weatherwiz

the dual low structure is really screwing up. Just looked at H7 low and after seeing that and how it evolves and where it closes you would think CT would be in a pretty prime spot. Another big issue which has been very consistent is occlusion happening too early. Now...that doesn't mean this won't be a massive storm, but is critical when talking about historic prospective.

Pretty big pounding ORH county into NE Mass (though don't "like" the dry air involved)

Just a verbatim assessment, but the 18z NAM I think is a big caution for Connecticut, except perhaps eastern Connecticut. Doesn't seem like we get the best mid-level goodies here...looks like subsidence issues too. Not saying I believe that, but just an assessment.

I wonder how much the ongoing convection across the Southeast is going to affect 18z/0z guidance with respect to the southern stream and associated vorticity

Great info to know, thanks!

Not really sure how much this matters right now, but it's still a bit uneasy seeing the HRRR with a torched BL. Even if it was showing temps 1-2F colder...it would ease some concerns. How the sfc rebounds though obviously is tied into many factors but the difference between 32-33 and 33-34 is going to be massive in terms of outcome

Extreme is for snow load which is not good when talking about the tree damage/power outage potential. Going to be very ugly.

Latest WSSI has some extreme popping up. This is a very useful product, use it quite a bit.

That is one big concern...occlusion too quickly.

I think it's time to really turn to and focus on mesos. (Yes, I know euro is considered a meso models too)

OMFG I thought I was looking at the 12z Euro but it was preset to the 0z

Did Ray pass out at the keyboard? Would love to see the Euro H7 charts. Looks great for Connecticut, but valley would be a concern with subsidence I would presume.

Definitely some hints at subsidence. Obviously a bit early to really worry about this stuff, but I think it's good to start assessing these details. You always want to keep flags in mind.

GFS bufkit is pound city at BDL

That is beautiful. This is the type of stuff you print out and hang on your walls. I want to have an experienced painter paint this on my office desk wall at home.

Forget the snow maps...time to focus on these products

Not so sure...maybe hold steady or bring down a bit in the valley. Biggest concern now is subsidence but pinning down where that occurs...good luck

For ratios, outside of the banding they're likely going to be relatively low (probably around 7:1). Going to have to really keep in mind there is likely going to be subsidence involved. Also have to watch for pockets of dry air being ingested in, which if that happens into the DGZ is going to kill too. Then of course you have the boundary-layer issues and of course...wind. Under the heaviest banding I think ratios upwards of 13:1 to 15:1 are plausible. But this will be better assessed after bufkit is available.

bufkit does this, but obvious the output isn't on a map

I guess if there is one downfall of the NAM is it occludes pretty quickly so that may negate long-duration of the heaviest which of course would have a negative impact for the higher-end of the ceiling

I think NAM bufkit may actually come out by 11? or 11-11:30.

Now we gotta wait for the GFS...this extra hour sucks. I wonder if we'll ever start to get model data quicker someday. Also...have to wait until like 1:00 for GFS bufkit ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Hello beautiful

Slowly starting to get somewhere but still many flags. I think overall subsidence is going to be the biggest killer for some. Where the banding happens and it rips its going to be pretty epic. The best case scenario is a band that pivots across the entire region or if dual banding sets up they conjoin.

I guess if anything, it's nice not seeing the HRRR chasing convection...even if it's the extended range of the HRRR.