weatherwiz

I was trying to time that strongest lift with the arrival of the heavier precip...it did seem to somewhat match. But I do think we'll be dealing with some virga initially but if the intensities pan out hopefully it's brief. Coolwx is certainly much more efficient then loading up bufkit profiles. A pretty underrated site as well for data. The ice aspect is definitely a tad concerning...though I still think we will fall sort of a significant icing event but it will be bad enough to impact travel. But in terms of the school cancellation stuff...tomorrow isn't really about snow...it's more the ice aspect. But I remember it being nearly impossible for West Hartford to cancel school growing up...every other surrounding school would be closed and we would be open or delayed. Snow totals had to be like 6-8"+ for us to have school cancelled...with the majority still falling during the early morning.

They cancel school for 2 flakes now.

I certainly wonder if there can be like a 4-6'' spot up along the CT/MA border. Strongest lift here is just above the DGZ but the front end potential with this looks pretty intriguing.

The NAM never seems to handle these events well...outside of the CAD in the valleys but like Ray said it’s often too aggressive with mlvl warmth. Also seems to want to be too dry at the onset of things. After all the experience we have had with these in the boards...you almost don’t even need to look at models inside if like 24-48 hours to see how these event's will perform I came home to...hardly any snow pack. When I left the morning I still had some inches but it’s virtually gone

Can’t ban me

Oh yeah...if the colder trends continue then absolutely. I would certainly adjust if that were the case. Right now though not 100% confident that happens (though I would hedge that way)

The ice map is for freezing rain...not sleet. Freezing rain will occur over a larger area but I highlighted where best chance of freezing rain may accrete.

Just did a map. These setups use to drive me nuts but they seem to be pretty straight forward...a few inches of snow, then some sleet/ice , then some rain. Hardest aspect is determining how much sleet vs. how much freezing rain. Soundings at BDL do have extending period for some freezing rain but I don't think we're looking at a significant icing event...enough though to make for ad travel.

I talked to Boyle a bit about bufkit and he wasn't happy it wasn't taught in any of the classes. It actually could have tied in great in thermo when doing the cloud physics section

I asked him once if he knew about it and if we could ever work with it and he said yeah I've used it. the computers in the weather center didn't even have bufkit...I had to send an email for it to happen.

ahhh growth...that makes sense. I think I remember that the structure of it ties into where temperatures fall between -10C and -20C. I only learned about bufkit from here...it was never once mentioned in any class. I agree...there should be a class devoted to bufkit...or at least included with Weather Analysis and Forecasting

I always like to try to explain it when I do blog posts but I always feel like I'm explaining it incorrectly or confusing. What I sort of struggle with is the stricture of it I guess..and why the structure is the way it is...for example on the right side of the image the shape of the 10, 15, 20. I hate when you look at something and you understand the significance of it (so like I understand when you see omega and lower omega values within this zone...that is great for snow) but you don't know how to explain it and properly. I thought we would do stuff in school with bufkit...but nobody even really heard of it or used it lol

Here is something I always forget...forget in the sense that I don't know how to explain it to others. It's regarding the snow growth overlay on bufkit. I understand the significant of the purple and yellow contours (which compose of the snow growth zone) but I don't know how to explain them. Each of those contours is temp right?

I want to see saggy trees and hear transformers pop

12z GFS doesn't appear to be as robust with severe potential in the south...particularly around LA ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

It happens quite a bit on twitter from hobbyists and I'm sure I've seen other meteorologists say it too lol. I want to count how many times I hear people say it this weekend...will be fun

If you have at least some background of weather you should know not to make that connection...it's much more understandable for the general public to say that.

I want to throw my phone everytime I see this mentioned on twitter. I think this is a good time for a twitter rant on this subject

Where's @OceanStWx I actually don't know a whole lot about Mexican EML's but I think they're different than EML's originated in the southwest U.S. Obviously the processes are the same but I wonder what the differences are between Mexican EML and southwest US EML.

Actually what could make things really interesting in the south is it looks like there is a pretty decent EML that advects in from the Mexican Plateau. Remember that sounding game we were playing months back? Time to play it again...that's a pretty solid sounding for December...anywhere in the country. Could be an early start to the severe Monday morning across LA...I could see tornadic supercells initiating quickly then becoming linear and producing a damaging squall line through TN and GA!!!!

I'm pretty intrigued by the severe weather potential Monday....especially down in LA where initiation looks to begin...best chance for supercells initially...have to see how quickly the llvl flow backs.

I think I may actually remember that...didn't that really crush Litchfield County and NW HFD cty? hey...that winter was solid...I think BDL had like 93''

The cut-off was pretty crazy too...going from Branford to North Branford was nothing to ice on all the trees and wires

CT just missed out in 2008. I don't remember the 2005 one...not sure why. The 2017 was pretty decent..wasn't far off from being a pretty significant deal. I remember the 1998 one quite well...that was fun

I want a good ice storm. when was the last real damaging ice storm we had? Dec 08? But even down in CT...can't really remember anything significant since 98...although there might have been a decent one in 2002?