weatherwiz

Looks like the next bust is tomorrow. Forgot about that bust potential. Week flew by

Based on how the NWS and SPC define severe...yes there was. Why do people try and compare thunderstorms here to out West lol. Going to start applying that philosophy to our snow events. Sure our severe events are laughable to what happens out West during the big events...but so are our snow events compared to what other areas of the country get.

There is a growing signal for another round of big heat to push into the region moving through the first week of August. GEFS advertising am extensive ridge across the heart of the country with the 588dm height pushed well into the northern Plains and even moreso the 591dm contour...this is rather impressive. GEFS also showing some big time warmth in the 850mb layer with high anomalies and potential for 850's well over 20C More importantly, given the subtle trough signal over our region, this implies we would be dealing with a westerly to northwesterly flow aloft in the mid-levels...maybe we can get some EML action in here Anyways, as Tip had pointed out several times in the July thread, teleconnections are SCREAMING for a surge of high heat into the region and hopefully with some dews, dews, dews (and severe chances)

ahh got it, thanks! I didn't even see the view details

WTF...there's no thunderstorms going on in the Northeast. Unless does this mean that flights destined to these airports are being delayed from airports being impacted by thunderstorms?

That's another good point regarding the pre-frontal trough which obviously was the source for the wind shift. Perhaps all that was described above could be attributed to the pre-frontal trough and it's timing. But you're right...this feature is very common with W-E cold fronts here and more times than not it is the pre-frontal trough which is the driver for the development of convection as opposed to the actual cold front. Days in which instability is rather robust you may see some additional development with the fropa but it's very isolated...sort of like what occurred yesterday. Regarding the lapse rates/height falls are those really more important when assessing the potential for severe weather on a widespread level as opposed to just aerial coverage of thunderstorms...well at least lapse rates, height falls do have a strong(er) correlation to aerial coverage. But I think this all makes sense now!

I'll admit, I actually did not look at any forecast soundings for this setup which I have no clue why I would not. I got a bit too carried away with just assessing instability, shear, and seeing a forcing mechanism approaching during prime heating. Based on those factors I went a bit overboard. When I saw a tweet last night (actually two) which mentioned drying in the mid-levels and one tweet showed a sounding it hit me. This is why we were seeing dews mix out a bit...due to the deep mixing which was occurring as we got stronger heating and favorable llvl flow for better mixing, drier air in the mid-levels was seeping into the llvls and down to the surface. Back to the discussion on the height falls, I don't think the lack of stuff was due to neutral or not really falling heights. Certainly falling heights can enhance the potential for more widespread activity and subsequent severe weather potential but IMO, that tends to be a bigger factor when assessing for widespread severe weather potential, just necessarily widespread convection (unless there are an overwhelming number of unfavorable ingredients). Looking back, the dry air advection into the mid-levels and seeping into the lower-levels would make the perfect sense as to convection did not evolve or materialize and this is what the mesos must have been picking up upon. Where convection was able to form there was extra enhancement. One of those areas was farther north where the steepest mid-level lapse rates were present as Brian showed. The second area was again the northern NJ onto Long Island where there was probably enhanced convergence. I also don't buy the idea that the convection there robbed us of any potential. I also can't see the morning clouds/precip having had played much of a role either given the fact that we recovered quite well. Temperatures rebounded and met what guidance suggested and instability was plenty. But looking back at it also...given how well we cleared and how quickly we got strong heating...that should have been a clear cut indicator how much drying was really occurring aloft. This is why it's imperative to fully assess everything and all factors. All these charts like UD helicity swaths, supercell composite parameter, significant tornado parameter, and the hazard type on the SHARPPy soundings are cute and all, but just like the stupid, ridiculous horseshit model snowfall maps they are leading to bad and lazy forecasting and I got sucked into that hole yesterday.

