weatherwiz

Your dewpoint is 70???

I'm not totally sure how far east the severe threat will hold. There is more than enough dynamical support, however, instability is lacking due to poor mid-level lapse rates and low dewpoints. The wind threat is thriving off of dry low-level air (large Td) and steep low-level lapse rates. However, models do show some theta-e pooling which may increase dewpoints a bit through the remainder of the afternoon and we continue to have good dynamical support with decent height falls. There are also indications this line could form a cold pool somewhat steepening the lapse rates and bumping instability a bit. Not sure how far south in CT this gets though...may be more closer to the Pike or just south

No derecho

What a profile. why can't we get

18z runs slowed timing by quite a bit

If anything the lower dews could help support some wind damage potential due to a stronger T/Td depression...especially if llvl lapse rates remain quite steep even after sunset

Not really because guidance hasn't really looked impressive enough but 12z guidance has come in a bit better so I would think we see a marginal with the 1730z update.

Low-ish dewpoints tomorrow one of the biggest inhibitor in what actually could be a pretty decent day for severe

Is there a max height ASOS stations will report for sky cover/conditions?

The HRRR loves those supercells But there definitely could be some enhanced shear right along the boundary up there.

Could see a few strong storms later tomorrow

There are certainly going to be several shortwaves and fronts thrown our way over the next 10-14 days with that signal of troughing into the Great Lakes region so it will certainly be "active" with shower/thunderstorm chances. We will probably see a mixture of dry periods/unsettled periods with each period probably lasting 2-3 days at a time. Leading into the unsettled periods we'll see some warm/hot and humid weather and behind the fronts it will be seasonable-to-below average with very low dewpoints.

There is certainly some pretty solid elevated CAPE around. Only issue is convective coverage. Should see some storms around later on, especially western areas, and what does form could have a decent amount of lightning.

It’s kinda chilly out

Cold pools FTW

Ridiculous

when thunder roars head outdoors

Going to Red Sox/Yankees tomorrow. Couldn't ask for better weather. Love the 4:00 start too...won't get home super late.

Hopefully the roles are reversed this winter and the west gets a trough and we get a massive ridge

Yes, but I don't think this is one of those times. I'm actually a big fan of west-to-east moving warm fronts and potential for severe weather along them but seems like there isn't much in the way of instability to work with along it...there is a bit of a lag between the front and much higher theta-e air. We actually could see the severe threat persist through Sunday night...may actually be higher evening/overnight

I don't really see much going on with the warm front but the afternoon could see some nasty storms (including potential for a tornado) depending on how well we destabilize.

Could actually be a pretty big severe day Wednesday if the front times right

IT'S COMING BABY!!!! It's going to happen....it's happening whether you like it or not. Prepare...prepare

That was awful...that infield was a disaster. Someone could have gotten hurt.

Fenway just got destroyed