weatherwiz

Yup! I feel a bit better now Was looking at NAM when I thought I was looking at the HRRR I always love when the HRRR gets into range (even if it's at the 48-hour mark) b/c it can really be useful when spotting and assessing for trends.

FWIW as we're getting inside the 48-hour window but the 18z HRRR seems to be siding with a NAM-type ordeal EDIT: Scratch this...I had the NAM up not the HRRR

One of the first things I like to see when looking long-term/seasonal in the winter for us is whether the pattern looks wet or dry. If it looks wet...I don't care what temperature anomalies look like or what the averaged smoothed out pattern looks like. At our latitude, if we are above-average precip for the winter there's a good bet we're getting at least one great snow event.

This is precisely why this winter I am going to try hard and not get so invested in anything that is beyond 4 days out. The past few winters have been a dangling carrot in front of the horse. The pattern we just become established in is just too chaotic.

This system is going to be up in the air until probably the last minute. The ceiling for overperforming (somewhere) is pretty high. Having the baroclinic zone so far north (which all models are in general agreement on) is a nice to see. I don't know what the odds are for this to develop on the earlier side but this does have potential to get its act together in enough time to get a band of moderate snow to traverse CT, RI, and eastern MA. Going to be lots of moisture thrown into this system with favorable thermal profiles and great dynamics to work with. So the frame work is there.

Agreed

Nice blizzard for parts of the north-central Plains into the upper-Midwest end of the week into the weekend. Road trip???

There should be some solid ulvl divergence across much of the region which should aid in the expansion of the precipitation shield. Models do want to pop an 850 low is just a matter of how early that happens. But given the strong llvl jet dynamics there will be plenty of moisture being fed into the system. Decent lift into the DGZ (on the NAM using BDR) probably across at least southern areas. Even despite the perhaps marginal sfc temps it's quite cold aloft and the depth of the above-freezing layer is quite thin. Obviously this changes with north/south track but given the NAM a strip of 3-5'' is quite possible along southern sections.

The number of fall events the past 3-4 years have been the most intriguing. Perhaps with great assistance of dual-pol radar activity but the number of October/November tornadoes the past several years from NY/PA into our region has been pretty remarkable. Thankfully (and this is a trend nationally) they're all weak sauce

Just thinking about last night... I wonder if these pea-hail reports last night was actually grauple.

Monday looks quite decent for some severe weather potential. Low-topped squall line type stuff but that is alot of wind aloft and a nice surge of theta-e air with dewpoints climbing into the 50's potentially. There will actually be three mechanisms for wind damage potential here; 1) Presence of steep low-level lapse rates during the day 2) With a line of low topped convection ahead of the front 3) Very steep low-level lapse rates in association with CAA behind the front. But in the warm sector...those are some pretty impressive mid/upper level dynamics and of course very strong low-level jet. If we get dews into the 50's and can muster up enough low-level CAPE this will be a decent little event. It's like a lower-grade 12/1/06

dang it...wonder if I had hail. I heard pings but could have been pings within the Bruins game

AAM/mountain torgues are on my goal list of studying and learning more about over the coming months. I know some of their opinion of them and how much weight they truly hold but I believe understanding their current states and how they've behaved over the previous several weeks to few months can provide tremendous value. Forecasts of these states will only provide as much value as what forecast models are projecting but...when it comes to a changing pattern and a changing state (not just about a particular region but maybe a good part of a hemisphere)...if a change is say going to occur over the U.S. the change has to occur somewhere else first...so identifying where a change is set to occur and going from there is incredibly valuable. I also want to do more studying/assessment of the global pattern as a whole b/c after all everything is connected. Maybe a slight change in the Atlantic results in changes over Europe several days later which results in changes across Asia several days after that and then across the Pacific several days after that and then across the U.S. several days after that (so like a month after the initial change in the Atlantic). cold

I think in order for us to get big changes in the long-term we need to see significant changes across the western Pacific and across Asia. As long as we continue to be in a positive East Asian Mountain torque regime we continue to see wave breaking just off the continent and when combined with enhanced convection/-OLR anomalies across the west-central Pacific this is driving a huge ridge across the central Pacific to west of Alaska with troughing across Alaska.

