weatherwiz

At the start of this thread, May is only 6-days away which means the start of severe weather season is right around the corner!!! April has proven to be a rather typical spring month here in New England with some rather warm days, some rather chilly days, days with rain, and even some snow. As we head towards the month of May, there are some conflicting signals within the long-range guidance. If one just looks at an averaged 500mb pattern you can draw conclusions, but at the end of the day those conclusions will probably not be accurate. The conflicting signals likely correlate to the fact that the pattern across North America will continue to remain volatile and perhaps dominated by a series of ridges/troughs propagating through the country. One of the biggest factors may be how the pattern is configured around the Arctic (most notable the NAO/AO). Typically, these indices start having less influence on the pattern as you move through spring, but they can certainly shape the pattern and play big factors through May. And unfortunately, there are conflicting signals on the evolution of these indices moving through May. Let's just hope that whatever happens, we can get into some patterns which usher in big heat, high humidity, EML's, and lots of convection!!

lawns were only good for passing out on after too many 40's

Everything always starts growing at about the same time every year...the same time. Conditions can certainly speed up the rate of growth or slow down the rate of growth but things will always start around the same time. It's encoded in plans/trees/grass DNA.

As long as something is living...it's growing.

EML's for all.

I hope we don't have to deal with a persist cyclone like we did the first few months of last spring/summer but it keeps popping up on models. I hope as we go deep into May the pattern alters slightly (no low heights just to our north) and we can run a train of EML's in here

ahh this is more like it

The wind gusts are crazy. Are there links for like real-time wind speeds? I'm in Springfield and checked what CEF was reporting along with BDL and the wind gusts on the last obs certainly is far less than what's going on now.

Getting chilly with the rain but it smells so good.

Lightning increasing around that broad meso

Please strengthen so the warning can be extended!!!!!! Don’t weaken…don’t pull this weakening shit. Everywhere I fooking go storms always gotta fooking weaken.

Thunder!!!!!

hoping for a slight more east trajectory

tyeah should be close. which side are you on?

That cell is definitely riding a boundary. Some enhanced shear along it

NASTY cell over Norfolk .

hmm that's a nice looking potentially developing meso on that cell heading towards me in Springfield!!!!!!! Maybe I'll get to see the Springfield tornado...only 11 years later

Nice storms in NW CT. Could be some hail in that nasty core

Looks like maybe showers in Boston Saturday...boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo was hoping to go out and bar hop after and celebrate the Bruins clinching a playoff spot

When there is the chance for convection... Clearing through the mornings equals afternoon severe thunderstorm warnings

While there remains some uncertainty, there has been a strengthening consensus that a warm front boundary will penetrate at least Connecticut and the western half of Massachusetts Thursday with anomalously warm low-level airmass within the warm sector. Given the likelihood for partly sunny skies within the warm sector, this should yield temperatures climbing into the 70's to even near 80 away from coastal influences. While moisture will be lacking (dewpoints only into the 50's) the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates (6.5 - 7 C/KM) will help contribute to modest instability (~250 J/KG of MLCAPE). Combination of modest forcing from the approaching cold front and instability should aid in the development of a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. Given low-level jet ~30 knots plus inverted-V profiles this will result in the potential for some localized strong-to-damaging wind gusts within the line with the greatest potential west of the I-84 corridor. I am shocked at the Slight risk. Thought we would only see marginal. The forcing doesn't look that impressive (with only aid from the front) and the LLJ actually weakens through the day.