weatherwiz

I could have swore it was like 3:45-4:00 but maybe it is 4:30

ughhhh where the hell is the 18z GFS? This past like year has been freaking awful with NCEP/NWS products. Horrific page loading issues, displaying previous maps, incorrect graphics, numerous issues with running models. HOW CAN THERE BE SO MANY ISSUES???? I can't stand technology...it's so great yet nothing but a piece of junk. then issues other places too...COD, had problems loading bufkit profiles from PSU...WTF IS GOING ON???????? FIX THINGS

I bet there some some NCEP issue going on. Don't see the GFS anywhere yet

Agreed

soggy flakes sounds like my cereal when I take too long to eat it

WSW starting to fly

It certainly is hit and miss (which even be said with the HRRR at 12 hours) but it's really great for assessing consistency and trends. So let's say the 0z HRRR tonight is in line with the NAM and then each subsequent run remains consistent...even though other guidance is suggesting otherwise, seeing the HRRR be consistent I think would be a strong indicator. not sure how well this works with winter weather but the idea works great with convection.

Can't wait until the 0z HRRR tonight. That will go out to Saturday evening. I love following the HRRR to assess consistency/confidence. I thought all runs were running to 48-hours though as of Dec 1?

meh it's just a difference of capture/phase and when that occurs. this run just wasn't aligned with everything...but the pieces are still there. I don't think it was totally far off from a big hit.

I didn't have matching hours when comparing...just realized. but yeah it looks way southeast. Looks like the capture happens just too latE?

Actually it doesn't seem all that different than 12z in terms of phase. Even have a pretty nice dual-jet stream going on

it certainly is a close call. I certainly agree NE of us will get smoked. On my map though I did have CT jackpot in the NW hills (I mean can you ever go wrong with that lol)

Thundersnow!!!

COuld be a matter of how quickly H7 materializes and closes off. But even based on where the NAM has this occurring I would suspect the best banding gets shoved a bit NW with time and perhaps would be similar to where GFS hints.

NAM not far off just different placement. wherever that sucker sets up is going to get smoked. I could see rates 3-4''/hour

This is going to be super exciting. Awesome to see guidance convergence on something fun and meaningful. I'm salivating at this band potential. Was looking at some bufkit soundings and holy smokes. GFS had like -30 to -40 units of omega tickle the DGZ at MHT Sorry if already posted

Woah you’re in Maine now? I’m def going to Randy’s during a winter threat. Best chance to get 8”...might even get some snow too

There could be a ton of convection which fires off the Carolina coast...I wonder if that could throw some wrenches into this.

The 18z GFS is notably faster with that southern vort...that thing is a beast too. Jet streak too already rounding base of trough as it moves through TN Valley...so maybe be west?

Seems to me like that's catching the "transition period" and is a bit biased towards that.

for NAO? I thought we wanted east-based -NAO? With west-based -NAO you run the risk of above-average heights ticking New England which is why if you look at some -NAO composites parts of Maine actually see above-average temperatures. West based also keeps the brunt of the colder airmass into the upper-Midwest with a storm track west of us. gotcha...thanks or this information! ughhh one of these days I can get back into this stuff.

The other big player here is QBO structure...I wish Sam Lillo still posted here but he did some amazing work with (I am pretty certain he developed this) the MQI. The research showed strong correlation to structure/SSW potential and influences on the stratosphere and upper troposphere. Speaking of ozone...I've wanted to look into this but is it possible all that smoke from the wildfires this summer/fall could play a big factor into the stratosphere and how it evolves...like doesn't smoke impact ozone production?

certainly don't disagree yeah and that SE ridge I feel like buckers things up b/c it shifts the trough axis west and we get these huggers or inland runners.

the best kind!

If it does happen I don't think it will be as intense as shown for these areas...it would be at the tail beginning of an organizing CCB. but given the thermal boundary we will be dealing with fronto should be pretty sick. This could do real well in northeast MA/southern NH.