weatherwiz

It is funny looking but it might not be far off. The main low across FL is quite a bit farther south than forecast models had indicated this would track. For example, TPA has been reporting NE winds since yesterday evening. Models (as late as 12z yesterday) had TPA predominately S winds then becoming NW as the low departed...indicating the sfc low was going to be tracking north of them. But it would appear the NAM tracks this sfc low directly off to the NE and probably far enough to limit any phasing. Models initially had this tracking NE just off the GA/SC coast and not hugging the coast but still close enough to the NE coast to get some phasing.

Good I hope we keep above-average SST's through the winter and start racking up 80's in March so the water's are nice and toasty for the early part of severe season

6z GFS bufkit for KCAR. Now this is sexy. what a beautiful cross hair signature. Actually much more intense than the NAM too

starting to see some big differences arise with the southern stream s/w on the 18z NAM moving through tomorrow evening. Given the degree of convection that may unfold across Florida that's actually not too surprising

Those above-avg precip anomalies in the Tennessee Valley probably associated with a high end severe event

and there is an abundance of this available

I would have to think there is strong merit to that right? I mean isn't one way to attack the PV is to keep pelting it with strong s/w after strong s/w? At least with the Pattern configuration across the Pacific we're driving potent shortwaves into the Arctic and attaching the PV.

If anything at least we'll probably have another few high end severe weather events we can track. Maybe winter will come in March this year. Severe season and winter season reversed

ughhhh thanks. damn it more work

Hopefully this works. This is fun to watch. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/9fafb126-8f56-451f-a6f4-35fd7f02271e

One thing that is pretty noteworthy moving forward is how much the models pretty much turnover the Arctic and the stratosphere. Models really destroy the SPV over the next few weeks and multiple weak PV lobes just get sprayed everywhere. Also very interesting to see how the pattern actually looks to become more favorable as the NAO/PNA signals sort of weaken a bit. I think the biggest change though is models eliminate ridging across the Atlantic...I think that's been killing us b/c even with -NAO there have been weaknesses in the height field over eastern Canada and this ATL ridging feeds into the ridging over the Arctic domain and enhances the ridging and expands West.

It's always so easy to get impatient early on (maybe moreso this year given the climo of Nina regimes) but (outside of last winter) how often have we really gotten slammed early in the season? It certainly can happen but like mid-January into March is when we really seem to roll.

at least sun is starting to set later now

Maybe the reindeer farting will add some additional nuclei into the atmosphere to help with the snow. Or maybe they'll pee and moistening it up a bit b/c regardless of what QPF looks like it's very dry

Seems awfully dry aloft Christmas Eve ahead of the system. Would probably want it to directly track over one of the Lakes to help retain a bit of moisture. Probably some moistening up occurs towards coastal areas.

The air is drier than Anthony's Christmas cookies

meh

This system actually has a pretty well defined inverted trough feature. Not just defined at the sfc either but pretty stout well through the llvls. Also looks like there may be multiple llvl convergence zones at play here. northern tip of Maine where nobody lives may do well.

ughhh this could be so sexy

Wasn't the NAO more easterly based too in 1970-1971? I always get it confused as to whether we want a more easterly/westerly based -NAO and when I play it out by picturing it I always feel like easterly is better b/c it would support more of a trough axis digging just west of us and deeper. But there are instances I think where we've had some decent NAO blocks but end up with ridging under them across the east. I wonder how much the AMO influences this. One big differences between the 70's and now is the AMO was heading into the direction of negative during the 60's and was solidly negative in the 70's (and peaked in the early 70's). It seems like right now everything is just way too hostel. Both Pacific/Arctic and they're kind of fighting each other. One pattern type is trying to win out and be dominant but there's just too much going on.

Is the majority of the initial cyclogenesis tied into the beginning of phasing or perhaps more of a byproduct of the gulf Stream? Maybe that northern stream vort is just a bit too strong as well here but this stupid zonal flow we have right now is probably the ultimate demise. nice airmass overhead now but that quickly gets shunted east.

Exactly...getting a perfect pattern is one piece, getting pieces to time right is another

I do agree the Pacific does hold more weight overall, however, that's not always 100% definitive. There are times where (b/c of our latitude...more us than you) that the Arctic can be a significant influence. At the end of the day there are alot more factors and influences to consider than just Arctic/Pacific but those are the go to b/c they're "easy to assess". But in this case and to your previous post...a better positioned PNA would have could have helped but I think the evolution of that southern stream s/w is what gets us.

It's so freaking pathetic how we can't get anything to work right for us. Actually have a decent shot for some phasing for once (and closer t o "perfect" than we've had) and what happens...we have a shitty airmass. So much for a "negative NAO". This just further proves that there is alot more to things than whatever phase a certain teleconnection is in. The structure and where core anomalies are situated are a million times more important than whatever something is just positive or negative.

We probably get more ASOS stations verifying severe than they do blizzard criteria