weatherwiz

Tomorrow essentially going to evolve into a heavy stratoform rain with embedded thunder. Probably going to see some flash flooding. Severe threat is well SW of here

You need sfc-based instability for any type of tornado threat. You don't necessarily need sfc-based instability for wind damage potential but you need llvl instability otherwise lack of instability can be more indicative of an inversion which limits downward transport. If we can get MUCAPE values > 1000-1500 J/KG and get decent CAPE in the hail growth zone the light show would be pretty great and there would be a risk for hail.

We never truly warm sector. The dynamics are there to help with storm organization but we are really lacking instability...sufficient instability. It's really difficult for us to maintain nocturnal severe potential without the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates or steepening mid-level lapse rates aided by CAA in the mid-levels. Our temperatures tomorrow barely get to 80 and our dewpoints probably only into the lower 60's (if that) so we are not going to generate much instability and any instability will quickly wane after sunset. We are going to need to see a significant bump north to have any severe potential here...especially for any talk of TOR potential. BL seems way too stable for that potential here.

May see that Slight risk area trimmed south (maybe even see the southern portion of the risk area expanded south a bit) and I think we see the marginal area trimmed well south with the 1730z update

Going to depend on instability but right now it appears the best instability is just to our south. Even elevated instability up this way isn't super impressive. The dynamics are certainly quite impressive which will help keep convection going. If anything, eastern Mass/Cape might be the best spot to be.

Maybe a long-tracked tornado from Wisconsin later today can survive the journey into SNE

May see some nice elevated storms tomorrow night. Don't see much in the way of severe potential

Just pull back home and a flash of lightning with thunder

Wow Logan gusted told 61 mph

I should just take the drive down 75 and go into it but I like getting places before it hits

Huge cell blew up just south. Can hear the thunder ughhh

Nice bow over Winsted

About to get some sexy winds!!!

Some very weak rotation

I feel like I might get blown away

Wow pretty solid outflow winds here

Might even go into Suffield though I don't know any spots there but sure I could find one. There is this cute little ice cream place by the airport which is on Suffield side but may need to go deeper into Suffield

Headed to BDL in a few!!!

Wow. BDL dropped to 58 last hour

Your dewpoint is 70???

I'm not totally sure how far east the severe threat will hold. There is more than enough dynamical support, however, instability is lacking due to poor mid-level lapse rates and low dewpoints. The wind threat is thriving off of dry low-level air (large Td) and steep low-level lapse rates. However, models do show some theta-e pooling which may increase dewpoints a bit through the remainder of the afternoon and we continue to have good dynamical support with decent height falls. There are also indications this line could form a cold pool somewhat steepening the lapse rates and bumping instability a bit. Not sure how far south in CT this gets though...may be more closer to the Pike or just south

No derecho

What a profile. why can't we get

18z runs slowed timing by quite a bit

If anything the lower dews could help support some wind damage potential due to a stronger T/Td depression...especially if llvl lapse rates remain quite steep even after sunset