weatherwiz

Some forecast Just threw all strong EL Nino's together. Yes, strong EL Nino's have a tendency to be above-average in terms of temperatures across the northern-tier of the country, but there are strong EL Nino's which were colder. Can't just throw a bunch of years into a composite and call it a forecast or outlook.

Probably not much wind inland. Just gusty. Breezier along the shoreline with some isolated power outages

Where?

There is still a lot to resolve when it comes to what we can expect. I would think there is going to be a very sharp cutoff and gradient within the region. It's just a matter of where that gradient resides. There also appear to be two viable solutions 1. An all out rain/flooding event along/south of the Pike as the NAM suggests 2. A two part event where we get one round of heavy rain associated with warm front/strong warm air advection, which diminishes rapidly as the system occludes and then a second round as the decaying circulation passes nearby. Regardless, the weekend is going to be crap...cool, breezy, cloudy, rain but it's a question of just how crappy and whether we have significant flooding concerns. East facing slopes of the southern Berkshires into the Litchfield Hills could be a secondary max area for upslope enhanced totals. But if we get fronto aligned just north of Long Island across southern Connecticut and southern Rhode Island I'm afraid flooding could be quite significant.

let's keep it that way heading into winter

seems like a nasty angle too for coastal NC potentially. Good thing it's not a significantly stronger storm.

going to be some decent winds right up along the coast for sure

TS warnings up to Delaware

agreed

yeah coastal areas are going to be on the windy side for sure Saturday and it should be pretty breezy just inland too. I wonder if there is an outside shot at some hurricane-force gusts (say 75-80) along parts of coastal SC/NC. Want to see what the GFS has but the NAM develops some 80+ knot winds at 925...most likely remaining over the open waters. If I lived right along the coast or in emergency response it's something I would definitely want to keep in the back of my mind.

Also, I wouldn't go about this as a typical tropical system. For this system, it's important to understand the dynamical forces and processes behind the development of the low pressure and strengthening of the low pressure. This is going to be a near textbook definition of dynamics at work these next few days.

I'm wondering if southern Connecticut through southern Rhode Island might get smacked pretty hard with rain and flooding. Wouldn't be surprised to see fronto setup here. We've seen some similar instances of this over the past several years.

Gotta wonder how far north the heavy rain will really get. That ridging is pretty damn strong. Also being enhanced by that longwave trough digging into the PAC NW.

Since I do trash on the snow maps I'll say it also irritates me when people just run to hodographs, supercell composite parameter, and significant tornado parameter to justify a potential tornado outbreak.

Even if the duration of the rain ends up being on the short side of the spectrum, the rainfall rates are going to be intense. Lots of rain will fall in a very short amount of time.

One thing looking at (and on all models) is the strengthening low-level jet. Pretty robust easterly flow overspreading southern New England with 850-700mb warm front progressing north within the region. There is going to be a ton of moisture being thrown in our direction. We have the high to the north so there is potential this system could become suppressed. I think we either get slammed with rain or get lucky...don't think there is an in between. Would have to check into tides but I would also think coastal flooding could be a concern as well.

That would be a boatload of rain on the NAM. I guess you can hope for occlusion to eventually shut the system down but many ingredients in place for us to get smoked.

check out the evolution of the ULJ. That's some solid venting and ulvl divergence going on. Nice phasing too with the shortwave digging southeast across Canada

That area may last about as long as Aaron Rodgers did in game 1

I like my eggs scrambled

This rain is insane

Thanks for the info here!

I don't know the specifics but I want to get brighter. Actually when I replaced my headlights a few years back I went brighter than what I had but it still really isn't enough. I don't want to get too bright because I know it can be very distracting (and blinding) for other drivers.

That sounds horrific. Would much rather a 4:30 PM sunset than a 9:00 AM sunrise.

What sucks about the dark the most is driving. I hate driving at night and in the dark, especially if its raining. Those LED street lights are pretty useless and the highways are horrific with very few stretches with actual lights.