weatherwiz

It's all going to come down to how organized of a low pressure we get. If we get a well-organized, mature low we will see the axis of heavy rain not only shift west but encompass a larger area. If we see a weak low (with multiple lows) which is strung out...the axis of heavy rain is east and quite narrow and tied more into where the core of the LLJ traverses and strongest llvl forcing.

It's back baby!!!! EML time. It's happening. We're getting an EML and a high end severe weather event before the 20th. IT'S FREAKING HAPPENING

Talk needs to ramp up about damaging wind potential across (maybe RI) eastern MA

me too...maybe a sign for things to come during winter

TORs on the Cape

Note: SPC shifted general thunderstorm line EAST

I would think an argument could be made for a subtropical storm. Does look like it would be warm cored. I would think though any strengthening of such nature is probably more related to the pretty robust upper-level jet/divergence present over the region. That is really the only window I see for such low pressure organization/intensification. There is a bit of a barlocinic zone present but I don't think it's enough for a low to really take off. I'm guessing the area of convection just off the SC coast is the area of interest. Doesn't appear to be any real type of circulation present (or if so it's very weak).

The EML gets pushed to our north next week I also admittedly thought it was later in the week yesterday...I was thinking it was like Wednesday or Thursday and didn't realize it was a week out

The last one to the partly survives deeper into the night

Wow...looks like GFS hedging towards a NAM-like solution

This is the only thing that has me intrigued to yield a potential solution like this

I'm not so sure though it's a product of it being more west...I think it's more of how it evolves the low pressure. The 12z run has a much more mature surface low and is pretty much nearly perfect cyclogenesis. So I think the talk of models being "west vs east' is not necessarily correct...it's a matter of how the area of low pressure evolves. I am kinda torn on this. Looking at the ulvls the dynamics are quite impressive and support a great deal of ulvl divergence. However, given the stationary front it's more likely you'll see multiple areas of low pressure develop along it. Is it possible the NAM is going crazy with one specific shortwave or low? Very possible. Could it also be heavily influenced by convection? Possible. At this juncture I think I'd be less inclined to side with the NAM right now until there is additional (stronger) support. I would think one axis of very heavy rain tied right along where the best dynamics/forcing are...which is east of us. However, that ulvl jet structure is eye opening.

Should add even the GFS has it to some degree. both NAM/GFS bufkit for EWR Thursday night increase winds out of the NNE 10-15 mph with gusts to 20

NAM has an all out coastal storm rapidly materialize...some pretty impressive cyclogenesis. I mean I guess there is ulvl support for such a scenario to occur but it also looks like it is phasing energy with the ulvl to our west and s/w energy off the coast (associated with convection) and well maybe the NAM is a bit too overzealous in this instance. However, should a scenario like this evolve we could see two QPF maxes...one just NW of the low and the other tied into where the best dynamics/forcing occurs. 6z euro did seem to give the NAM some backing though...

Nasty squall line on 3km NAM. No trees left standing?

shift all that east by a good 30-40 miles

It is not Perhaps maybe through AWIPS though?

Oh...oh...OHHHHHHH

For Thurs - Sun period? I certainly agree with convective threats during that period and perhaps alot of the rain that occurs during this period if more convectively driven than synoptically...though they key word here being more...as there will be synoptic aid but I don't see it being enough to support heavy rains over a widespread area. The pattern moving into next week could certainly favor some MCS potential, especially northern New England.

I'm leaning more towards a few narrow areas of heavy rainfall but not a region-wide event. May see one or two axis of heavy rain. I guess the euro does support chance for strong storms Friday but pretty big differences between euro/gfs right now on how everything evolves.

The euro isn't as far west as it had been with the boundary either. Huge differences too with ulvl low to our West.

meh end of week not really turning into much. Boundary looks to stay pretty far off-shore and even weaken quite a bit. Dynamics are pretty meh. Don't see dews very high either...maybe mid-60's (especially closer to coast).

any EML's coming?

How’s the EML watch going?

Wish it was like 13F warmer out. Had to bring out the P coat