weatherwiz

Maybe you've come across this, but I posted this to Ray in his ENSO thread. This is a great study and analysis on PDO state/trends and the strong correlation to forecasting prolonged heat episodes across the U.S. (in particular the SW and the East). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00237-7#Fig1 I find this to be one of the better studies/papers I've come across. Sometimes they can get way too involved in all the heavy math, but the analysis and explanations of everything is top notch.

I get what you're saying...but I think you took what I meant to be a bit more complex I basically just meant nicer/constantly warm times are ahead (whether that be in May or June).

I like to view these anomalies as "signs of things to come". It's what we can look forward too in the near-ish future.

Actually Monday we may be able to squeak out a warmer day, especially east of 84 (with the front slowing down significantly). Tuesday could be quite cool and perhaps Wednesday too.

First half of the week will be on the cooler side (especially compared to what's coming up). Lower 50's and 40's in the typical colder spots

Stupid POS timing of the front Sunday. Guess the best potential for any strong thunderstorms will be back across PA/NY (as always). 60-70+ knots of bulk shear with maybe 500-1000 J o MLCAPE...not too bad. Maybe a cluster or two of some wind damage.

It is a bit early to install now though...especially considering the beginning of next week looks ugly.

There is a difference between installing and actually using.

Then we freeze our fannies off early next week and have to deal with snow showers

Looks like some strong thunderstorms possible Sunday. Timing of course kinda sucks though but that's some pretty impressive dynamics with modest CAPE.

Hahaha I just flipped it over and stomped on it hahaha

You can see from the video it’s supposed to be caves upwards ughhh

Ughhh would anyone know why this is caved down instead of up? Only thing I can think of is the two larger poles are below the shorter one but the video shows them below the shorter one

Bridgeport No. You're better off going into New Haven and going to Sally's or Pepes.

Issuing a CAPE watch for next weekend. This mean combination of temperatures, dewpoints, and/or steep mid-level lapse rates may yield enough CAPE ahead of an approaching cold front to yield the risk for thunderstorms.

There is quite a bit of debate regarding the recent PDO behavior. Some believed that the PDO did flip to a positive regime there in the mid 2010's, however, I think that was related to ENSO state then a PDO shift. But of course this can't be said with certainty. Cool phases tend to dominate for longer periods then warm phases so was it an abrupt flip to warm then cool or has ENSO state been a driving factor?

Oh man...put this year's blocking onto next year and I would think we totally cash in. We'll see how the PDO evolves over the summer, naturally it should become less hostile with emerging ENSO, but we'll see.

I'll have to check the main thread but reading your snippets here we essentially have the same thinking. I was beginning to further explore the PDO yesterday and was doing some reading on it. It was the first time in probably a decade I had read up on the PDO and the amount of research in that time on it has been pretty impressive. I cam across this paper which was phenomenal. It focuses more on PDO/summer temperature lead-time, but it has great information in there. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00237-7#Fig1

One big key to watch moving into and through the summer will be the PDO and whether the developing EL Nino has an impact on the PDO. The PDO is currently in a very negative state (which likely has been enhanced by the 3-year Nina), but we've also been in a dominant cool phase since 1999 (though there was a brief period where we flipped positive...ENSO influenced). Anyways, it is very feasible to have an EL Nino state coincident with a -PDO: 1911-1912 1914-1915 1919-1920 1923-1924 1951-1952 1953-1954 1968-1969 1972-1973 2004-2005 2006-2007 2018-2019 Also @40/70 Benchmark where did you get this graphic? Was going back and re-reading your winter outlook. This is sick

I don't believe this...it was freezing going on the 2.75 minute walk to Dunkin...my hands were cold so I got a hot coffee...I come out and it was like 5F warmer out. I could have gotten an ice'd coffee ughhh

I want to go for a walk and get an ice'd coffee, but the temperatures won't budge. DAMN YOU LOW CLOUDS

I agree with this. I wouldn't feel comfortable forecasting temps outside of 3-4 days across our region during the spring time. First off MOS/NBM is total trash during the season and there are so many different influences which can impact temperatures (both positively and negatively). H5 could look amazing for warmth in the extended but the sfc could be dealing a different set of cards. Never underestimate backdoor potential or cloud debris.

We'll see what we can get over the next few hours. Certainly much tougher to clear out llvl crap now then it would be in another month or 6 weeks, but won't take much mixing to get temps to launch quickly

There could be a few potent systems clipping the PAC NW over the next few weeks.

Looks relatively "boring" across the country for the next few weeks. Maybe a decent snow event for parts of the northern Inter-mountain West late next week. Hopefully the pattern is just napping and will wake up just in time for May