weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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Almost forgot 18z GFS is running. Anthony forgot to remind us...what a slacker -
Just give me a 980's or 970's low as it's passing southeast. Getting anything deeper (especially too intense deepening) and bad things happen. Precip starts to get more banded so while some cash in you need to be lucky and occlusion can happen to rapidly so you choke off the moist inflow and the CCB just shuts off and everything goes to poop. Save the 950's for tropical
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Beautiful. I have a shaky hand.
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now's the time to upgrade the camera...by like 50 generations
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Some decent WAA well out ahead of it with just enough lift
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Game 6 EDIT: Will beat me to it. Should have figured
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About 2,500 feet. That is insane. Dendrites will be ripped to shreddies. Going to have to keep this in mind when making snowfall forecasts and ratios.
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This is most likely going to happen. We're going to see two bands with two max areas and subsidence screw zones in between.
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How did people live before model snowfall maps
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I think it depends. When the H7 low is more tightly closed off and consolidated I think this usually results in the deformation fairly close to the center...like 50-75 miles NW but when it's more elongated in nature the best deformation is significantly farther northwest (like 75-100 miles). Inflow should be phenomenal.
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Although I wonder if this is a situation where the initial bad (which will be the strongest) actually materializes much farther NW than what is being shown and then as the storm matures and the centers tighten, the band then collapse and traverses over much of the region then finally sitting and rotting (probably eastern sections) and during this transition a second more weaker band materializes like 75-miles or whatever west of the main band.
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Don't really like where the 700 low is developing and closing off.
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EWB. The best part of big snow events...is looking at omega values on buflit. This also shows there is going to be serious subsidence somewhere. Cross sections are going to display this super well
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Very poetic. I feel better already
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This pisses me off..any other day 12z GFS bufkit is out by now. ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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May see legit thunderstorms out on the Cape. Severe thunderstorms containing heavy snow
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dual-band signature very apparent here
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12-24''+ of snow > relationship
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I know it's early but I can wait to check out some 12z GFS bufkit profiles. Betting we see like -60 to -70 units of omega popping...hopefully well into the DGZ
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Agreed...and IIRC that was something that was overlooked heading into the storm. There was so much focus on what looked great that many flags were missed.
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Absolutely...that's pretty much a given I think. Some are going to get screwed compared to some around them.
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It's actually not uncommon to see two bands unfold in major storms like this. And they can be a forecast killer (in both directions) b/c you can get some serious subsidence between the two. In some cases the two bands will even consolidate and all hell just breaks lose under it
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The degree of dynamic cooling is jaw dropping on this. The distance between like +11C to +12C and -13C to -14C (talking 850 temps) is very small.
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Historic snowfall rates are probable if this verified.
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Looks like +11C or s at the core The moisture inflow into the CCB is going to be ridiculous
