weatherwiz

I'm waiting for one of these years for a flock of geese flying south to get caught up in the circulation and become a TDS

Looks like a brief TDS too

The line was getting kinky and now we gotta TOR

Let's QLCS spin-up Wisconsin style

Nice wind on the leading edge

Really won't take much to draw down some solid gusts (55-65 mph) in that environment. DCAPE too ~500 J/KG so any heavier convective elements are going to yield a wild few minutes for some

There are going to be some localized 5-6'' rainfall totals with this right along a narrow corridor from like SE CT through NE CT into NE MA, SE NH, and into ME.

We need a TDWR at BDL.

Another smudge east and I'll be tickled by the marginal risk

nah I don't think your standards are subjective. I mean at the end of the day was never an impressive setup in terms of wind or even convective potential...your typical run-of-the mill fall-type event. I just like these events because they are so dynamic and there are so many processes involved. But I do think sometimes there is a standard that anytime a thread is made for convection it just assumes there is hype for a monster event or if it isn't a monster setup it isn't worth it. I had originally thought the biggest wind potential with this would be associated with a low topped line of convection, not necessarily synoptic. I didn't think the warm sector was going to be large enough. But wind potential is definitely held back given the signal for heavier rain as we'll really stabilize the boundary-layer. If we ever want to see a big widespread event in these setups we need pretty steep low-level lapse rates which of course are absent here.

I think SE CT through RI and far SE MA stand a chance for some 45-55 mph gusts and then coastal Maine. The rain (totals) signal definitely increased the past 12-hours...but looking back I think the signals were slowly pointing to this happening

No tree left behind

Yeah this event was well modeled a week-plus out. Should have a few shots for some precip (even some flakes in the hills as dendrite mentioned earlier) next week as the closed upper-low over eastern Canada swings a series of fronts through. May actually see a bit of a lull in active weather for a period after next week. Final few weeks of the months who the heck knows...lots of signals though to see consistent deep closed off lows in the East.

TORs galore in Wisconsin. Precursor to tomorrow

ORH I think is pretty centralized for the majority. I'm definitely down...as long as it is a weekend too.

Should see some widespread 35-45+ mph gusts with that line tomorrow night. I bet we see the marginal expanded east. Could see a few embedded severe gusts

This line is so fine I may ask it on date

Let's go baby

I lotion up 365-days a year...an 366 on leap years

yup...instead of cutting into the HV the systems will cut into the OV

That's what the Lions got Sunday with Zeppe

I actually prefer these setups with like 40-50 knot LLJ as opposed to the setups where you have an insane 60-80 knot LJ.

Majority of the CAPE is elevated. Alot will have to do with how much of the region gets into the deeper warm sector. If we can push 60-63°F dews anywhere (probably better shot along the coast) that should yield enough llvl CAPE to get some good wind gusts. But I thought this looked a bit better a few days ago. This was never a setup about CAPE as any focus on CAPE should have been in the lowest few kilometers, but it was more about the potential degree of llvl CAPE with the shear. I was also heavily intrigued with the trough and it was was going to dig and then lift (as the system de-amplifies) across our region but now this looks to happen a bit West. This also has slowed down timing a bit (not that timing really matters in these setups). This will probably be best from NJ along LI, RI, and Cape

After 200-300 damage reports are received.

Thursday funday