weatherwiz

A bit of an increase in convection northwest of Atlantic City

Looks like forward speed continues to slowly increase. Heaviest rain here could legit be done by like 7-8 PM (in CT).

Not sure if it's model error but there is like a small pocket of pretty steep lapse rates that tries to get overhead. I see at least a few wet microbursts tomorrow along with potential for a tornado or two.

Tropical Storm Winds extending farther west of the center per latest update Tropical Storm Fay Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 725 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY... Surface observations and radar data indicate that tropical-storm- force winds now extend farther to the west of the center of Fay. This necessitates an extension of the Tropical Storm Warning southward from Cape May, New Jersey, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, including the southern Delaware Bay. A special advisory will be issued in lieu of the 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC) intermediate advisory to update the forecast and warnings for Fay. $$ Forecaster Brennan

Hudson Valley track...a precursor to winter?

Severe outbreak up north for @OceanStWx Tuesday? Could see severe here too Monday!!! WE'RE GETTING ACTIVE BABY!!!!!

yup...late overnight and tomorrow could be interesting...guidance not showing much developing, however, should something pop many favorable ingredients. Tomorrow thinks could start popping by 10-11 AM.

Is there another source to look at Daily Climate Reports? This whole crap with some NWS products not working is beyond ridiculous now...especially SPC outlooks...not populating for like 45 minutes past time

Bingo

Agreed...strongest winds for sure across NJ and southern Long Island...and even there not a huge deal...maybe gusts 40-50 mph. If there is strong enough convection maybe someone gusts to like 60. Yeah there certainly was room for this to be a bit stronger but...actually really wasn't far off from that occurring I don't think. I agree, this is pretty impressive for this time of year. I don't get the crapping on this system either...but if someone isn't seeing crazy weather in their backyard then a system is garbage...I mean which is fine...too each their own but don't go around calling something crappy or garbage just b/c you're not seeing anything. It's like everyone has the mentality of significant damage or nothing.

Plus water temperatures up the entire coast would be much warmer...obviously only speculation but if this scenario was another month or two from now we could possibly be looking at a hurricane.

I guess we'll have to see whether we can generate any breaks in the clouds. Really wouldn't take much to boost llvl CAPE given how moist it is.

If Long island Sound water temperatures were much warmer I would say we probably would see a few brief tornadoes today. If anything though, I think the greatest potential for a brief tornado would actually be across inland CT...away from the shoreline...only b/c the colder waters I think will act to sort of stabilize things around the boundary layer and there will be a bit more llvl instability inland. This typically goes against what you would expect for TOR potential with a TC but the time of year is a little screwy .

Was a bit surprised to see TOR probs increased to 5% later today. Not seeing much model support for enough 3km CAPE...I'm not totally sure what numbers you would want to look for in this situation but I would wager you would like to see at least 75-100+ J of 3km CAPE. There actually could be potential for a brief tornado late tomorrow morning - late afternoon should we get anything to develop...CAMS though sort of keep convection just west of here.

sweet thanks. I wonder if it's worth subscribing to weather.us rather than weathermodels

I've seen like 70-73

are there any euro products for lapse rates?

not without lube first

Saturday looks looks rather intriguing to me...in fact, there are some signals we could see some serious dewpoint pooling. Could see dews maybe 75-77.

I was thinking there could be evening/overnight convection...that's a pretty strong s/w working through PA

Saturday shaping to what could be a big severe day...perhaps several wet microbursts.

Outbreak is certainly a subjective term but IMO, the best way to sort of quantify it is (speaking for tornadoes here) 1. Climatology 2. Geographic area I think...don't quote me on this but I think usually an event which spawns like 3-4+ tornadoes in our region is considered an outbreak (keeping in mind that our climo is very low). Also, let's not forget how small of a geographic area New England represents then the scale which severe weather/tornadoes occur on. I mean we have had 4 F4 tornadoes occur within a relatively small area...Great Barrington, Windsor Locks, CT, Hamden, CT, Worcester, MA. That's actually pretty impressive...when you factor in aerial size. We have also had more than several events produce 4-5+ tornadoes...yes granted most part they're weak ones but compared to our yearly tornado climo that's alot for one event.

I appreciate this information here. I've never fully understood this process with TCs (and can say I've never tried to explore learning...not sure why). My weakest knowledge in this field lies within tropical weather. This though provided a great visual in my head of the physics/processes here and I actually understand much better. Thank you.

1. No not really 2. We've had our share of tornado outbreaks

The higher helicity I think is more of a product of the stronger llvl flow rather than turning of the winds in the lower levels. However, storm moving may be slightly angled compared to the mean flow so that could certainly enhance rotation potential. Regardless, I don't think instability in the lowest lvls is going to be sufficient enough.