Nice to see fairly strong high pressure to the north as well ahead of the system. Could be a big game changer (in a positive way) for many. Anyways, trying not to get too hyped up about these D5-6+ threats this winter. The track record with these systems the past few winters have been pretty horrific. The patterns we have been in have just been pure hell from a modeling standpoint. But could be the last chance for quite a while...pretty strong signals for Pacific air to flood much of the country. However, given the degree of cold air that sticks around in Canada there will be quite a battle ground so northern New England could get slammed. I am getting a feeling this could be like a 70-71 type winter (I think that's the winter places like PWM and BTV got destroyed?)

eh I love tracking both. I do love tracking potential snowstorms and snow but it's just not the same as it used to be...mostly b/c I don't get to enjoy it like I used to and don't have the energy to stay up at night and look at models. At least for me...when there is a potential event hinging on phasing I am extremely intrigued. When phasing is a huge player, I try not to get obsessed with model run-to-model run or get caught up in details. All I care about is that models continue the theme of a potential phase and that window for phasing opportunity is there. Once inside of 48-72 hours I'll start to really hope to see a consistent theme of phasing. But in the event of Sunday/Monday there is alot to really like (in terms of storm potential): 1. Changes within the state of the PNA/NAO (good for East Coast cyclogenesis) 2. Favorable jet structure and dynamics 3. Abundance of moisture influx 4. Cold air available Now it's just piecing things together. Maybe it doesn't totally work given the time of year but I'll take these key pieces all winter long and go from there.

yeah not totally closed. just a bit weird looking. favoring the convection possibly...but way too far out to probably focus on that too much. For this time range there's lots of favorable pieces and movement which is good to see.

I'm just looking at the 18z GFS now but per that solution you almost wonder if it's not totally accurate with it's surface depiction. Here is 6z Monday. H5 is closed off over PA. But then look at the SLP. I would expect a sfc low more southwest and probably a bit more consolidated and stronger based off this look along with the jet structure. One thing to note though is it is generating a ton of convection which if accurate would impact development.

If the ridge axis in the West was maybe a couple hundred miles farther west...or maybe not even this would probably be one heck of a storm

Several waterspouts likely a few hundred miles SE of the Cape

If we can get H5 to close off around or just south of Long Island this will be a pretty solid event for a good part of the region (obviously with time of year typical caveats will apply towards the coast). Phasing of the two s/w's will be key too but even if we don't see phasing...that nrn stream is significant enough to where it may be able to compensate (i.e. tracking over or just south of Long Island).

Thundersnow possible? Wouldn't be surprised to see some hefty snow squalls across the whole region Friday

That was a pretty remarkable storm. Still remember that like it was yesterday. Was pretty uneventful in West Hartford, but I was assisting the Ham Radio team at the time and holy crap...the period from like 10 PM - 6 AM flew by. The damage coming in from around ORH was non-stop. I think what goes unnoticed with that event too is they had a pretty damaging wind event across parts of RI into SE MA. Temps I think shot up into the 50's to around 60.

Can see it already...BTV pulls off 80-90'' this winter and BDL barely sniffs 30-35''. That's a crushing NNE look. Maybe with the lakes still warm we can get some re-developing clippers in NYE 2009 (was it 2009?) fashion.

Yup...great point. There isn't just a single PV...there's a tropospheric PV and a stratospheric PV and they aren't always coupled. Just b/c maybe the SPV isn't favorable doesn't mean we can't see cold/snowy patterns and just b/c the TPV isn't favorable doesn't mean we can't either. IMO anyways, the PV will hold much more weight and be a bigger influence when there is a greater coupling between the two.