weatherwiz

Wednesday really looks intriguing...actually flash flooding could be a concern

Agreed. I mean if anything, torrential rains and gusty winds could certainly cause a bit of a setback with power restorations and clean-up. Last I heard there are still many people without running water and access to clean water.

Thankfully shear looks a bit unfavorable in the Gulf this week but that tropical wave which emerges into the Gulf is sure going to try I bet

warm front nearby too so should be some nice turning. just need to destabilize

oh man...I totally, totally forgot about their website. Wow...this has come along way since they started it. This looks incredible. I love too how they break tornadoes down into "Pre-doppler" and "Doppler" era...that's exactly what I did too many years ago for a lightning round presentation at one of the conferences and what I did in a project I ended up using as senior research. I was always hoping to take that project off the ground but I never really did...I totally suck with math/statistics and I just never trusted my methodology.

I think the majority of that is Sunday into early Monday as the front moves through. The front may hold up long enough to keep the risk for showers/thunder for eastern sections through the first half of Monday though. Although maybe some cold pool showers Monday PM?

The WNW motion seems to make it extremely unlikely. If we do start to see a turn with a more northerly motion by the end of the weekend (which seems likely) then the chances are 0%. Right now the chances are probably like less than 1%. Although if Larry does undergo RI and gets into category 3 or 4 status could this favor a more westerly track?

Bermuda could be in big trouble

The probability is super, super low but certainly not 0% so does bear to be peaked at. I think having such higher latitude and the fact that it will be gaining latitude over the next several days vastly increases any odds of it impacting the coast (outside of swells of course). If it stayed on more of a due west course towards Cuba and SE US. well...could have been interesting

These past few months have been pretty crazy here in the Northeast. So much to be impressed about but I'm not sure if nothing impresses me more than the fact that NJ has had 11-tornadoes this year including an EF-2 and an EF-3. I really miss tornadohistoryproject.com because it was so easy to manipulate tornado data but I would say this has to be like top 2 year for them...maybe 1989 would be #1?

Wednesday something to watch. No outbreak or high-end event...but some localized severe weather possible.

If I want beauty I'll look at a post card or a Picasso. If people want colors...buy a giant bag of skittles.

Had to put the heat on for a bit in the car this AM...then had to switch to A/C when the sun angle started increasing. I HATE THIS TIME OF YEAR. Oh...I also saw leaves changing and some leaves down (not from wind...like leaves that had changed color and moved onto the afterlife). AHHHHHHH

some crazy bombogenesis nor'easter in November will find a way to transport enough cold air into northern FL that you see rain end as snow while we're 60's with rain

ughh that sounds awesome. Those are the best part of nighttime storms. This was just purely epic. I don't know if this was posted at all but I was looking this morning and the remnant circulation of Ida actually strengthened as it moved across our region (which shouldn't come as a shock given that ulvl jet streak) but NHC had it up to 40 mph. I totally agree with you too...something along the lines of a "Tropical Storm" watch/warning should have been used. I mean who cares if it doesn't fit the scientific definition of it...I mean in terms of the science side I get in terms of public impact this was right up there with what you would expect from a TS. Same reasons why with severe they have your regular old severe thunderstorm/tornado watches and PDS watches...something higher scale to really communicate the more extreme risk. Maybe there needs to be consideration for additional types of flood watches...extreme flood watch, significant flood watch...idk something. Kinda dumb that a flash flood watch for 2-3'' in a thunderstorm tries to communicate the same as a 4-7'' rain event in the span of a few hours.

There's also still EML hope!!!

my legs get cold

Agreed...went on my Pokewalk a few hours ago and it was chilly...finally warmed up from walking but I miss walking when it was 90 and humid

make that 9 then

So far by my count 8-confirmed tornadoes Massachusetts - 1: EF0 NJ - 3: EF0, EF1, EF3 PA - 4: EF1, EF2, 2 NR yet MD - 2: EF0, EF2 EF0's: 3 EF1's: 2 EF2's: 2 EF3's: 1 Not Rated yet: 2

Decisions are also tied into the type of weather alert. This is what I was getting at too yesterday when this event needed something stronger than just a Flash Flood Watch. Yes, all meteorologists who are responsible for communicating to the public did an incredible job highlighting the risks, but when you have decision makers and there is movement to institute certain restrictions they'll go "well it's just a flash flood watch". I mean we see flash flood watches on days when convection is forecast and there is hardly any shear so thunderstorms just dump on a location.

Tracking Larry is going to be a bit uneasy. Should that initial trough not capture it and pull it out to sea...it would have a path towards the EC

EWR recorded 8.41'' of rain yesterday. That's freaking insane. Their September average is 3.82''

Precisely. I mentioned that on Twitter a few months back and got some kickback. Some farmers apparently think b/c they have had dry soil for a few years we're in extreme drought. Wasn't necessarily referencing anyone here (but yes he would fit in this boat) moreso social media...aka twitter