weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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Henri is probably vaccinated
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yeah I don't see those crazy west bends happening either.
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Yup...and I still don't think this west shift is done. Really not finding much reason to believe otherwise. If we don't see a shift east with 0z tonight I don't think it will happen b/c with the special 18z balloon launches going on (if that is still a thing) you would think the ulvl trough is going to be sampled very well plus the 0z balloon launches.
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Also a couple members going happy in their pants
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Still with a big shift west.
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what products are you looking at to see tilt/stacked system?
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It's such a tough situation b/c you either have to play it up or downplay it right now...there is no in between. By the time we truly know how impactful or un-impactful this will be it will be too late to communicate and too late for people to prepare. That is the scariest part about tropical systems up this way...the lead time to properly prepare is just too little.
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I'm thinking gusts 70-80 mph along CT shoreline with gusts 40-50 mph inland (especially east of River) with 30-40 west. In french we call this "la damage"
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I'm gauging landfall either central or eastern Long Island. Bad news bears for CT. Trees either coming down or your floating down the road in a stream of water.
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GEFS really hinting at the slingshot NW
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Flooding could certainly be a pretty big issue up there
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I am not personally, but I am frightened in the sense that there is little time for people to prepare or for people to truly understand what may transpire.
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This x 1,000. We can't get caught up over potential for hurricane force winds. A prolonged duration of gusts even 40-50 mph is going to do a quite a bit of damage. If we get into the 50-60 mph range...it will be on the ugly side. And well...that is becoming increasingly possible.
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This is becoming quite, quite, quite concerning for CT. At some point the alarms have to be sounded because there is not much lead time to prepare now. Can't keep debating over west. vs. east...we'll be doing that up until the storm.
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GFS about as bad for CT as the NAM is...oh boy. Easily TS force winds too for much of the state I would think.
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you can lose your entire home and pretty much everything you own, not to mention life, from flooding. Food can be replaced. You can adapt to losing power...hard to adapt to your house being flooded out.
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He may even be able to go out for a quick run as the eye moves overhead
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3km NAM continues to go into western Long Island. hurricane force gusts into SW CT
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Yeah they would get hammered very hard. Would be pretty ugly there. I would think on this solution a good part of CT could be looking at 40-50 mph gusts and 60-70 mph along the shoreline. Then we introduce the rain/flooding. Thankfully this weakens quickly but any convective bands are going to locally enhance damaging winds.
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NAM not looking good for CT...particularly the shoreline
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At least we would get some TOR's on the HRRR
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spilling the tackle box
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I would much rather lose power for a week then have flooding problems. Losing power is merely just an inconvenience. Flooding...well that can be just devastating
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If we can't get EML's may as well do hurricanes
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we screwed
