weatherwiz

I was thinking there could be evening/overnight convection...that's a pretty strong s/w working through PA

Saturday shaping to what could be a big severe day...perhaps several wet microbursts.

Outbreak is certainly a subjective term but IMO, the best way to sort of quantify it is (speaking for tornadoes here) 1. Climatology 2. Geographic area I think...don't quote me on this but I think usually an event which spawns like 3-4+ tornadoes in our region is considered an outbreak (keeping in mind that our climo is very low). Also, let's not forget how small of a geographic area New England represents then the scale which severe weather/tornadoes occur on. I mean we have had 4 F4 tornadoes occur within a relatively small area...Great Barrington, Windsor Locks, CT, Hamden, CT, Worcester, MA. That's actually pretty impressive...when you factor in aerial size. We have also had more than several events produce 4-5+ tornadoes...yes granted most part they're weak ones but compared to our yearly tornado climo that's alot for one event.

I appreciate this information here. I've never fully understood this process with TCs (and can say I've never tried to explore learning...not sure why). My weakest knowledge in this field lies within tropical weather. This though provided a great visual in my head of the physics/processes here and I actually understand much better. Thank you.

1. No not really 2. We've had our share of tornado outbreaks

The higher helicity I think is more of a product of the stronger llvl flow rather than turning of the winds in the lower levels. However, storm moving may be slightly angled compared to the mean flow so that could certainly enhance rotation potential. Regardless, I don't think instability in the lowest lvls is going to be sufficient enough.

Kinda looking harder and I'm not so sure there really is a "tornado threat" with this...first off the probability was rather low but I think it's even low enough to where it's not even worth a mention. But I'm not seeing much in the way to support directional wind shear with this...or certainly not enough to cause rotation. I know with tropical systems the land/ocean interaction can aid in this potential but given how cold the SST's are I think we'll see a pretty stable layer develop off-shore. The greatest potential for convection would be pretty far inland but I think in this case any instability is only going to enhance precipitation rates...with such poor lapse rates and deep/moist column it might be tough to generate lightning...not that this is needed for TOR potential as with these setups in about the lowest few km but the lowest few km don't really look impressive.

I haven't used that site in a while. Kinda forgot about it actually. Need to play around with it again but i find it confusing to figure out lol

Good...I prefer to stay within the 585-591dm height range. This is a pretty solid look for some ridge roller MCS activity. Also a really good look for some nasty squall lines. Obviously there are numerous details that would have to be ironed out but if you're looking at some severe shots, synoptically this offers some positive vibes. I would hope this could flag some potential for EML advection but would love to see more of what the H7 configuration looks like. It seemed like some EML shots want to eject our way but they become quite muted pretty quickly as they traverse into the upper-Midwest.

Hopefully with tonight's 0z runs we will have a much better idea of track and placement of heaviest rain. Until this system becomes a bit more organized it's quite difficult to really assess...that's if it even does become a bit more organized. Should this remain rather disorganized we'll still see some very heavy rainfall but there may not be a defined axis of where that occurs. Not sure if we pop anything Saturday afternoon but the potential is there for a few supercells.

I think there is window for some nocturnal convection Saturday night with the risk for damaging winds/large hail. Pretty impressive s/w moving through overnight and we look to remain rather unstable

OKX should break their PWAT record for the day (Note: using 0z soundings the record for the day is 2.05'')

ahhh not far from where my girlfriend lives then

are you closer to the Danbury side of Newtown or on the other end?

the Gulf Stream is the Viagra of streams

Next Monday and Tuesday look interesting. Tuesday could be more up north but Monday could be big if we can get that plume of steeper lapse rates to stay intact.

Nice batch of stuff headed into SW CT. Hoping it moves through Branford after.

Going to be some real nasty storms up north today. Bulk shear even increases a bit down this way a little later on so we may see a few nasty ones too.

Yes you’re right

that is some crazy lift for July.

yeah for sure. If this can certainly develop into something and move northward at a fast enough clip then things would certainly be more interesting.

indeed

A/C is STUPID. Unless you have a job working outside it's the most ridiculous and outrageous thing ever. Sitting inside and it's FREEZING. I went outside...it's so warm and humid...it feels great. A/C literally is nothing a summer killer. "awwww I got a little sweat trickling down my backside, excuse me while I run in front of the A/C"

Speed looks a bit quicker too so that could limit overall flash flooding threat. I'm thinking bet chance for a brief TOR is along the Jersey shore

derecho