weatherwiz

RAP on mesoanalysis yielding 50-75 J of 3km CAPE early afternoon...50 might be a bit low to produce anything but we get towards 75 and higher and that may be enough to make for some interesting cells.

Long Island into the southern 4 counties of CT...though I would think Litchfield and Hartford should be included too.

I'm thinking we see an MCD...Tornado Watch Possible to be issued within the next 90-minutes.

low topped for sure...hell there may not even be much lightning. It won't take much sun poking through to vastly build 3km CAPE...even if OVC is thin enough...strong sun angle is plenty to boost things.

Really should watch south of Long Island the next few hours. Some definite thinning/breaks of clouds occurring. Also noting some decent convection to pop up to the south and east of the circulation. I think it's becoming apparent the slug of heaviest rain moves off to the west...however, we may be seeing increasing potential for t'storms/TOR potential

Holding onto hope this look stays. It's been consistent for several days now. I'm torn between Monday and Tuesday though...I think the overall best s/w and upper-level support is Tuesday but Monday's looks is very good...perhaps we're still close enough to the main s/w that we can cash in.

A bit of an increase in convection northwest of Atlantic City

Looks like forward speed continues to slowly increase. Heaviest rain here could legit be done by like 7-8 PM (in CT).

Not sure if it's model error but there is like a small pocket of pretty steep lapse rates that tries to get overhead. I see at least a few wet microbursts tomorrow along with potential for a tornado or two.

Tropical Storm Winds extending farther west of the center per latest update Tropical Storm Fay Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 725 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY... Surface observations and radar data indicate that tropical-storm- force winds now extend farther to the west of the center of Fay. This necessitates an extension of the Tropical Storm Warning southward from Cape May, New Jersey, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, including the southern Delaware Bay. A special advisory will be issued in lieu of the 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC) intermediate advisory to update the forecast and warnings for Fay. $$ Forecaster Brennan

Hudson Valley track...a precursor to winter?

Severe outbreak up north for @OceanStWx Tuesday? Could see severe here too Monday!!! WE'RE GETTING ACTIVE BABY!!!!!

yup...late overnight and tomorrow could be interesting...guidance not showing much developing, however, should something pop many favorable ingredients. Tomorrow thinks could start popping by 10-11 AM.

Is there another source to look at Daily Climate Reports? This whole crap with some NWS products not working is beyond ridiculous now...especially SPC outlooks...not populating for like 45 minutes past time

Bingo

Agreed...strongest winds for sure across NJ and southern Long Island...and even there not a huge deal...maybe gusts 40-50 mph. If there is strong enough convection maybe someone gusts to like 60. Yeah there certainly was room for this to be a bit stronger but...actually really wasn't far off from that occurring I don't think. I agree, this is pretty impressive for this time of year. I don't get the crapping on this system either...but if someone isn't seeing crazy weather in their backyard then a system is garbage...I mean which is fine...too each their own but don't go around calling something crappy or garbage just b/c you're not seeing anything. It's like everyone has the mentality of significant damage or nothing.

Plus water temperatures up the entire coast would be much warmer...obviously only speculation but if this scenario was another month or two from now we could possibly be looking at a hurricane.

I guess we'll have to see whether we can generate any breaks in the clouds. Really wouldn't take much to boost llvl CAPE given how moist it is.

If Long island Sound water temperatures were much warmer I would say we probably would see a few brief tornadoes today. If anything though, I think the greatest potential for a brief tornado would actually be across inland CT...away from the shoreline...only b/c the colder waters I think will act to sort of stabilize things around the boundary layer and there will be a bit more llvl instability inland. This typically goes against what you would expect for TOR potential with a TC but the time of year is a little screwy .

Was a bit surprised to see TOR probs increased to 5% later today. Not seeing much model support for enough 3km CAPE...I'm not totally sure what numbers you would want to look for in this situation but I would wager you would like to see at least 75-100+ J of 3km CAPE. There actually could be potential for a brief tornado late tomorrow morning - late afternoon should we get anything to develop...CAMS though sort of keep convection just west of here.

sweet thanks. I wonder if it's worth subscribing to weather.us rather than weathermodels

I've seen like 70-73

are there any euro products for lapse rates?

not without lube first

Saturday looks looks rather intriguing to me...in fact, there are some signals we could see some serious dewpoint pooling. Could see dews maybe 75-77.