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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. Agreed...this has been a bit problem is a quite a bit of dry air to contend with. I think the airmass is even drier then Monday's. It's going to take some time to really saturate I think. Also, the storm ingests a ton of dry air from the southwest. Looping RH at 500/700 is pretty uneasy looking. Sure, where you're lift is stronger and ulvl divergence is greater you'll offset this some, but we're playing with time here.
  2. This is going to be brutally ugly I think. I'd still be extremely skeptical with these QPF outputs, especially on such a widespread level.
  3. DO watch...it's incredible. My girlfriend is a defense attorney and she was able to point stuff out. It certainly may be a case of Netflix catering to a view point but wow...I had some feelings.
  4. Terrible...i was shocked to see ORD in a WSW when I woke up. That's one market I have to forecast for and looking at data today there was still no consistency or confidence.
  5. 0z NAM early on and its so much slower with everything so far.Barely has the line getting into Memphis by 12z now
  6. The GFS may actually end up not performing that well overall with this and not just talking about locally. I guess it also depends on what metrics you're evaluating, but the GFS has always been fast with everything. It was fast with the convection moving across the south and fast with timing of everything into the OV and Northeast. NAM was always slower with everything.
  7. I just watched the Netflix documentary the other night...absolutely wild. Did you ever watch Making a Murder?
  8. I'd be very skeptical with that much QPF that far north this time around. Convection is going to rob a ton of moisture from this. Also, the better dynamic support may be more south.
  9. It's cyclical, we go through several year stretches of putrid winters, then several year stretches of great winters. If we go through another couple winters like this in a row then there is something definitely wrong with the climate.
  10. Well this winter has been an unfortunate dud, however, we can't sulk for too long as severe weather season is RIGHT around the corner. This thread has been started a bit later then usual, but with some increasing winter potential moving through late February and early March the winter torch was lit a bit longer. Anyways we are 60 days away from May 1st!!!!!
  11. Well looks like a low is blossoming. Now that it's actually occurring this should get ingested into the 0z models so hopefully that will help reduce alot of the uncertainty. Not just for our region but for the northern Ohio Valley...what a brutal pain of a forecast there
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