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weatherwiz

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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    TODAY IS A DAY WHY THEY NEED TO BALLOON LAUNCHES FROM BDL...AT LEAST DURING SPECIAL EVENTS.
  2. weatherwiz
    The NAM does look a bit more impressive...the 3KM NAM has been super consistent too
  3. weatherwiz
    Another big key for SW CT will be that plume of steep lapse rates
  4. weatherwiz
    The HRRR does seem to always be a bit aggressive with pushing warm fronts through. Just based on low track alone I can't see it getting that far north...but doesn't mean severe wx potential doesn't exist that far north
  5. weatherwiz
    no change to the SPC outlook...a bit shocking. Sun poking here in Branford.
  6. weatherwiz
    hmmm outside of shear OKX sounding is not impressive at all
  7. weatherwiz
    nasty looking cell southeast of Syracuse. There's your elevated supercell and what is indicative even just along/north of WF EDIT: actually may not be that elevated
  8. weatherwiz
    SW CT very much in the game. The warm front looks to even be making progress. And even just on the north side of the front you have to watch for elevated supercells with large hail potential. The instability/thermal gradient with this front needs to be kept in mind.
  9. weatherwiz
    where the warm front moves through skies should clear relatively quickly. On satellite you basically go from startacrap to naked sun bathing within the span of someones yard
  10. weatherwiz
    It's due to track of sf low. But the warm front should get into CT...probably not through whole state. The greatest question just seems to be destabilization...HRRR doesn't want to generate all that much...nor other models. Maybe clouds too much of a problem but with those steeper lapse rates nearby and high dews won't take much heating to crank instability.
  11. weatherwiz
    bufkit soundings not nearly as unstable cross Waterbury, CT (from all models) as they were yesterday but this is pretty impressive to see from the HREF
  12. weatherwiz
    Today is just going to be a question of instability I think. I do think we'll get the warm front into CT and probably very close to Hartford. We're talking about effective bulk shear values approaching 60 knots with effective helicity values of 300 m2s2...if we push MLCAPE ~2,000+ J/KG (which is possible) there is going to be some big time trouble today.
  13. weatherwiz
    oh great COD stopped working
  14. weatherwiz
    0z HRRR looking rather nasty.
  15. weatherwiz
    Bust in the TOR department but there were several microbursts. Lapse rates were forecast to be pretty good actually but AM crap sort of weakened them. Never did generate a good amount of MLCAPE and shear was just too much for the updrafts and that hurt convection from becoming deep
  16. weatherwiz
    yeah that it does
  17. weatherwiz
    That is super scary...that much CAPE with over 400 m2s2 of helicity. Nothing good can come from that
  18. weatherwiz
    Waterbury, CT on the NAM 4 PM tomorrow
  19. weatherwiz
    I honestly don't know if the probs were even that high then. maybe 45 but I can't recall seeing a 60 but who knows...memory fading
  20. weatherwiz
    I think this composite overdoes things at times but I mean...the ingredients are there and like you said, where warm front settles it's probably going to be big. Also noting that 18z is kinda focusing the boundary a bit more SW...also noting that forecast soundings actually back the llvl winds a bit (and not in the good way)
  21. weatherwiz
    I don't recall ever seeing a 60 up this way...though it may have happened with 05/15/2018. If the damaging wind signal becomes widespread I think we could see a moderate risk.
  22. weatherwiz
    probabilistic probability of a significant tornado (EF2+) based on a combination of forecast mixed-layer CAPE, mixed-layer LCL height, 0-1km helicity, and bulk shear
  23. weatherwiz
    OH MY GOD
  24. weatherwiz
    you know me too well
  25. weatherwiz
    and that's not far from where I work! That could be perfect
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