weatherwiz

Bermuda could be in big trouble

The probability is super, super low but certainly not 0% so does bear to be peaked at. I think having such higher latitude and the fact that it will be gaining latitude over the next several days vastly increases any odds of it impacting the coast (outside of swells of course). If it stayed on more of a due west course towards Cuba and SE US. well...could have been interesting

These past few months have been pretty crazy here in the Northeast. So much to be impressed about but I'm not sure if nothing impresses me more than the fact that NJ has had 11-tornadoes this year including an EF-2 and an EF-3. I really miss tornadohistoryproject.com because it was so easy to manipulate tornado data but I would say this has to be like top 2 year for them...maybe 1989 would be #1?

Wednesday something to watch. No outbreak or high-end event...but some localized severe weather possible.

If I want beauty I'll look at a post card or a Picasso. If people want colors...buy a giant bag of skittles.

Had to put the heat on for a bit in the car this AM...then had to switch to A/C when the sun angle started increasing. I HATE THIS TIME OF YEAR. Oh...I also saw leaves changing and some leaves down (not from wind...like leaves that had changed color and moved onto the afterlife). AHHHHHHH

some crazy bombogenesis nor'easter in November will find a way to transport enough cold air into northern FL that you see rain end as snow while we're 60's with rain

ughh that sounds awesome. Those are the best part of nighttime storms. This was just purely epic. I don't know if this was posted at all but I was looking this morning and the remnant circulation of Ida actually strengthened as it moved across our region (which shouldn't come as a shock given that ulvl jet streak) but NHC had it up to 40 mph. I totally agree with you too...something along the lines of a "Tropical Storm" watch/warning should have been used. I mean who cares if it doesn't fit the scientific definition of it...I mean in terms of the science side I get in terms of public impact this was right up there with what you would expect from a TS. Same reasons why with severe they have your regular old severe thunderstorm/tornado watches and PDS watches...something higher scale to really communicate the more extreme risk. Maybe there needs to be consideration for additional types of flood watches...extreme flood watch, significant flood watch...idk something. Kinda dumb that a flash flood watch for 2-3'' in a thunderstorm tries to communicate the same as a 4-7'' rain event in the span of a few hours.

There's also still EML hope!!!

my legs get cold

Agreed...went on my Pokewalk a few hours ago and it was chilly...finally warmed up from walking but I miss walking when it was 90 and humid

make that 9 then

So far by my count 8-confirmed tornadoes Massachusetts - 1: EF0 NJ - 3: EF0, EF1, EF3 PA - 4: EF1, EF2, 2 NR yet MD - 2: EF0, EF2 EF0's: 3 EF1's: 2 EF2's: 2 EF3's: 1 Not Rated yet: 2

Decisions are also tied into the type of weather alert. This is what I was getting at too yesterday when this event needed something stronger than just a Flash Flood Watch. Yes, all meteorologists who are responsible for communicating to the public did an incredible job highlighting the risks, but when you have decision makers and there is movement to institute certain restrictions they'll go "well it's just a flash flood watch". I mean we see flash flood watches on days when convection is forecast and there is hardly any shear so thunderstorms just dump on a location.

Tracking Larry is going to be a bit uneasy. Should that initial trough not capture it and pull it out to sea...it would have a path towards the EC

EWR recorded 8.41'' of rain yesterday. That's freaking insane. Their September average is 3.82''

Precisely. I mentioned that on Twitter a few months back and got some kickback. Some farmers apparently think b/c they have had dry soil for a few years we're in extreme drought. Wasn't necessarily referencing anyone here (but yes he would fit in this boat) moreso social media...aka twitter

It's insane to think that even 3-months ago everyone was crying drought...now look at us.

Just jaw dropping what transpired yesterday. Pretty transpired and played out exactly how it looked to do so. From the several tornadoes - including at least one strong/violent one to the widespread flash flooding. The videos are out of this world

Very nasty headed towards Norwalk. this whole night is just jaw dropping

These ulvl dynamics are no joke. There is a ton of ulvl divergence. Once the remnants of Ida interact with this even more...oh joy

There's the mention for some strong tornadoes...actually use "intense". That's my concern for coastal areas here later * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible

Pretty good agreement that we'll see as much as 1000-1500 J/ML CAPE with 150+ J 3km CAPE push into coastal CT, RI, and SE MA. You throw those numbers into the shear we have and it gets quite concerning, especially since we're talking after dark. Often times you look at convection being low topped in these setups...but I don't think that is going to be the case here and that alone should increase TOR potential

toss the models at this point. mesoanalysis is where it's at