weatherwiz

18z NAM coming in toasty. Guess I should drop the idea of thinking we could see a colder solution. This is going to blow here. Time to start thinking about May.

This is quite challenging. I'm not totally convinced yet we just full on torch down this way. It's certainly a concern but the GFS has been very persistent in wanting to pop that secondary and ever so slightly jogging southeast with everything. Meanwhile the NAM/Euro definitely want to go west. Looks like all the models are actually handling the main vorticity pretty consistently...looks like the bigger differences overall are with that shortwave digging through the Ohio Valley.

We're only a few weeks away from the May 1st thread!!!!

Can't disagree with that. I guess my argument is that is the degree of lift and moisture ahead of them. But in this instance....precip may also be more banded in nature which is fairly common with very strong systems. And if this turns out to be the case...good luck to all forecasts

Well I think by 0z runs tomorrow night we'll have a much better idea. Not sure what this means for us but one thing I noticed with models is they have been trending wetter (as in more QPF) and stronger with this system as it dives into the Missouri and Tennessee Valley. They may get absolutely smoked in parts of KY/TN into the Foothills.

Wish I remembered that event

This is going to be a very fun storm to watch evolve. Some will get screwed and some will get nailed. This is where you just appreciate meteorology at its finest

The high retreating would mean a wind flow that has less of a northerly or a northeasterly component which can be a source for advecting drier air down from the north. But I see your point regarding the impressiveness of the WAA and the one event which sticks out to me is Valentine's Day 2007...an event I'm sure Tip has a sorrow love story about. Sure the retreating high allows for stronger WAA (especially in the llvls) but this is where secondary development is important and there are the signals secondary development may happen in time to reinforce the colder air in the llvls. And that's what I'm looking at...and combining with the dynamics. The moisture inflow with this is going to be ridiculous but what really transpires will come down to some mesoscale aspects and that's what leads into your mentions of waiting until later in the weekend to fine tune.

Your thoughts and thinking are certainly incredibly reasonable here which is always par of the course with you. It's always best to go conservative and you can always adjust towards a more aggressive scenario. I believe if the high was staying pit we would be getting dry air entrainment and that would significantly hurt things. This setup...this is extremely unique. There are certainly several red flags towards higher-end snow, but there are also numerous signals for some significant snow. As Ray stated, this will likely come down to mesoscale time but given the degree of dynamics at play and the airmass ahead of the storm..,I think the ceiling is high. But that comes with caution b/c there will likely be an extreme gradient between coastal/inland.

You're absolutely right here. Totally agree with this. I certainly wouldn't communicate this publicly. Just something to throw out for discussion here.

Well that's the thing...I think there is. I know some aren't in favor of looking into specifics this far out but at least on the GFS there are several bufkit soundings showing 50-60+ units of omega into the DGZ. If that were to verify we'd be talking 3-5'' per hour snowfall rates. There are certainly some flags at stake but there are also some pretty impressive signals indicating such potential. I actually think the high sliding and hauling ass to the east may actually help here b/c given the initial airmass we would be super dry aloft...so it hauling reduces the potential for dry air to contend with.

In the vicinity of where the coastal front sets up. While I am a bit skeptical on this I think there is room to get some rather impressive ratios where lift can be maximized and that will go along way. There's also going to be a tremendous amount of moisture thrown into the initial cold airmass.

I could see a rather substantial coastal front with this and a subsequent band of extremely heavy snow. Something maybe upwards of 12-18''. Missed your first call so not sure what your thoughts on on this.

You don't think the majority of our QPF would come as snow? I'm still a bit torn on how much we torch inland but looks like much of the QPF is snow then we change over...and by that point we may already be beginning to dry slot? I know it's too far out too really dig into bufkit but this was encouraging to see

I could see a situation where there is rather large temperature gradient between the immediate coastline and just inland. The GFS anyways is trying really hard to get that secondary going. Just based off the 18z run I'm inclined to think it's boundary layer warmth is a bit overdone inland. The issue though is those dynamics coming off the ocean are pretty strong. Even if we were to see warmth at the sfc, I would think it's relatively shallow and by the time we see that occur...much of the damage (QPF) has already fallen. The amount of moisture which is going to be thrown into the cold air mass initially is going to be insane with those llvl dynamics.

I'm still on the train (and I guess speaking specifically about CT here) that we probably dry slot before any type of changeover occurs...or the amount of precip which falls during the change over process is very little. The thump with this is going to be very impressive here. The problem (which will limit accumulation potential) is snow ratios are likely going to be pretty junky. Although I'm not totally 100% sold on this. There's going to be some phenomenal lift with this. It may be too early for these details but noting that the 18z GFS bufkit for BDL actually pushes ratios upwards of 15:1. This is likely dependent on the degree of lift into the DGZ. If the snow is more wet in nature (which this has to be a consideration) then power outages could become a problem b/c I still think we would be seeing several-plus inches of snow. One other huge key with this system, especially when you're talking about interior New England is this system is likely going to occlude rather quickly and moisture inflow will essentially be choked off. This system could fall apart rapidly upon approach.

There is a great deal on the line with this storm. While the focus is on snow vs. no snow this storm (regardless of snow or not) could be very impactful. You have high wind potential so there will be risk for power outages and given the degree of cold behind the storm (for at least a few days anyway) that could be bad news for some then you have the risk for what could be rather devastating coastal flooding if those cards play out.

Your point was a great point and is something that provided a good deal of value to discussion. People interpret how they want

May end up even seeing a tropopause fold with this.

I had it a few weeks back. Started feeling sick late Wednesday afternoon on the 29th (I had just scheduled my booster the day before or earlier that morning too). My nose started running like nothing I've ever had. Mucus would just randomly gush out of my nose with no warning. My friend was able to schedule me for a test that Friday and it came back positive. Thankfully the symptoms were fairly mild (comparable to that after the second shot). Only symptoms that were worse were fatigue and body aches. I started to feel much better by Saturday afternoon and symptoms were gone by like Tuesday of last week. However, around last Tuesday I developed this cough that won't go away. The fatigue is still there too...randomly get super tired during the middle of the day.

10:1 maps were garbage last storm b/c ratios were obviously going to be much higher and 10:1 maps are going to be garbage this storm b/c ratios probably going to be less than 10:1 (except maybe the farther north you go). Too worry to really worry about ratios but something to start considering soon.

Certainly a plausible scenario at this stage.

Actually taking the GFS verbatim for the concerns of snow going over to rain...in the GFS scenario we may actually dry slot before any transition to rain can happen lol. With H7 tracking that far west and as developed as it is there would certainly be a mean dry slot.

I can agree that ensembles may be rather useless in this sense. Maybe this sort of logic can be applied to every storm but in the sense of this event ensemble means and individuals and their outputs really aren't going to tell us something we can't figure out on our own. Each solution/output is essentially tied into the evolution of the upper-levels. You can have 48/48 (whatever the number is) ensembles all show a track through the Hudson Valley...now something like that may yield extremely high confidence in such a scenario unfolding but that probably wouldn't be the case here. That is essentially tied into how the model is evolving the upper-levels. The next set of ensembles could go in the entirely opposite direction if the evolution is handled differently. All in all IMO ensembles really aren't going to tell us something we can't figure out by applying science/meteorology

The NAO is trending negative as this is unfolding which is I believe what you typically want to see...but this goes to show there is much more to snow/cold than just the NAO. It actually even looks like we have a pseudo 50/50 low which usually is a good thing as well (but might actually also be enhancing the ridging). The big problem is the system becomes so amped and does so too early and we develop strong upstream ridging. With the core of the ridging across northern New England this acts as a block in a sense and the storm goes west