weatherwiz

It's always tough...even when you think the sound will be of zero influence it still seems to be a factor lol. What I think happens is there is still enough of a gradient between land/ocean that you still generate at least a localized and very confined area of winds with a southerly/easterly component...it's just so localized and small models won't pick it up.

These type of fronts almost always are associated with snow squalls. these are different than polar fronts which are more common.

Wednesday looks fun. Wish we had some steeper lapse rates involved b/c I would throw the lightning flags around. Speaking of lightning...I hope they do some special balloon launches in the south today!!!

These things are even worse than the snow maps

I agree...also 1/2'' of ice isn't very easy to get. We def start getting problems with less...especially if there is accumulating snow involved just prior.

The immediate shoreline is tough...with it still being early in the season it doesn't take much of a easterly component to the wind to bump sfc temps just above freezing. I think they may see some...but probably generally under .10''.

This storm is going to be super exciting. We get to track a tornado outbreak in the south today and then quickly shift gears and watch us get snow and ice.

Updated forecast WOAH at the SPC outlook “environment will support risk for multiple significant tornadoes”

I think you may have mentioned that could be the focal zone the other day...pretty solid call. Now it's just a matter of how much ZR we're talking about.

Holy smokes

yeah the RGEM has me pretty damn concerned. that's a pretty decent signal across central CT.

I love the famous "I have 4-wheel drive I'll be fine" line (it's ice not snow...unless your tires have custom made ice skates...good luck)

I typically bump up the expected changeover by an hour or two from what models indicate. Yeah I'm not sure if this will be a big icing event...but we may straddle the line between issues and a bit more in the way of major issues (major issues being scattered power outages and some tree damage)

With this...that makes the snowfall forecast just as important. If we get 3-4'' of snow followed by ice it will further enhance potential for some bigger issues.

That's certainly in my mind...though I am going to place that closer to the border...mlvls always seem to warm rather quick. I am a little concerned b/c if we see ice accretion pushing .4'' that's sticking the head right into the start of some trouble territory.

I don't like how the NAM only has central/northern CT only in the upper 20's to around 30 for much of tomorrow. Also props to @JGNYK03 for pointing out the discrepancy with my initial ice forecast map from Saturday...definitely going to be a much larger (and more uniform) even close down to the coast. Going to correct that with an update later this morning...along with adding a 4-6'' stripe along the CT/MA border.

Looks like it will go sick with the thump....great sign

Has anyone had the chance to see how much longer after the model initiation start time does the HRRv4 actually initialize? 12z a no go yet on cod

there could be some nasty snow squalls Wednesday.

This deserve thread of the year decade

I was getting a little nervous yesterday b/c it was looking like the core of the WAA was actually going to weaken prior to arriving into SNE...but the latest signals are a bit impressive. I am a bit nervous though down this way...there is some pretty strong lift overhead after the warmth aloft has moved through...we could have a period of some moderate-to-heavy ZR

It's a pretty good sign to see the front end lift here starting to emerge a bit more strongly on the models. You can actually see the isobars on the MSLP charts on the NAM really sort of tighten up and cluster closer together on the NAM...pretty good sign for heavier precip/lift

I took the 45 days of winter (or however it was phrased) as more of a tongue-in-cheek comment than in actual seriousness. The bolded is pretty funny...and probably spot on But trolling or whatever aside...the premise of the thoughts aren't very unreasonable. I don't have a problem with Dr. Dews or his posting style (everyone has their own) and not saying I endorsed anything...just that it isn't totally unreasonable given the uncertainties for the second half of this month.

Just over the border into MA...pretty good looking. Looks like some nice lift around the DGZ as well. Maybe 1.5''/Hr?

In all fairness Dr. Dews isn't completely off here. Obviously things can change moving into January and February (as we've seen in the past). Yes it isn't officially winter yet and yes we have been active in the storms department with many places above-average in snowfall...but we've also had our share of cutters and warm events. The signals moving through the remainder of the month and to at least start January are incredibly mixed and can go either way. The PAC is quite volatile and is going to remain that way for some time. As long as this is the case, all possibilities from one side of the spectrum to the other are always going to be at play. We've been lucky to cash in on the potential's we have had, however, that doesn't mean that will continue to be the theme. As great as it is to have "favorable patterns" for snow/winter events...it doesn't always guarantee them. With our region we can easily have a great pattern and miss out...we can have an awful pattern but if the cards align perfectly we can cash in on that brief opportunity. When you see models flip-flop like they have for the end of the month...that should be a huge flag and you can say all you want, analyze all you want, but until some sort of signal remains consistent...there is just no way of knowing which side will win.