Don't know what the peak was but highest I saw for customers without power in CT was just over 33K...down to just under 22K. Hopefully this will come down quickly.
Well it's been quite a while since we've had a major ice storm.
Thus far we had Isaias, tornado event/RFD induced damage, parts of the state nailed by the serial derecho, widespread 10-12'' snowstorm, let's put 2020 on....ice
I wonder if there is a small window to develop some discrete convection ahead of the main rain shield. There are subtle hints this is possible. Those 3km CAPE values aren't too terrible but it is also possible the shear is just too strong and those value might not be enough for updrafts to fully establish...or at least not enough to utilize the dynamics.
Part of it too is I think they've probably been heavily briefed on this for several days. I mean this storm signal has been there for a week. They've certainly had plenty of lead time
Yeah definitely becoming more of a concern. And this is why I was more conservative with thoughts on wind...but if this convection does verify with that leading dry slot we are screwed...well especially out your way. There is some possibility though that the majority of the line end up passing more of E CT (which screws you but would be some better news for much of the state).
Do you think there is room for a narrow dry slot ahead of the convective line? Looks like the hi-res models are kinda picking up on that. That would certainly escalate higher-end gust potential
I think that's where the best winds will end up.
I'm still torn about here in CT. The core of the 925 winds may only brush across the southern part of the state. The HRRR too has a bit more in the way of lightning density than I would have envisioned. If the convective stuff happens we're pretty screwed. And right now those signals seem to be getting stronger (for convection).