weatherwiz

the only apparel I have one is my Bruins jersey

0z HRRR looking pretty good...gets NE CT to snow by midnight

I was thinking like 2-3 AM for you but these next 2-3 hours should really tell us

I wonder if Kevin can start to see a changeover around midnight...the 22z HRRR sort of argues for that.

yeah very true.

Despite being somewhat out of range the great consistency the HRRR has showed speaks alot of volumes. When the HRRR is that consistent for that long of a period it can be very difficult to beat

Been pouring rain all day. Thank God for Uber eats...didn't feel like going outside during lunch and get my hair wet. I had to run to my car after work then run inside my house but I'm good

Watching the CC ring collapse tonight will be fun.

GFS bufkit at BDL...wow. It's quite dry above the DGZ but looks pretty saturated in there with RH overlaid

some parts of the hills could get 3-6'' if this is correct...which I mean seems to becoming more plausible.

wow GFS even a bit interesting in northern CT for a few inches. CCB gets pretty close to grazing into BDL

o many weakened limbs and trees from the recent stretch of high winds the past year...when we crank up severe season in another month going to be seeing lots of damage this summer. If this is a summer we finally get a derecho...there may not be any trees left come September

Not sure what to make of it. I don't think it would be anything impressive but enough to just keep things going a bit longer. Maybe add another inch or two for the higher elevations.

I wonder if there is a window for a second short-lived extremely narrow band to develop tomorrow night (like between 3z-9z period) from like ORH down into northeast CT. Really tight window b/c occlusion has well occurred by this time and we're fighting the intrusion of dry air but the NAM does show a second pretty decent area of fronto develop during this time.

you might get smoked if the NAM verifies. Really tightens up H7 just off to your east with a pretty impressive fronto band just west of it...which happens to look to be from like ORH to you

yeah looks like a quite a bit of dry air wraps around the western side of this thing as it really starts to crank. but the NAM really isn't budging from the idea of accumulating snow even into some of the valley areas.

18z NAM looks slightly more amplified through 24

southern VT through the Berkshires into NW CT going to get absolutely smoked.

GFS even trying to pop a severe threat April 27/28 across parts of NY/PA!!!!! Of course too the day I'm scheduled for my second shot so probably can't chase ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Would suspect NW CT gets nailed on the GFS...wow

ahhh yeah that might have been February. I guess we just have to ask ourselves, what needs to happen for the shortwave to become elongated like that and what needs to happen to drop the ULL to close off either over or south of Long Island? but speaking of that event I think we were dealing with a SLP which was more elongated and never became tightly wrapped...this situation it looks like that happens. While the 12z run is still just south of our area with the SLP (which is a good thing when you consider the likelihood of this system becoming vertically stacked) the 12z run of the NAM isn't as closed off the H5 as some of the previous runs...it keeps it a bit more elongated. Some of the previous runs popped a tight contour just south of Long Island. Given the high baroclinicity that is going to be in place it really won't take much adjustment south for the SLP to really explode. Is that likely? Probably not but given the potential that would unfold should that happen...it shouldn't be totally written off, even if the percent probability is like 3

While I would love to see a few to several inches outside of the hills (and not totally ruling it out yet) I do think it's going to be quite difficult unless it can rip for a good period of time...I do at least think there is room for most to see rain to flip to snow with some bursts of heavier snow but accumulations will be tough...especially given how crappy the ratios should be.

Here is IJD...not too terrible looking

This kinda of reminds me of a setup that I think was kinda similar and not really that long ago...maybe March? The NAM was pretty insistent that H5 would drop to our south while the globals were like right over us...ultimately the globals won. I guess we just need some reason to believe that H5 will become more elongated and pop to our south. I think at least the NW hills could get pounded pretty good. Majority of us still probably see some wintry precip given how cold low-levels are.

the NAM is not budging...kinda would have thought it would maybe head in the other direction with this run but nope. If GFS inches closer to the NAM with the 12z run (which the past few GFS/euro runs have) well...this is quite interesting. The challenge is conveying this lol