weatherwiz

Think we could see an enhanced risk with next SPC update with SLIGHT into SNE.

Forecast 3km CAPE for I think 19z today. Want to watch how that progresses moving into SNE. Also a push of MLCAPE of 250-500 J. Going to be an active day

I wonder if that is factoring in any thunderstorms...even if so that's pretty decent stuff

That is one impressive LLJ modeled to traverse CT/RI/SE MA afternoon into the evening. The core of the LLJ max too also arrives while we still have some daylight so that will help with winds too (some better mixing). Then towards evening you get an impressive surge of CAPE...even some very weak surface based CAPE...but you get any sfc based CAPE in this environment and you're going to get winds. T'storms should have potential to produce 70 mph wind gusts. I think you'll see quite a bit of power outages tomorrow

Really no thread on this??? Looks like ingredients will align on what should amount to a fairly widespread severe weather event with damaging winds and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes from the mid-Atlantic through southern New England. Forecast models really hinting at a rather impressive surge of instability with very strong dynamics. While we will also have a temperature inversion to contend with, there should be strong non-convective wind gusts as well (30-40 mph). Scattered power outages, flash flooding, and damaging winds all in the cards for tomorrow.

Just enough 3km CAPE poking into the Cape with more than enough shear for a possible tornado. Also, check out the rapid increase in lightning just prior to the tightening couplet. Sometimes that can be a tell take sign for potential tornado genesis IMG_5278.MP4

It's just not a good look that first week for any meaningful cold. Even though the AO/NAO do head negative, it looks like that is driving by some higher height anomalies poking into the southern part of those domains which isn't really favorable for us. Even if we had higher heights into the PNA region I don't think that does much to help given the lack of cold. But yeah, after 12/5 or around that time frame the Pacific looks a bit better with teleconnection support to drive some cold into Canada...so if we can keep a theme going of higher heights into the West maybe mid-December we'll have a shot.

Twitter world is starting to go crazy about the first week of December but after what we've learned from last year there is a helluva lot more than just the pattern "looking good". When you look at the forecast H5 height anomalies I actually expected much more of a colder look at the sfc but that just doesn't seem to be there. It does look like we'll get a brief cold shot but that is behind the system . Also too many hints for cyclogenesis to be fairly far west but that is something that can certainly change.

That is a pretty crazy jet extension being modeled moving into at least the first week of December. Raging jet too

It's been a bit rough...stressed with work and my girlfriend and I broke up a few weeks ago. I was actually going to make a thread here last Thursday or Friday for Sunday but forgot. I was down in Bethel for the event and the winds were quite strong...I would estimate gusts were easily 50-60 mph.

I'm here @Damage In Tolland Are you happy

Did anyone see the new products on Cod models??? 250/500 height, speed, u anomalies 850 temp anomalies sfc temp/MSLP anoamlies

3,000+ in MA 2,000+ in CT

WOW!

Actully not impressed by this band here. I wonder if there is drier air working in

Nice big flakes again as the band finally moves through. Too bad it won't last. I was hoping it would still be snowing when I went on my Poke-walk at lunch

Won't you get cold?

Needed the temperature to be around 40 then it be you

Too bad it's moving on the quick side and the best fronto is starting to lift out.

His car will be fine Plow drivers are used to it. Drive through cities like Hartford or Bridgepoop during a real winter storm...plows will just bury the cars in.

Satellite is a beaut. Definitely some embedded convective elements going on. Can't wait for that to move into Branford.

booo it slowed down in Branford. Gotta wait for the next band to push through

Gotta say...models really handled this quite well...especially the brunt of the cold. Pretty impressive drain of colder air.

12z OKX sounding does show a bit of a MAUL around H7 and we're obviously getting strong lift through that layer.

This is pretty solid for late October. Should really continue to blossom from interior SE MA through CT. I wonder if even near the coast can surprise a bit with a little extra convergence