.

CA is just a disaster. Couldn't pay me enough to live there.

I get super depressed scrolling through the instability maps through the duration of the run...this is sad. This isn't good...like I want spring and summer now. It's only October and way too early to start the May 1st countdown. This is going to be tough

This is just my own opinion, but I don't think there is really any merit to seasonal snowfall forecasting (and the same goes with tornadoes)...now you can certainly do something along the lines of a probabilistic standpoint indicating likelihood of above-average, around average, and below-average...but doing so by a range of totals...I don't think there is any skill or merit to it. There are way too many factors involved which you simply can't forecast (outside of short-term) and can't correlate to a specific pattern...one of them being how much snow a system can potentially produce.

The pictures out of the Geyserville, CA area are scary. I can't even imagine the fear those people are going through.

I've always taken extreme caution with correlations relating to precipitation (in this case snowfall and potential snowfall totals). Sure you can derive a general likelihood of what to expect based on pattern recognition, but at the end of the day (I think anyways) something like snowfall is tied more into how all pieces involved interact. We've had some damn good patterns fail to produce and we've had horrific patterns produce. I think at the end of the day it's embedded disturbances within the overall pattern which dictate the end result moreso than the overall pattern configuration.