weatherwiz

Going to start a separate thread but I'm wondering if we're setting up for a big day tomorrow. The front is running parallel to the upper flow which will naturally slow down the progression of the front. Notice how the mesos are kind of pushing this activity into our areas a bit later and later...IMO that's indicative of a slower progressing system. Latest HRRR is pretty active tomorrow.

ENHANCED RISK COMING UPSTATE NY!!!! Called it yesterday

Love seeing this

I am hoping to at least be able to go a spot for shelf cloud viewing. Might be tough b/c it will be dark. My go to is always BDL but there is this little shopping plaza about 1 min away that has a great view west. Caught a sick shelf cloud and gust front at that spot last summer (it was a year ago yesterday actually).

Well going to be interesting later this afternoon and evening. Normally you worry about loss of diurnal heating, but shear and lapse rates are quite good. Should be a pretty solid line moving through western sections and then probably weakening as it advances farther east, but we'll see.

These cells are wild. Virtually LP supercells with crazy mesos

MDW REPORTED TORNADO https://twitter.com/iembot_lot/status/1679270444493602816?s=46&t=en2ngd1pOYZyWUScL5JbUA KMDW 122321Z 17007KT 9SM -TSRA SCT060CB BKN095 BKN110 26/22 A2965 RMK TORNADO B12 8 W MOV NE TORNADO E20 AO2 LTG DSNT W AND NW RAB10 TSB18 OCNL LTGICCG VC W TS VC W MOV NE P0002 T02610217

What's really intriguing tomorrow too is there is a bit of an EML that moves overhead. It's not a classic EML but breaks off from the mid-West.

Yeah looks pretty prime around there. Unfortunately, I want be able to do that which blows. I'm hoping there will at least be an opportunity for a sick shelf cloud. I would be able to go a bit farther west into MA depending on timing.

Oh I already am I've made a few posts...was thinking of doing a thread. I was originally more excited for upstate NY into VT but this even looks good across western MA and NW CT. Planning on maybe chasing tomorrow evening.

I am in line for a pounding from the HRRR tomorrow night

There's the marginal risk tomorrow with slight risk for upstate NY!!!!!! Wouldn't be surprised to see enhanced there in future outlooks

I should try to read up and see if there are any studies on how well it actually handles convection. But even in other parts of the country during bigger severe setups it always seems lackluster compared to other model guidance but I kind of feel like it actually does a pretty decent job whereas if you're seeing the 3km NAM going wild with convection...it's a good indicator it will be a big day (and this thinking isn't applied necessarily to our area but across the country).

I'm never sure what to make of the 3km NAM.

It's like the Day After Tomorrow in reverse. Instead of all the sensors tanking everything is rising. Instead of water freezing it may boil away

I will not.

oof what a sounding in upstate NY tomorrow. You get any deep convection in this environment, especially something discrete and it's going to take off. LCL and LFC pretty much the same level so it may not be difficult to get some explosive convection up that way tomorrow. That's a great deal of turning in the lowest few km too.

Just pray we can avoid a pattern favoring cutters...if we can avoid that it could be a wild one.

Actually probably even a larger area then that. Maybe most of Vermont to south of Albany and maybe into western MA

Could be some tornado potential across upstate NY through northern VT tomorrow afternoon and early evening.

If this keeps up it's going to be a volatile winter without a doubt. I'm not ready to write off winter just because we may be headed towards strong Nino. Sure the odds aren't great when dealing with a stronger event, but there have been strong Ninos to produce and it's important to understand the mechanisms for that.

Holy smokes

ehhh it really goes much deeper then that. Not all strong EL Nino's are warm winter. We've had some colder than average winter's. Here is a composite of temperature anomalies for weak, moderate, and strong EL Nino winters. ENSO clearly has a strong influence, but there is so much more to it then just ENSO phase and strength. You can see the variation which exists for each season of the same strength magnitude. Lots get discussed too about structure of the ENSO event and where tropical forcing is positioned, but even with those mixed in the signals aren't entirely clear cut. There are so many other factors and influences. As I've done composites on an event-by-event basis instead of just grouping together a bunch of years with similar strength or structure it becomes more evident there are many wild cards and ultimately there is always a different feature which is going to be the driver or a key contributor. Weak: Moderate: Strong Super-strong:

Haven't checked in here in a bit but I had a hunch I would see some posts about the PDO. It will be interesting to see what role the PDO plays moving into winter. While there is a correlation between ENSO/PDO phase, we're well into a negative PDO regime and the overall list of EL Nino's coincident with -PDO is relatively short (compared to the EL Nino dataset). Below is a list of -PDO winters coincident with EL Nino (note: this list only includes years where PDO was obviously negative) and EL Nino strength 1911-1912 (moderate EL Nino) 1914-1915 (borderline weak/moderate EL Nino) 1919-1920 (weak EL Nino) 1923-1924 (borderline weak/moderate EL Nino) 1951-1952 (moderate EL Nino) 1953-1954 (weak EL Nino) 1965-1966 (Super-strong EL Nino) 1968-1969 (moderate EL Nino) 1972-1973 (Super-strong EL Nino) 2004-2005 (weak EL Nino) 2006-2007 (weak EL Nino) 2018-2019 (weak EL Nino)

I was just looking at SSTA's. This is pretty mind boggling. Was going to post something in the ENSO/winter thread but the PDO is pretty insane. I think the june PDO value was the lowest June value on record