weatherwiz

A MURDER HORNET JUST FLEW IN MY CAR...I’m going to die

The HRRR is on the fast train regarding timing.

I a little surprised by the enhanced really...not sure I see wind damage being that widespread...kinda hard to get really good widespread wind damage with rather steep llvl lapse rates

Gotcha. Well if we can get dews around 65 that will at least help boost instability given lapse rates won't be too great.

Sort of advecting in from the OV? That might be what I was overlooking...source region

No EML. Lapse rates will be ehhh. yeah those dews aren't happening lol

The HRRR would be borderline localized tornado outbreak but yeah that looks strange to me as well. It does develop some pretty high CAPE with not much of a cap so perhaps that's the reason? But I just don't see enough support (trigger) for that scenario. The HRRR also seems to have a bias with WF supercells

I wonder if the instability is overdone. Soundings from the 3km NAM show pretty steep mid-level lapse rates which may be overdone.

SW VT/extreme NW MA could be a really good spot for something but I think the best ingredients are going to go to waste...don't see much of a trigger to generate convection during the afternoon...or at least enough support for deep enough convection to utilize the dynamics aloft. Going to be ugly on the cold side of the front...rain and 50's...yuck

unless it's an LP supercell

well my friend and I officially cancelled our trip to OK the end of the month...though we knew this a while back. Guess I'll just have to chase tornadoes around CT.

Do you really think we see dewpoints in the 63-65F range? There is model support for it but I am struggling to find any evidence that happens. I can see 61-62 happening. Also, I see some on social media going sounding happy and this is something I've noticed and not sure if there is some type of issue with generating soundings but some of the soundings (SHARPpy) people are tossing around have rather high lapse rates and dewpoints and thus throwing out some big CAPE values.

Should be enough instability left to keep potential for some damaging wind gusts.

Definitely agreed the warm front could be a pretty decent focal point...especially if any convection can form along it. There definitely seems to be at least enough support to keep a line of t'storms moving into the region (even after sunset) but I think the overall greatest potential for severe wx is going to be just west of us...I think timing kinda hurts us. That strong piece of vort tracking into NNE happens just a bit too late. It would seem like the greatest chance for any severe associated with the warm front would be mid-to-late afternoon, however, there may not be much overall support for developing convection then. Strongest height falls seem to arrive shortly after the best ingredients would be in place. But we should certainly see some scattered wind damage tomorrow!!!

I am a bit shocked it's so far east. I think the greatest overall potential is to our northwest. What kinda sucks for us is timing but there seems to be enough instability left to keep the threat for damaging winds through the I-84 corridor.

Some of these parameters are really nice looking but I'm not a huge fan of the lack of stronger ulvl support...at least enough to make things super interesting.

Been meaning to start this thread since Monday but I was all threaded out. Anyways, severe weather season is starting to get very active around here as we have another threat right around the corner...and this one comes with our first early taste of late spring or early summer as a warm front tickles us and we taste some humidity. Obviously, this early in the season the biggest question is northward warm front progression. It does appear the warm front will at least push into central New England. South of the warm front dewpoints should get into the lower 60's. While not great, mid-level lapse rates will be around 6.5 C/KM. With surface temperatures perhaps pushing into the 70's we should generate enough instability, when combined with ample wind shear to produce the development of t'storms; including the risk for some strong-to-severe t'storms. As usual with this type of setup and time of year, the greatest risk will be away from the marine influence. When considering timing of the fropa or pre-frontal trough the greatest potential will likely be eastern PA, southeast NY, southern VT, and western MA/CT. Strong winds aloft, inverted-V sounding signatures, and linear storm mode indicate main severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. However, in the vicinity of the warm front there will be enough backing of the llvl winds to yield the risk of rotation and an enhanced risk for hail or a brief tornado.

I forgot to start a thread for Friday but I'll do it later. Looks like there could be some damaging wind gusts but greatest threat may be just west of here.

I was actually wrong about yesterday too...I had thought any frozen would have been more grauple as opposed to hail given the super low freezing levels. Thought I read stuff years ago which mentioned grauple is more likely when WBZ heights get below a certain level. But perhaps this was off-set by the few hundred J of hail CAPE

Well onto Friday now. Thread to come in the morning!!!

This was now

Holy shit this is awesome!!!!! Pea to dimes!!!!!! OMg!!!! Hahaha

MORE PEA HAIL!!!!!! OMG

mostly pea but there were some almost dime sized

Hail round 2 hahahaha