weatherwiz

If we get severe Friday I'll be fine with 35-40 Saturday with cold, drizzle, and cat paws

Tampa I think has a decent fan base...you may be thinking of the Florida Panthers

It's like watching the Tampa Bay Lightning win cups year after year

At least it has a severe threat Friday!!!

I think you accidentally plotted heights as opposed to temperature anomalies. I would have thought though it would still show positive departures in the 100mb height anomaly, but that could be a result of the auto-generated legend.

That is quite an unseasonably cool airmass still being projected on the models. Not taking any airmass modification into account, I think there is great validity for such potential. But before getting into that, when you look at the source region for that airmass there might not be much room for modification. While this airmass would certainly result in very comfortable daytime temperatures, should we achieve strong mixing (which would be likely with a steep lapse rate), we'll get to at least climo with maybe some areas a tick or two below. But like you said...it's the overnight period which could be of greatest interest. Given the presence of very dry air and rather low (for time of year) theta-e values, combined with some potential for strong radiative cooling....the favored cold spots could certainly plunge down into the mid-30's and even some of the major climo stations could get into the 40's. Should any full de-coupling occur profiles are favorable for a downward spiral from daytime high's.

Don't be sorry. I thought it was good discussion. For one, it's interesting to see how we perceive something to be but then you look at data and the data doesn't reflect what was perceived.

I think the fact that we've been above-average with low/comfortable levels of humidity certainly plays a factor too.

The best way to really put it is we haven't seen anything totally out of the ordinary or anything anomalous. We've had some hot days and we've had some cool days. But we have not entered a constant or consistent pattern which we really shouldn't be anyways given we're in the mid-latitudes. The pattern should really only be more consistent during the dead of summer (July/August) and dead of winter (January/February). Sometimes I think it would be better to view anomalies in terms of standard deviation as opposed to just an "average".

We've been above-average since mid-May...obviously driven moreso by warm mins, but even high's have been above-average. While we certainly have had some cool days this just goes to show that when we've had these cool days they really aren't far off from climo, but when we have the warmer days we're a good several-degrees or so above climo.

Historically, most of our HHH periods come closer to mid-July. Like dendrite said, we've had some hot days...and of those few they were quite hot. It's still relatively early for such prolonged periods. Even what's happening across the Missouri Valley east to the mid-Atlantic coast is a bit early...not totally uncommon but it's quite the prolonged stretch

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In all seriousness...it's only mid-June lol. Probably up until recently (as in the past decade) have we ever really entered more consistent stretches of heat and humidity...and I'll define that as temperatures ~85 or greater with dewpoints > 65. Obviously these thresholds need to be adjusted for location (proximity to water, elevation, latitude). It really used to be like first few weeks of July for the big heat and then we would really crank dewpoints (>70) more like later part of July and August.

84-mph at ORD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Did the observer at ORD take cover????? Waiting for a METAR update

Maybe we can get some solid elevated convection Thursday night.

I was getting all tingly looking at mesoanalysis in the OV but now I'm depressed

Forecast supercell composite parameter later Too bad they capped

KCVG dewpoint hit 80! Wish we could get that

191-days until cutter and rain season returns

unfortunately no fun for us with this one and looks like we get screwed with timing at the end of the week. sigh

That's about where I was thinking the northern fringe of the complex would track but some of the models indicate this could become a pretty large complex so maybe the northern fringe does get farther north like the NAM shows.

The NAM/GFS are awfully far north with that MCS/"derecho" for tonight/tomorrow. Although the GFS seems more realistic with where it should actually track.

We can only hope. I've been trying really hard not to get too excited for anything 5+ (sometimes even 3+) days the past few years (including winter). But it's nice to see this potential still on the table from a few days ago. Going to be lots to iron out with how things evolve.