Well the same logic would apply with that. With convective events and convective setups you're generally not going to get a widespread much needed rain. On a magnitude of scale, convection is just too small. You're always going to have a case where some towns get hit while others don't (now some situations more will get hit than not) but you can't rely on convection to provide a widespread much needed rain. This is why we rely quite a bit on getting at least seasonal snowfall totals and at least a few spring nor'easters to build up water tables for the summer and then for fall nor'easters to replenish what is lost during the summer. What we have lacked out a bit on the past few years is widespread synoptic rains which tend to be associated with warms fronts.

I think the biggest challenge overall is how these events are perceived. There seems to be a mindset that every single setup has to result in a widespread outbreak or all parameters need to be perfect. Was yesterday really a bust? I mean there were some severe weather reports but was it a bust? This answer is tied into how an individual is perceiving the potential and what they're expecting. When we look at and discuss parameters whether it be shear, CAPE, lift, lapse rates, height falls, forcing, etc. there is a tendency to only look for what is typically found with high end events. High end events don't happen often and there is a reason for that. Even other areas of the country where sure they have a higher tendency for higher end events, but they still don't happen with a high frequency. At the end of the day, no setup is ever going to have perfect parameters, not every setup is going to produce as a high end event, but does that mean every single event that doesn't mean these criteria is a bust? I mean when it comes to convective forecasting how can an event be a bust anyways?

In New Britain getting my severe downpour

The next bust. Only season that doesn’t bust around here is spring. Cold, windy, and crap.

Maybe I need my eyes re-checked

Can severe rains be a thing and count as severe?

Ahhh just saw a tweet…mid level dry air may be the culprit here…

Mesos did pick up on something. Kind of want to dig into all the equations that are used within them. I know height falls weren’t great but I didn’t think there were terrible. At least they weren’t rising which is what we had a week ago or whatever. How often do we do height falls well anyways? I mean we should have still had at least some severe or even storms and pretty much nil. I mean they had decent storms in NJ/LI and height falls were probably worse or just the same.

More therapeutic

The HRRR backed off a lot which I guess should have been a sign but it was also a bit inconsistent from run-to-run from last night into this morning. The 3km seemed to be pretty aggressive (which usually never is and I thought that may have been a sign). this isn’t the first time though we have seen a setup very similar to this where nothing popped. Maybe the forcing really is weak? Is there some sort of cap that’s just not breaking?

Our government sucks. Them and their stupid cutbacks so they can play golf on nicer courses. Days like today the NWS should be able to have ample resources to do additional balloon launches and even at special spots. Like 18z could have been launched at ALB, OKX, BDL, and a few other spots so we can get an actual diagnostic sense of the atmosphere. There’s something preventing stuff from popping and it’s not freaking morning cloud cover. We recovered

This is bullshit. We should just never get another Convective threat again b/c this is pure, 100%, straight up bullshit. You mean to tell me we can’t get crap to form outside of some stupid lillydaddy cell. What the hell else do we need, instability is plenty. I don’t give a crap that it was cloudy at 10:00 AM…it’s not fooking 10:00 AM anymore. It was 3:00 and the sun came out…enough to tan naked and temps soared well into the 80’s, dewpoints are high, shear is damn high, perfect timing of the front, height falls, slight cooling along AND WE STILL CANT GET CRAP TO FORM. It’s fooking stupid

Was wondering if maybe convergence was lacking but looks like quite a bit of moisture convergence across SNE.

Does look like some convection is trying to fill in. Anything that does form though is likely going to become severe quickly.

Nice mid level meso on that storm near Clinton

Only thing I can think of is if there is any sort of subsidence going on. Maybe we’re between shortwaves? On mobile so water vapor imagery a pain

I’d be stunned if we don’t see additional development as the front gets a bit closer. The HRRR isn’t showing much but I just don’t buy it. 18z 3km NAM backed off a bit but still is a bit more than the HRRR. Given the degree of CAPE/shear I’d be shocked.

I think there is still some CIN in place which may explain the lack of additional development. would think though we should start seeing stuff pop quickly off to the West over the next 60-minutes. If that doesn't happen then it probably won't.