weatherwiz

I wish we could get another summer like 2008. The most prolific cold pool summer we may have ever had. Days and days of hailers in June and July. I think 22% or something of severe hail reports on record in New York (criteria I think was still 3/4'' then) occurred that year! (1950-2008).

There's a Bloom-ing idiot in Boston

It's certainly quite cold aoft, though on the outter edges of the brunt of it

Is that the equivalent of flower heaven?

This shot of cooler weather is no surprise, but the overall theme is going to be when we have warmth...it's going to be quite anomalous and its going to make these "cooler shots" seem more impressive then they really are. 50's and 30's at night with snow showers isn't crazy for April...getting consecutive days and strings of 80's and 90's is

I am wondering if the global SST's are having any influence at all. Outside of the eastern Pacific along the West Coast (which is really just an enhanced North Pacific current) and off the South America coast, waters are well above-average. I think the big focal point here is the Gulf of Mexico. I don't think we pay enough credit or attention to the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf of Mexico has an extreme influence on the climate across the eastern third of the country. Plus look at the waters off the East Coast. These two are almost certainly influencing advecting airmasses. I've actually been going back and finally digging through the Kocin books and was looking at some past storm tracks of big storms. These warmer waters, particularly off the East Coast (and the gulf) have to be significantly altering storm track, where cyclogenesis occurs, and even influences the cyclogenetic process itself. I would really love to compare SSTAs within these two regions (Gulf/EC) between colder/snowier winters and warmer/less snowy winters. I would bet there is some connection and perhaps a strong one.

Building on the above post the focus is going to shift in assessing OLR anomalies. While there of course is a relationship between SSTAs and convection, I don't think its as explicit where you can say "if core anomalies are east then tropical forcing is also east".

Sell any prolonged cool or below-average. There is so much hugging of of D6-10 and D8-14 static graphics. It happened all winter long, "the D8-14 pattern looks good". You see it all across social media too...folks just throw all the eggs in the D8-14 basket.

Steady rain falling now. Had some off and on showers earlier. They just finished removing the two pine trees in the neighbors yard too not long ago. Was quite impressed how quickly it took them to do it and was fun to watch.

Had some (brief) breaks of sun throughout the day. Went on a brief walk and sun came out on my walk. Felt super warm with the sun.

I've gone back through my printout charts of SSTA evolution during EL Nino fall's and winter (OND, NDJ, and DJF). Using my strength breakdown list, I analyzed the SSTA evolution for weak, moderate, and strong events. I've categorized the evolution of each event (of similar strength) and grouped like categories. This yields the following Note: when I say "weakened" I mean anomalies weakened through fall and winter. when I say "strengthened" I mean anomalies strengthened through fall into winter. Weak EL Nino Fall ---> Winter SSTA Evolution 1. EP (Anomalies did not expand or retrograde west) 2. Late blossoming EP (late blossoming EL Nino) 3. Modoki 4. EP (retrograding and weakening anomalies) 5. EP (Anomalies did not expand or retrograde west, but weakened) 6. EP (Core anomalies were located in the western ENSO region and weakened) Moderate EL Nino Fall ------> Winter SSTA Evolution 1. EP (Anomalies retrograded and weakened) 2. EP (Anomalies did not retrograde or expand west, but weakened) 3. EP (Anomalies expanded west) 4. EP (Expanded through basin and strengthened)*** (by definition this event was a strong one, but borderline so I may remove) 5. Modoki Strong EL Nino Fall ----> Winter SSTA Evolution 1. EP (Extended through basin and weakened. Became modoki) 2. EP (Extended through basin) 3. EP (Extended through basin and weakened) 4. Modoki became EP 5. (Expanded through basin and strengthened)

Well I am an idiot. I realize why I've struggled mightily with EL Nino structure. I went back to the drawing board starting off with the basics of EL Nino and its developing via references from NOAA, research papers, etc. When dealing with EL Nino structure, it's a completely different process then La Nina. With EL Nino you're either going to have EP (canonical) EL Nino (or EP to say central based) or your modoki (warming in the central or western ENSO regions.

Yes

Well that was fun. Can’t wait to get the real stuff in like another month

Multiple CG's in the last 5 minutes or so.

HAIL!!!!! pea sized hail!!! not a ton just some spits

THUNDER!!!

All these other years with big heat this early…very active severe wise. This is going to be a summer to remummber. Once we get into late May through August…we’ll be tallying 90’s like nothing and dealing with numerous severe setups. ITS COMING

Would not be shocked to see next Thursday/Friday end up warmer on guidance as we get closer.

BDL 92

Something like that happened in June of 1995 too (don't remember the date, maybe the 23rd?) but it dropped golf ball sized hail! Pretty wild for a back door front to produce. It was a record too which I think was broken a few years back.

The PDO state and SST configuration in the Pacific SCREAMS a hot summer in the East.

It is TOASTY out. Already up to 75 at CEF but it feels warmer then that. Should be another 90 easily today. 90's can tickle me all summer long. Can't wait to we introduce high dews with this next go around.

Florida it is

It is definitely getting cool now. Only planned on watching the first period outside…here I am well into the 3rd. Just hoping no OT