weatherwiz

The NAO is trending negative as this is unfolding which is I believe what you typically want to see...but this goes to show there is much more to snow/cold than just the NAO. It actually even looks like we have a pseudo 50/50 low which usually is a good thing as well (but might actually also be enhancing the ridging). The big problem is the system becomes so amped and does so too early and we develop strong upstream ridging. With the core of the ridging across northern New England this acts as a block in a sense and the storm goes west

Comparing between two different sources so resolution could be a factor but through at least 114 there don't seem to be major differences at H5 between the GFS/Euro...they actually appear to be pretty damn similar...not just with the southern s/w but the one digging in the northern stream too

You can't totally just use SLP as a means to justify this but the difference really lies within H5. The potential was actually there on the 6z run from Jan 10 but certainly it wasn't anything screaming noteworthy. The difference really comes down to how the initial wave of energy was being handled as it moved into the U.S. The GFS initially had this energy going from the upper-Midwest across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Since then the GFS has been much more bullish of driving this s/w through the Missouri Valley into the Tennessee Valley. I wouldn't use this as an example or a means to say the GFS sucks...this just goes to show how complex the pattern is and how even subtle changes whether it's strength of ridging/troughing how each of these features evolve, and what happens to s/w energy during these evolutions. At this point the s/w of interest was probably over who the hell knows.

At this juncture it's almost worthless or even pointless as to what the SLP tracks are. Until there is a much better handle of the upper-levels and the evolution of key features we essentially know what kind of look is going to yield farther west solutions and what kind of look is going to yield farther east solutions. But with this said I think we should actually have a very good idea of what will transpire probably with the 12z runs Friday or certainly with the 0z guidance. At this point not only the sampling of the energy will be there but how the energy is evolving as its digging into the Tennessee Valley will be known.

Part of the issue too is you're already seeing the jet streak round the base of the trough across Louisiana/Mississippi. If that could hold off until like Alabama/Georgia that would probably vastly increase the likelihood of shifting things (SLP, 850, 700) farther south and east. Guess this falls into the category of becoming too amped too early?

This GFS run would have it all. Areas hit hard as snow may end with rain and a line of thunderstorms. With H7 closing off so far west there would be a mean dry slot and probably would see a fine line of convection form right along the dry slot given the dynamics and steep lapse rates. Obviously too early for these sort of details but this solution would give it all.

The coastal flooding could be pretty wild with this.

MDT with moderate snow with light snow falling throughout PA. A bit encouraging but seeing some of the mesos look the way they do right now...we've seen this story before (focusing specifically on CT here).

hmmm NAM actually seems to have a great deal of subsidence over Connecticut. Makes sense subsidence could occur somewhere given the intensity of the banding which will be involved.

The current radar presentation doesn't seem bad at all and actually looks promising. There's a ton of juice available with this. Most model guidance really had this dissipating a bit as it moved across the mountains but that hasn't been the case. Some pretty impressive snow totals too out of WV/KY/TN. 0z too doesn't seem awful

A bit more robust than the 12z run!!

WOW HTS closed until 9:00 tomorrow morning. Guessing that's related to the snow (or at least factoring in). They're getting hit pretty hard. Visibility there down to <0.25 miles at times

We have seen many times in the past where models like the HRRR/RAP are first to pick up on convective-robbery so seeing those models with that sort of indication is certainly something that should be noted. At this point it's predominately nowcast and watching how the storm evolves over the next several hours (keeping in mind what the HRRR/RAP are advertising). One positive though is the degree of convection doesn't appear to be rather robust or substantive so it's quite possible the HRRR/RAP could be putting a bit too much emphasis on it's robbery of moisture. Favorable dynamics aloft too should provide good large-scale lift so hopefully that works to our favor.

18z GFS bufkit at BDL. Illustrates beautifully what kinda of ratios may be able to be maximized

Some pretty impressive signaling on the guidance since last night for Connecticut. There's still a few caveats but getting a bit hard to ignore some of the signals favoring heavy banding traversing much of the state.

Somewhere around BDL 9z Friday. It's going to be dumping and thumping

maybe even some thundersnow across far SE MA

That's going to be a huge dump of snow for many in a short amount of time. That's about as perfectly aligned fronto as you could ask to get a good chunk of MA/CT into heavy snow. Someone will definitely touch 2''/HR rates. Sounding in NE CT. Beautiful

Fronto for all. Rates easily 1.5''/hour in that. Suppose could even approach 2''/hour locally. Supported on some bufkit profiles with about 20 units of omega tapping into the DGZ.

Thanks...getting there. It's mostly fatigue that's the killer. I think where we sit though. Think the heaviest banding by end up actually a bit farther NW than some indications. It just sucks this thing is moving so quickly...would probably see a max zone upwards of around 10-12'' given the fluff factor. Ratios should be quite good (13-15:1)

Been out of the loop dealing with COVID the past week and just having enough energy to work but seeing the recent trends since overnight runs have given me a boost of energy!!! I was initially a bit meh yesterday afternoon for Connecticut (though didn't completely right anything off yet). Very excited with the 12z runs this morning. Seeing stuff like this makes me super happy and excited. Sorry to probably bring up old news but trying to get back into the swing of things again

ughhh I'm so sorry to hear this My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.

Hoping to get COVID tested tomorrow. Pretty sure I have it. I just scheduled my booster shot too but had to wait until January 11

Roads weren’t terrible going from Springfield to Chicopee. Side roads were a little iffy but main roads and highway were fine.

Quite the glazing (at least) of ice in Springfield. Roads look like crap. Hoping we go above freezing before having to head out