weatherwiz

Focusing on just the southern stream here, but I wonder if one big key is how convective active it becomes along and ahead of the front Saturday and Sunday within the Tennessee Valley/Southeast. Both GFS and Euro are quite active, however, the Euro is more robust. Looks like with this more robust activity and a stronger southern vort. it helps to pump up heights off the EC and leads to the better phase interaction between the two streams with better digging of the northern vort

As we get closer, we could probably really start focusing on the potential for dynamic cooling to negate a subpar initial airmass. In these solutions were seeing airmass wouldn't be a huge concern as the degree of dynamic cooling would probably be pretty significant.

You always gets leery of stall scenarios this far out, but the H5 evolution, at least on the Euro, would support that idea. Would really like to see some better blocking support to truly get excited for that idea though.

I am praying the PAC can finally give us an assist. The pattern evolution across the PAC becomes quite complex with a major split flow developing. Looks like the shortwave which enhances the PNA ridge across the western comes all the way from Asia and amplifies as it digs south through the Gulf of Alaska...or slightly east. One thing that is great to see though or there isn't a train of shortwave energy within the northern stream across the CONUS over the weekend. Also, I would watch for confluence to arise on future model runs with PV lobe nearby

Yeah my assessment wasn't the best. I was looking at 850 temp anomalies and also was looking at bit ahead of when things would be going.

At least we'll have a cold llvl airmass with respect to climo. You just hope that we can minimize diurnal warmth as much as possible. Coastal locations will be quite the challenge obviously.

This is certainly the type of storm potential where going crazy over model run-to-model run is not worth it. These setups which are highly dependent on phasing are extremely fickle. The only two features which really matter now are the handling of the pieces of energy involved. Just because some successive runs at this stage don't show a storm doesn't mean it's a trend and just b/c successive runs show a storm doesn't mean a storm.

Getting pretty intrigued with Saturday. Obviously there are questions regarding the track, but the upper-level dynamics seem much more impressive then the past few systems with tracked east-southeast across the Great Lakes. Much stronger vort which remains closed later and you have the jet streak beginning to round the base of the trough moving into the Northeast, indicating potential for rapid amplification or strengthening. I wonder though if the southern track will pose the highest likelihood for a more intense system? Sure that will suck more most, but would be a beauty to watch unfold.

Summer is so close but so far

Just saw a bald eagle fly through the yard

Well I'm really hoping things will quiet down across the country in terms of winter weather soon so I can really get back into this. Anyways, I have started to go back and re-do this whole project. I have completed the list of La Nina winters by strength (weak, moderate, strong/super-strong). When looking at structure (west-based, basin-wide, east-based), I want to go about this in a way that is a bit more complex. Originally, I was doing structure based on DJF SSTA's, however, I think structure evolution also needs to be taken into account. For example, you could have east-based during the fall and that could evolve into a west-based structure moving through winter. So for this, I am doing SSTA composites for OND, NDJ, and DJF. When I get into the core of the composites (500mb height anomalies, Sea-level pressure anomalies, temperature anomalies, Outgoing longwave radiation anomalies, etc.) I am going to break winter into two halves. December 1 - January 30 February 1 - March 31 Doing this will now incorporate March into my composites which I didn't have before and obviously we know winter can be a tale of two halves. I think doing this breakdown too will elicit better signals of pattern change periods in the historical record.

Between 2.5” and 2.75” here. Couldn’t get exact b/c I forgot my glasses when I went outside

I know now with the other reports but it caught me off guard. Roads finally getting covered here

Thunder!!!! I think I just had thunder!!!

Lightning!!

Coating on the grass but nada on roads

Snow has started!!!!!

FWIW, 18z NAM/GFS initialized and are WAYYYY high with dewpoints for this current time

yeah I used some and got the different results. The one with arctan yielded 31, there was another calculator which calculated it based on temp/RH and that was 35. Then the "third rule" was 36. But I think the arctan is more accurrate

Actually...it might be somewhere around 35/36? but getting varying results based on equation used. EDIT: just got 31 using the long ass equation with arctan.

Guessing around 34

Next time stamp is much better and then it's all hell after that

GFS bufkit for ORH. Bufkit definitely rips looking over several locations, but noticing some subsidence at several locations too, even on the HRRR

Just look at Denver. How often do you see them sometimes 70-80+ the day before snow and they'll still get a foot lol