weatherwiz

I am quite surprised at the PNA signal. Would have to look through records (which perhaps I'll do after this post) but I would think this would be approaching record territory for May. Usually the PNA signal really starts waning by now. Not a good look for those that like the chase in the mid-west.

When I was at WestConn Westside Campus I think was like up around 700' while the bottom of the hill was maybe a couple hundred...if even that. Anyways it was about a mile from the top of the hill to the bottom (or maybe 3/4 of a mile). I remember a couple times driving and it would be rain at the bottom and as you got higher it would flip and at the top there would be a coating+ of snow. I've done the walk a few times and it's super cool when you get to the transition spot.

The waiting game just sucks. I always figure our best likelihood for a higher-end severe threat is usually from like mid-to-late may through mid-July. After mid-July we usually begin to establish deep SW flow through the column and have to deal with poor lapse rates.

I guess we going to go through May without severe wx...what a joke

Nothing maddens me more than this whole snow record keeping debacle which occurred during the window in the 90's...how completely irresponsible and utterly ridiculous. What tops it all too is...the errors are INCLUDED in calculations for averages...how absurd. I mean fine...a huge mishap occurred with the record but don't incorporate that into averages.

also didn't they use an incorrect 1995-1996 seasonal snowfall total number for BDL?

All the high CAPE stays in the Plains It's such torture watching it creep east on the models an then when it gets to the door of the Northeast...BOOM it retreats back. It's like being at a concert sitting in the front row and having Taylor Swift come at you then go back to the stage.

maybe the person measuring is high

The central Plains into the Missouri Valley could get quite active moving through next week...maybe into the Ohio Valley. Sometimes a good precursor to us!!!

I'm a bit skeptical about flipping straight to "warm" or "heat". Still quite a bit of a trough signal, even on the EPS from the Arctic down through eastern Canada into New England. The brunt of the warmth in that pattern looks to be just to our SW. I mean eventually it will start to get warmer as climo increases but not totally sold we get into big time (long lasting) just yet

Why did Kevin quote me and not say anything?

I've been trying to get a hold of the oral surgeon for like 3 months...left voice messages AND THEY NEVER CALL BACK

I mean Sunday doesn't look too terrible. GFS advertises some sort of potential around the 18th with that strong s/w ejection across the West. But as long as the pattern remains dominated by a West Ridge/East trough...going to be tough to get big events but given the time of year we are in all it takes is one weakness in the pattern or one good s/w to dice through the west and boom potential on the table

Really great point

don't pee on my leg and tell me it's raining

What I would really like to see is data going back say over the last 50 years showing the number of like 60+, 70+, 80+ days during the months of March, April, and May and see if there has been an increase in the number of days for these occurrences over the years (I think we know the answer to this but would be nice to see). it seems no matter hat transpires over the course of the month...at the end of it we end up above-average in terms of temperatures. We probably could have gotten a 2' blizzard April 17 and below-average temperatures for 4-days centered around that date...and the month would still finish AN. The thing is our warm days...seem to overperform and by several-pus degrees and of course we have nights where temperatures remain above-average (which this is what seems to be driving the AN times...warmer overnight lows as opposed to daytime highs). The only way we really hit climo is getting these below-average airmasses and we somehow still manage to spike to climo values.

Not debating that. There were a few days where we had cold airmasses where you would have expected temperatures to end up a bit warmer...there was one day (maybe in april) where even with full sun we struggled a bit.

We've actually seen a few times this spring these cold air masses winning out...you would expect stronger sun angle and mixing to compensate but that hasn't been the case. Think maybe we have just had trouble mixing in these situations?

you can't just use dewpoints alone to determine whether an airmass is dry...you gotta relate it to temperature. Dewpoints tomorrow look to be into the lower 40's...now if the temperatures were 60's...70's+ yeah it would be pretty damn dry but with temperatures into the 50's...it's not that dry...while there is some dewpoint depression there it's pretty moist in the llvls and mlvls. don't think there will be much virga tomorrow.

lots of dry air??? the column is pretty saturated across the region tomorrow

May even see some grauple tomorrow

There's going to be many places tomorrow which struggle to probably get out of the 40's

I think the majority of that is with that axis of rain/thunderstorms expected to move across PA/western NY later tonight. Tomorrow during the day we should see numerous showers pop with the steep lapse rates and residual llvl moisture around. Certainly not going to be any washouts or big rain totals but just lots of light showers...maybe even some orographic component which is kinda hinted at based on the structure of those amounts across our region.

There should be numerous showers around tomorrow...especially second half of the day.

I have been having this same exact problem too.