weatherwiz

Could see a tornado or two across upstate NY into northern New England

Correct...when looking at it from that aspect it makes sense but there are a ton of other factors to consider. Speaking from a theoretic/fundamental standpoint a warming Earth with a reduced equator-poleward temperature gradient would result in a decreased jet and would result in less conducive environments for cyclogenesis...which could be a big problem for us. Your point, however, would ring very true with tropical systems and holds merit to the notion that we will see more winter storms produce larger snow totals.

While perhaps true on a local level or in some areas of the world, this isn't entirely true on a overall large-scale.

Synoptics look quite favorable for cyclogenesis Pretty good jet structure Quite the thermal gradient

I don't think it's a dry fropa. Now if people are expecting 0.50-1.00'' of rain they're going to be let down. I think there will be some localized amounts around 0.50'' but for the most part probably a couple tenths of an inch to those who get anything. BOOM! Wants to achieve atmospheric equilibrium too quickly or something

The huge issue is when it comes to forecasting temperatures the NAM is flat out garbage. However, the NAM does a good job at sniffing out factors which could result in temperatures coming in below guidance...and come to think about it...has the NAM ever really given signals where temperatures could overshoot guidance lol. It looks like there might be a small pocket of cooler 925 temps (which happen to reside right over much of SNE)...but they do begin to warm significantly late in the afternoon. The ingredients are certainly there for a warm day tomorrow...and despite not getting into the true warm sector until very late, with enough sunshine the llvl airmass is plenty warm enough to give lower 70's...especially if can probably mix closer to 850. I foresee BD jumping like 3-5F between 4:00-5:00 PM tomorrow

For southern New England I would think the window for showers and thunderstorms is between 5-10 PM...as you go east across the region though the window will increase with time...out in eastern MA probably not until after midnight. Looks like enough instability that many probably see a decent light show.

I guess too a question is whether the inversion is warm front related or if there is enough of a southerly component for some marine induced inversion...the later would be huge b/c this would prevent stronger mixing. I would expect if the inversion is more warm front related that gets reduced due to sfc heating and the strong BL winds would help mix better?

This dates back to some of Friday's conversation but tomorrow's temperature forecast may be a bit tricky. NBM gets BDL into the mid-70's with the GFS at 74 and NAM at 72. Was even getting some mixed signals at EWR. I guess tomorrow is just going to be a product of how well we mix? With the warm front in the vicinity there certainly should be some sort of inversion aloft and this is advertised on forecast soundings...NAM is a bit stronger (promoting less mixing) while the GFS is weaker (promoting stronger mixing). It sucks b/c the NAM tends to underdo mixing while the GFS tends to overmix. Tomorrow may be a day where we get late-afternoon high's (5-6 PM) which I thought about Friday. One thing I find super interesting though is wind direction...soundings show SSW sfc winds and llvl winds at BDL...you would expect to orientate towards SE or SSE with a warm front approach...but perhaps b/c of the W-E configuration of the front we'll maintain S/SSW? This would be interesting b/c on at least a more SW component we tend to mix better. Anyways...I could see BDL struggle for 70-71 or they mix happy and get 77-78 lol

Yeah that kinda blows. Looks like we may have enough elevated instability into the overnight to keep some activity going, though severe threat will be diminished...but actually could be a decent light snow. There is even some indications for a boost in elevated CAPE across eastern sections overnight

A warm front is expected to move west-east across southern New England through the day Tuesday. While isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along/just behind the warm front, a better chance for thunderstorms exists Wednesday ahead of a pre-frontal trough/low-level wind shift. Combination of temperatures well into the 80's to even lower 90's away from the shoreline and dewpoints into the lower-to-near mid-60's will contribute to a modestly unstable atmosphere with mixed-layer CAPE on order of 1500 J/KG. While not terrible strong, winds aloft are enough to warrant the likelihood for convection to develop and become organized with 35-45 knot mid-level jet. There is a wildcard that could result in a more significant severe weather threat and that is a plume of elevated mixed-layer air. Forecast guidance indicates a piece of EML air may break from the central Plains and move into our region, however, the timing of this feature looks to be Wednesday morning/early afternoon before moving into the Atlantic. This would be timed well before the greatest ingredients arrive. Right now, the greatest chance for scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms looks to be NY/PA/western New England, however, depending on timing this could certainly extend farther east.

Wednesday is actually pretty close to a fairly decent severe weather potential but looks like that plume of steep lapse rates exits prior to best ingredients/arrival of lift.

I made a post or two about today a few days back...was never really sold on today. We have had some convective events...had a pretty nice thunderstorm last Sunday actually. I'm just waiting for some "bigger type" setups lol

Possible severe threat around the 31st if we can warm sector

Very cool! Thanks for sharing. Love reading these

GFS wants to sneak in some EML air towards the end of the month

It's certainly rather intriguing. One thing I would really like to know too is if we're (we're as in climo stations) hitting temperature thresholds of 80, 85, 90+ much easier now compared to historical averages (meaning with lower 925, 850, 800mb temperatures) or maybe we are just achieving stronger mixing. Actually what would be cool to know is are we averaging warmer 925/850/800 temperatures overtime...when assessing climate change all the focus is on surface temperature anomalies but is this a product of a lessened ozone layer resulting in greater shortwave radiation, a product of a warmer low-level airmass, both, or other factors. The low-level airmass aspect could be quite intriguing when taking into account the origins of these airmasses. If the Southwest/southern Plains region is experiencing earlier heat and big heat...well it's more likely we would see the same...or at least a higher probability for some type of big heat (whether it be brief or longer duration) very early on.

Next Friday night has potential to be rather chilly...maybe down into the 30's in areas that radiate well.

Is that what the sun looks like over Tolland over the summer?

I don't get why the NBM is so aggressive with temperatures for Monday across the Northeast.

If we are able to quickly get into sunshine Tuesday I certainly agree. Tuesday could be a late day high too (like a 20-21z high) as we are still increasing 850 temps (assuming we're achieving maximum mixing). This warm front looks like it could be pretty active with an extensive high cloud shield...but also have to keep in mind models often time overdo this aspect, especially across our region.

Next week is going to be pretty rollercoaster. Monday looks to be quite cool...especially compared to what we've been dealing with this week and with what looks to transpire Sunday. Tuesday is a bit of a wild card, though I suspect there could be a large west-to-east temperature gradient across the region as that warm front moves through. May even see some convection with the warm front. Wednesday looks like it could be pretty toasty...but lots of factors to consider here; timing of cold front, cloud cover, convective potential...the end of the week...could be quite cool at least across northern New England depending on how far the boundary sags. Won't be fun across parts of the Southeast with wildfire potential this week.

THANK YOU COD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This will make the CAPE ALERT thing I created even better.

CT's positivity rate in last 24-hours...0.93% (206/22,265)!!! Hospitalizations down to 141

We get the MCS with the northwest flow aloft but morso the mid-levels than the low-levels. Think about it...when we get those ridge rolling MCS' we're typically characterized by a very warm/moist low-level airmass (which we typically need a southerly flow or a southerly component to the flow) and a west-to-northwest flow aloft...this usually helps with mid-level height falls, colder mid-level temperatures, and likely a stronger flow since the northwest flow is likely on the eastward flank of a trough and in between a ridge to the west. And agreed...those huge heat domes hardly ever end with big severe.