weatherwiz

Just look at that transport of higher theta-e air into the storm. Throwing back all that Atlantic moisture into air significantly colder...oh boy

The NAM is insane...about as perfect as you could be. closes off 700 just to our south with occlusion/500 closing off just to our southeast. All of CT would be hit hard in this I would think

Pretty good

Here is 12z GFS bufkit for BDL lol

I wouldn't totally sell it off...forecast soundings have some pretty deep cold air and down fairly close to the sfc too. you get strong enough lift into the DGZ and its going to rip

Are they still doing the 2/$6 mix-and-match deal?

off coffee and mountain dew kick start.

15'' or bust Friday, April 16, 2021

Not terrible on the GFS...just need to get it south a bit more ughhhh. but that's an interior smacking

they don't even get severe anymore either

May's a severe month

Depending on actual wind direction there is major upslope potential for parts of the Berks...someone there could get destroyed depending how this plays out.

This time of year the higher elevations are usually always favored, however, I think this setup there is alot favoring the potential for snow at all elevations. For one, the models are indicating a pretty cold low-level airmass and looks like we will be seeing surface winds with a predominately northerly component. Also, the time of day could be a huge positive as looks like the majority of the processes at play occurring overnight Thursday and even moving through Friday morning...the processes surrounding dynamic cooling, drawing down colder air from up north, and the quite cold low-level airmass...all should pay in favor to keep a favorable thermo profile even at the lowest elevations. The biggest overall concern may be more dry air into the DGZ or where the strongest lift occurs and where the H5 tracks/closes off. But if this all happens in a favorable location...elevation I don't think plays much of a role...but of course the greatest of accumulations would probably occur with higher elevation.

The ingredients are certainly there for that to happen...just not sure we end up seeing this trend that far south/southeast...but there is room to at least head in that direction. some big differences between the NAM/GFS and the handling of all that energy within the Inter-mountain West

Hopefully occlusion doesn't occur too quickly here. Man...if we can get this south just a bit more given the baroclinic zone there would be room for rapid cyclogeneis south of Long Island. Let's pop 60's the next few days so leaf out can explode and then let's get a region wide 10-20'' Thursday night/Friday.

Looks like core of the cold in like -6C to -7C at 850 and -1C to -2C at 925...well during the event anyways. 925 actually colder Friday evening. You also have nearly 310K of theta-e air (at 850) being drawn into the storm...that's going to be some serious moisture being thrown into the CCB.

The last time we had snow on April 15-16 we had a monster severe weather outbreak a month later...bring it on!!!!

Yeah baby!!!

That is some impressive dynamic cooling going on the NAM...even a bit moreso than what has been advertised. Looks slightly south too with everything

Is that closed off energy across the Inter-mountain West playing a big role in this? Seems like differences in how models are handling that feature are also impacting the evolution of our H5 energy.

Great post and points wow wtf

Certainly don't disagree. I am expecting, however, to probably need a booster shot every 6-12 months for a year or two but if it goes beyond that...it will be a little ridiculous. But I do foresee this being a yearly thing...similar to the flu shot so it will become a product of choosing whether to get it. I've never gotten a flu shot but I don't mind getting a booster for a year or two but after that...meh...but time will tell

it's more click bait titles...only issue is most people probably don't bother to read the article and just go off the title...then start spreading the misinformation. As @bch2014 stated above, vaccines were never going to be 100% effective. So much has been harped upon the 90-95% effectiveness in the trials but people need to realize when you put that into a larger population that number is going to drop quite a bit. But even if it dropped to like 65-70%...that isn't horrific, but a substantial amount of people are going to need to take it. Then there is the issue with how long the vaccine holds effectiveness after being vaccinated...which right now looks to be about 6-months. We are killing ourselves with rollout. We have now been vaccinating for 4-months. I get there was a ton of supply needed and the resources maybe weren't there to make that happen but those who were vaccinated in December...their "immunity" is going to be wearing off in a few months. So unless there are plans to start doing boosters in a month or so some people may be back to square one.

eh that's a BS headline. If you read into the article that was based on a study of like 400 people lol.

That is highway robbery by Boston!