weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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Certainly intriguing to see intensity guidance trend a bit less impressive with how much Henry strengthens. As been stated before...intensity guidance shouldn't be taken as gospel but until there is clear-cut evidence it is wrong it can't be ignored
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Pretty impressive convection around center. -80C to -90C cloud tops...wow
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Curious to see what NHC does at 11 with the track but I would think we see a sizable shift west with the western edge of the cone and subsequent shift west with forecast track
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probably with the 11:00 AM updates
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theme keeps going with a slight jog west
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yeah pretty much all we're waiting on now...just need to fast forward another 12-16 hours and we'll have a narrowed down area on potential landfall
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Until we see Henri making a more north turn might have to lean more towards a much farther west track in the end game
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Pretty big shift west...
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yeah I doubt it's going to be that small
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yeah that was kinda interesting
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Looks like cloud tops are starting to cool in the vicinity of the center with cooling cloud tops. Though much of the convection is well south of the center
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I don't think it would be isolated...probably be within some sort of narrow swath
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Max rainfall amounts would absolutely approach or exceed a foot in a stalled or slow movement scenario
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I hate posting euro stuff. never knows what's allowed too. Hopefully I don't go to jail
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All of this is minute anyway. The only thing that matters is what Henri's strength, position, and movement is by this time tomorrow (actually several hours earlier). The models could all of a sudden shift the track to Europe...doesn't mean anything.
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12z GEFS with a huge shift east
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another noticeable jog west
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could you go back to being a mod and delete posts
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Gotta start thinking of wind potential too. I mean even several hours of gusts 40-50 mph is going to produce some widespread tree damage/power outages given how wet we are and how much rain we could get.
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Good point. Can’t underestimate the NAO block here which is unseasonably strong
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The ulvl low has seem to trend stronger on some models. Not a crazy ULJ but looks like a streak of 50-70 knots seems plausible. Orientation too would allow for some aided ulvl divergence
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There's no way to tell what's an outlier and what isn't an outlier right now
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If anything the Global + hurricane models look like a slight nudge west with 12z
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All this does is further emphasize the point... stronger = west weaker = east
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Looks like the northern edge of the storm gets completely demolished with very little convection and then once convection wraps around the center/develops on the north side it goes boom
