weatherwiz

http://i.imgur.com/cOkYI.gif

It is...which is a big head scratcher for me. Well actually (and this might be a dumb question) is the NAMNST and 3km the same thing? It shows a decent line today but nothing else does. That model always seems to poo-poo convective events (and not even just here) but today it looks solid.

Absolutely agreed and great point regarding the cool overnights...they're tied into the low dews/strong radiational cooling. We have certainly seen some cooler airmasses (like a few weekends back) but for the most part these airmasses are very typical for this time of year (minus the dews). But this is a great post...you should copy/paste into the main thread

Certainly no complaints with heating today. I mean when you look at the setup this is a pretty solid setup to produce numerous severe weather reports, however, the lapse rates and warmth of the mid-levels are so terrible they are pretty much offsetting everything else that favors a higher-end (in terms of severe weather reports) type event.

Even when you know disappointment is coming...when the disappointment gets there it's still crap and it's still maddening. But when you walk through crap...keep walking.

Greatest potential is certainly across southeast PA where the SPC has upgraded to Enhanced. There is a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates there which will yield higher CAPE. Here though...meh. Here is sounding from OKX...lots of warm layers in there. I think we'll see some heavy downpours and thunder move through but going to be tough to get any severe and much lightning production.

Was there no balloon launch out of ALB or is the data just not uploaded yet. This stupid helium shortage is ridiculous. HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN?

May see a few rounds today. Don't think we'll see anything overly impressive. Storms really going to struggle to strengthen

I really am pissed and disappointed. I feel like I live on garbage island where all you have to look forward to is garbage.

This really isn't going to be anything to write home about but hopefully some thunder/lightning. Best part of this setup really is the very strong bulk shear. But the awful lapse rates and warm mid-levels really put a dent on potential. THIS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD

Dewpoints weren't really supposed to start increasing until overnight or moreso towards pre-dawn.

Wow 18z HRRR is really early tomorrow...in fact, so early we probably don't achieve full instability potential

But that may be driven by the very strong shear. Like a decade ago or whatever they did some updating to the algorithm to that product and it tends to go wild when shear is high

SPC SREF beefing up TOR potential tomorrow

It's the primary reason we don't do severe well here. Folks blame alot on the marine influence but IMO that is not the biggest reason. It certainly doesn't help, but when you have the proper ingredients/setup the marine influence is nada. Obviously early in the season it's going to be a big factor. IMO, these are the top reasons why we don't do well with severe here: 1) Poor mid-level lapse rates: There is a difference between low-level or surfaced-based CAPE and mid-level or mixed-layer CAPE. You can have robust surface CAPE but weak mixed-layer CAPE. What happens here is the strong surfaced-based CAPE will accelerate your parcels to the LCL and LFC and boom that's when you see rapid storm development...but at a certain point in the storm development the strengthening stops. With weak mid-level lapse rates the temperature difference between the parcels and environment lessens which results in less buoyancy and slower acceleration. When you have steep mid-level lapse rates (driven by EML or cold mid-level temperatures) the temperature difference remains great and parcels can continue to accelerate rapidly. 2) Weaker forcing: It is possible the curvature of the Earth plays a role in this, but often times as shortwave troughs advance into southeastern Canada we'll see the strongest shortwave forcing remain north of the International border and subsequently the stronger dynamics will also remain north. In these scenarios as the cold front drives east along with the thunderstorms, the thunderstorms become removed and displaced from this stronger forcing/dynamics. This becomes critical because this stronger forcing can aid significantly in the acceleration of parcels through the troposphere so convection can remain deep. We've seen setups before with severe occurring down to the coast and even some significant severe. If the marine influence was as strong as some say, we probably wouldn't see that happen. Don't get me wrong, marine air does play an influence but it holds much weight than what some think. The biggest reasons why severe chances weaken as you move south and east are really more tied into my #2 above. The situations where we do have favorable ingredients and the stronger forcing is south of the border...we see severe persist closer to the coast.

ehhh it's a bit more complex than that. There are aspects to this pattern which actually would favor some more exciting severe chances but there's persistent features which are mitigating that potential. For example, tomorrow. That's an unseasonably strong mid-level wind field overspreading the region with the flow WSW. While the cold front is not terribly strong shortwave forcing actually is pretty solid along with height falls. But because mid-level lapse rates and mid-level temperatures are so warm this will significantly reduce upward parcel acceleration which will ultimately result in weaker updrafts. Surface CAPE will be high which will assist in convection rapidly forming once the ConvT is reached but once parcels rise above a certain level the acceleration upwards will be slowed significantly which will hinder deep convection from being established. This will be shown very well with the degree of lightning density tomorrow.

