weatherwiz

I'm actually very happy for this for the sole reason there were so many hype forecasts about how crazy active it was going to be and blah blah blah b/c of the persisting Nina conditions and solely using ENSO as an indicator. At some point there will be a realization that ENSO (unless in a strong state) does not hold the weight we all once thought it did.

Watch out for cirrus Thursday...although that may be more of an issue for northern New England but it's something to watch. We've had plenty of higher end of the spectrum heat days held back b/c of high clouds.

It was also in a really tough radar spot. we need radar back at BDL!!!!!!

Ocean may evaporate is that verifies

Obviously I think we know the extent of the heat is way overdone, but if not, it's very hard to see that verifying. First off, there is likely to be some sort of at least weakly diffused [cold front] boundary somewhere within the region. Based on the flow aloft and how it looks to potentially be convectively active across the northern Plains (closer and just north of the international border) we are going to have potential to deal with lots of high cloud debris...heck, maybe even chances for convection. If we were seeing 850's of like +24C to +26C or whatever being modeled...might be a bit more optimistic because we all know models tends to back off on those as we get closer. Anyways...one of these days we will see an outcome like this verify.

59-mph gusts at the airport with flooding...wild. I think they got over 2'' of rain last night lol. They average just above 4'' per year I think.

It was quite the boundary for sure with an extensive temperature/moisture gradient. Despite how significant the flooding was in the St. Louis area and the devastating flooding that resulted in Kentucky I had thought we would see even more flooding occur this week. That boundary really did not move much either over the course of the week. I think what helped prevent a more widespread significant episode was the precipitation ended up coming in more batches.

Not sure what to take end of next week. GFS has some high heat building in towards the end of the week while the Euro is a bit more reserved. Pretty big differences too between the Euro/GFS at H5 with where the ridge is centered. There looks to be a [weak] cold front which tries pushing across the Northeast later in the week so sort of leaning towards a more reserved (but still hot) Euro look.

Las Vegas got absolutely crushed last night.

Could have been a tree topper

This rain is wild. Severe rain

Super intense rain

Montreal screw job?

Rotation not looking bad at all. Was thinking of Palmer. Only about 20 min away but I hate cutting timing close.

Wish I had time to get to South Hadley or just east ughh

Hoping for a solid hit in Springfield! I can hear thunder

in a tough radar spot. rotation seems perhaps a bit too weak but it's gotta be dropping some hail. Starting to see a slight uptick in intensity as they move through the Hudson Valley. Some decent CAPE and shear...lapse rates are quite poor so that will really limit how much stronger these can get. Probably see this activity pulse up and down through sunset.

Nasty cell near Lake Luzere. Looks to be dropping some hail

We're too quick to judge every weather event as bust or not...and then quick to make a judgement based on what happened in our backyards. Now I don't think there is anything totally wrong with that mindset, but when that mindset is then used to try and justify to a group of people...I think that's problematic. Now at the end of the day if you're going to forecast something as significant as tornadoes or widespread wind damage or a widespread 1-2 foot snowstorm...there really better be something, otherwise the public loses faith, especially if it happens over and over.

yeah it had a pretty evident TDS. Surprised it took a while for the warning to be updated to make mention of radar confirmed.

Part of the problem is perception. Keeping this tied solely to convection when watches are issued and of course with the SPC convective outlooks...these are probabilistic forecasts - meaning they are that...probabilities. It is very difficult to verify probabilistic forecasts. If there is a large say severe thunderstorm watch box that extends from say Maine through New England and maybe into Pennsylvania and New Jersey the majority of people would probably anticipate and expected widespread severe weather or a significant amount of reports within the watch box - but is that really true? Is that a fair assessment to make? All a severe thunderstorm watch means is that atmospheric conditions are favorable (key word) for any thunderstorms which develop to become capable of producing damaging winds, hail > 1'', or a tornado. Now you would expect that there will be at least some of these events within the box. But what accounts for verifying? I'm sure the SPC has a defined criteria which is probably in a publication somewhere but if let's say there were a total of 10-severe reports within that entire watch box, was it really a bust? Anyways and this probably answers the question, but there is a reason why watch boxes probably only get thrown up when there is an expectation for a certain number of reports. But in terms of the SPC probabilities if we have a 10% TOR contour and no TOR's is that really a bust? That defines that there is a 10% probability for a tornado within 25-miles of any point within that contour...or in other words, a 90% probability there will not be a tornado. Obviously in terms of climo that 10% is going to be extremely high...but at the end of the day the probability is still exceedingly low. I wouldn't be surprised if some years from now you see major adjustments with convective forecasting, how it's communicated, and even with probabilities and so forth as the data set grows and we become more sophisticated.

That cell must be interacting with some local boundary

I've reached my attachment quota

Ughhh saying I can’t upload photo. Something about size but it’s a small photo

Looks like a TDS