weatherwiz

Window is nearly closed though and any potential is likely going to be interior and elevations at this point. not a good sign seeing a poleward displaced jet extension from Asia across the north Pacific with wave breaking featuring trough after trough digging into the West with a pretty long wave length...going to need huge NAO/AO support to fit flexing ridge in the East...I mean we've had a string of -NAO in spring's the past few years and that looks to continue. But outside of high terrain and far interior...we probably done with anything meaningful in terms of accumulations.

@40/70 Benchmark Final map released

What sucks is severe season will probably be crap too

I'd love to head south just for warmer weather at this point I'll always take a good March snow event, but I'm ready for at least some 60's and 70's right now. Ton of yard clean-up to do I want to get started on

Fun but exhausting storm to track. Really sucks for much of Connecticut, especially the Valley. Now it's onto severe weather season

Never got to get out and officially measure before everything shut off, but when I went out a few hours ago there was close to 3.5'' and I figure maybe lost 1/2'' (maybe a bit more) with melting. No new thus far.

yes, Springfield

Really starting to pick up here now with better snow growth and heavier rates. Some decent gusts at times too. Could be enough to bring down some weakened limbs if this keeps up

This is just my opinion But yes, they are really that bad. We'll use the two different methods, 10:1 and Kuchera. The Kuchera method was developed to help provide a more "accurate: assessment of ratios after all, we all know ratios can vary significantly. But (and as far as I know...this is where I could be wrong, hence the "this is just my opinion) all these products do is take a ratio and multiply it by QPF. Ultimately, snowfall production and accumulation are extremely complex and involve much more then just ratio and QPF. First off, snowfall ratios in themselves are extremely complex. They can change very rapidly during the evolution of the storm and can drastically within minutes. Degree of lift, abundance of moisture/ice crystals within the snow growth zone, thermal profile, moisture, CAA/WAA, evolution of the dynamics are all extremely critical in snowfall ratio and accumulation. Snow maps do provide value in they can help to quickly identify the gradient zones and where the cutoff can be expected and help identify local maxes and mins (the later though could easily be found by assessing numerous variable).

Yeah that makes sense. There is probably some subsidence going on as well, I think Scott mentioned this a few hours ago (or someone did)

Winds starting to pick up here. Wish the snow would...growth is awful but the goods still to the west.

IMO, the snowfall maps have been a detriment to the field. These things get tossed around left and right and literally all they do is create unrealistic expectations and create hype for the public. There is nothing worse then seeing 384-HR snow maps being thrown around all over social media or snow maps for a "D10 threat". There is absolutely ZERO reason. When an event happens the event is then measured solely on how the f****** snow maps "performed". WHO GIVES A SHIT HOW THE HELL THEY PERFORMED. Speaking of QPF though, I think models have come along way with QPF forecasting. But I think mesos have really helped with this.

Would be nice to see this band pivot east a bit soon. I guess it's a good thing you can still see echos feeding into the band so moisture influx is still strong

It's embarrassing the database with seasonal (and subsequent monthly snow totals) is. IDK where to go anymore to find this stuff. Seems any source that exists all has different numbers.

Ahhh thanks! Speaking of that, I should go back and re-read those papers and prepare for next winter. I'll also use Iowa state sometimes for bufkit (as a backup) but this site is so much friendlier. Only issue is if it's down...well no bufkit hmmm..that's a good question, I wonder if Max T in profile is Kucheria, but I don't believe it is.

I believe the only difference the two is just the Cobb 11 is an updated version to Cobb 5. I forget off hand what the difference is, the Cobb 11 uses something slightly different. Cobb method is probably the best method out there, unlike the Kuchera or the 10:1 maps, the method takes into account many different variable, including DGZ and lift. Max T in profile can be good, but misleading. For bufkit I download all my profiles from http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_NAM_12.html I'll have a list saved in bufget so you can just grab the data with one click of the button. If you change the run time to latest, you'll get the most recent data

BDL/CEF down to 33 so that's good at least. Snow coming down steady here, but the growth is meh. If that improves (which it should) we should accumulate quickly here. Then we'll see how much until the bands either moves out or weakens

Certainly something to watch. Nothing overly impressive but maybe enough to where some areas could get in the additional 3-5'' farther east.

This morning was certainly a surprise. I mean I was originally thinking (Saturday) like 8+ inches here then kind of lowered hope once the screwzone signal became more apparent. And then it got to a point to where I had zero clue what to expect...I literally went to bed last night expecting perhaps nothing. But I woke up and was very happy.

I've thought about that...that could really help eastern areas. I know some seemed bummed b/c the storm didn't "bomb" out as shown, but that's probably a good thing...delay the occlusion and keep the moisture inflow alive, even if it's on life support.

Yeah when using cobb method on bufkit, majority of the ratios were within the 6-7:1 range. This is exactly why the snow maps are garbage. I get they're useful in they can really help pin down where the gradients will be and max/min's. Maybe keep the maps but remove legends and values hahaha.

ughhh I'm in a tiny sucker hole...it's like filling in all around me. It's like I'm getting an atmospheric swirly.

Thanks! Liking the filling in,

Progress https://www.weathertap.com/radar/local?site=KBOX&type=N0R&attr=ANI nevermind don't know how to embed

Ah good, that's what I was leaning with too but was a little nervous looking at the RAP and was wondering why precip didn't appear as impressive given the mlvls but forgot I was looking at 1hr QPF