That is certainly true but with that you run the risk of the thunderstorms outracing the better shortwave forcing. But looks like we'll see another two line scenario with one line impacting PA/NJ/NYC and the second line NYS through southern VT, NH, and parts of MA. If we had steeper mid-level lapse rates (even ~6.5 C/KM) and mid-level temps weren't as warm I think we would be dealing with a much higher potential.

It's a bit faster with the timing but this may be due to the fact that convection forms ahead of the pre-frontal trough as opposed to the cold front which is typically the case anyways. We actually have a quite a bit going for us, but because the mid-level lapse rates are so weak and mid-levels relatively warm this really cuts back on the overall potential. While widespread severe is certainly not happening there may be some localized intense storms. Wind shear is very strong aloft with some indications of winds backing a bit in the llvls. Storm mode will be predominately linear but an embedded supercell would be possible.

I hear it's been super hot and dry in Utah too

That sounds great but that is pointless without any thunderstorm chances. Just like winter...cold is pointless without snow. 80's with dewpoints in the lower 70's is perfect...because then at night it drops into the 70's and it's very comfortable to be outside. Maybe the Gulf will pick up with tropical and you'll get remnants.

I don't want to be under the death ridge with no convection lol. You've just been baking outside of the solid severe chances you had a few months ago but everything missed you.

At this point we really may never get into the bigger heat or anything sustained at least. The pattern across the Arctic domain just doesn't want to let up. That omega block pattern just continues to be persistent. These pieces of shortwave energy which move into southeastern Canada just ride along the jet stream and amplify significantly as they move into southeastern Canada with that strong ridging in the polar region. Also that ridging keeps oscillating between the interior West and central Plains.

Posted this in the severe thread but nobody goes in there but is there a true warm front which lifts north tomorrow night or Tuesday morning? Can't find anything definitive supporting a warm front but it boggles me b/c we're advecting a higher theta-e airmass in but maybe it's just the result of developing southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching trough?

Actually you know what...is there really a true warm front which lifts north? I can't find anything really supporting a warm front. I guess the advection of the higher theta-e airmass is just due to the developing southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching trough?

Not even sure why I'm making this thread because it really is stupid and this summer sucks. First off, this isn't going to be a widespread severe weather threat and event, ok. I mean those don't happen around here very often. So when one gets excited for severe potential you're doing so with the understanding that you're really just hoping to see a thunderstorm and anything else is a bonus. But anyways, this sucks, this summer sucks, but on Tuesday...yeah there is the chance for thunderstorms and the best potential will probably be western Massachusetts and western Connecticut because the stupid timing looks too freaking slow...as always. Anyways on Tuesday shortwave energy rounding the base of a longwave trough will move across southeastern Canada and northern New England with a cold front at the surface. Ahead of the cold front it will actually be quite warm and humid with temperatures climbing well into the 80's (cooler for you mountainous folk and for those who live under a forest). Dewpoints will continue to climb through the day into the evening so highest dewpoints will likely be towards evening. While crappy mid-level lapse rates (b/c that's all we freaking get is stupid, garbage mid-level lapse rates) will hold back how unstable we can become, combination of temperatures into the 80's and dewpoints pushing through the 60's should contribute to 1000-1500 J/KG. Note: Despite the loss of surface heating moving into the evening the increasing dewpoints will offset this to keep the CAPE in place. Shear...shear is actually pretty strong with as much as 40-50 knots of bulk shear modeled. This is unseasonably strong and would help with thunderstorm organization. There may even be enough low-level shear present to warrant the potential for a tornado, especially in any discrete storm. but let's remember THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IS WEST B/C EVERYTHING SUCKS. We should see one or multiple lines of convection develop and push towards southern New England during the evening. We will see this weaken and given the stupid weak lapse rates and modest deep CAPE lightning probably won't be much. Stupid but we'll see. Let's just get this over with.