weatherwiz

I 100% agree with this. You can never be too sure, especially when there are uncertainties still at play. Slight wobbles in track (tropical/winter) can have huge ramifications on extent of impacts and extent/severity of impact.

I think the one I was thinking of was Isabelle, however, I do remember Charlie. I remember talking with my Earth Science teacher about Charlie which I believe was my junior year in HS...Isabelle was a bit before that.

ahhh that sounds familiar. makes sense because I am pretty sure it was during early high school years

What was the storm we got...I want to say sometime between 2002-2006...I'm pretty sure I was in high school and we got a crap ton of rain and some wind. I think there was even a tornado watch. I want to say maybe 2004 or 2005 (it was not the remnants of Katrina).

Floyd was pretty fun (well I enjoyed it being so young). We had this brook that ran a bit back behind our house and I remember getting off the bus from school walking home and it looked more like a raging stream.

Probably sometime early December riding builds in and dominates for a few months

Should just rename Padre Island Tropical Landfalling Island

summer is warm no matter what...even if below-average (unless it's a BRUTAL day with clouds, rain, and 60's). winter is cold no matter what...even if above-average.

Basically a much needed soaking for them and not too much rain to yield significant flooding concerns.

I was even going to think mid 90's. I remember being super young.

I think there were one or two nights I stayed up the whole night (or at least woke up every few hours) just to see the bulletin across the screen with an update.

Was that early 2000's? I thought that was earlier...like in the late 90's. I remember though TWC and I think even local news being extremely concerned up this way. I remember TWC having the bulletins that went from top of screen down as opposed to the scroll at the bottom. That's how you knew it was some serious ****

We may be able to get some elevated activity Thursday night. This kind of sucks because all ingredients will be in place for good severe, it's just the timing of everything is all off. I don't think we can totally write off Friday yet though, especially if we can warm sector.

I’m going to make a movie called morning of the Twister. It will be about New England and twisters in the morning and two refers happening because of high dews…did anyone get that? High dews…get used to that b/c that’s what summer will be like. High dews. The goal posts definitely be shifting. Before 55 was comfy…then 60…then 65….no…no…noonooo.noo. 65+ will be common. That’s what summer will be. Get used to it, embrace it, enjoy it. It will lead to stuff. Can’t deny if you can’t supply

Were there forecasts for sun? Should have been pretty obvious with the trough and cold pool we would cloud up quick

MAybe a sneaky threat for some strong storms Monday? Still closely watching next Friday time frame too.

Pretty soon fall is going to be our new tornado season (or late summer/fall).

Wow, EF-2, even if brief if pretty damn good for these parts.

Dark clouds above but nothing on radar. Another updraft tickling me

Dews have started to drop here but were still at least in the lower 60's when I was outside. Outside is so much better when dews are higher.

Yup went outside with the dog for a bit. Nice to see a good amount of sun again.

We watch next Friday

I think there is an updraft right over my head

These setups are tough. If you're not a forecaster doing day-to-day forecasting these setups probably just go unrecognized because they aren't the "big" setups. They are also tough because it's not like they produce every time. It all comes down to just getting enough CAPE in the lowest few km combined with the right amount of shear. There really is no "threshold" either too for value. Ultimately, it's dependent on whether a convective updraft can become mature enough to utilize the ingredients. But looking at mesoanalysis this morning, you had a pocket of 150 m2s2 of 0-1km helicity combined with 100+ J of 3km CAPE. That's a pretty solid combination, especially with LCL's around 500m. Warm front probably provided enough llvl lift and inflow was drawing in from the high theta-e air.