weatherwiz

3km (as usual) is much less mundane but does have something rolling through. I'm starting to become more inclined to believing that the 3km is very good. IT usually is much less impressive which often verifies and when it does show something good...definitely keep a watch.

It certainly has had a tough go of it this summer and not just in our region. But convection is very difficult to model really, especially when you get the setups which had occurred in the Great Plains/Tennessee Valley/Southeast where you know MCSs will develop, but pinpointing exactly where/what time initial development will occur several-plus hours out is highly difficult. Anyways. we've been outside the HRRR's range but it has been pretty consistent thus far - again, doesn't mean too much because we had seen that before, but if this remains consistent with the 0z run and subsequent runs overnight...that would be a very positive sign. Need to keep in mind too that we do not need much solar heating in this type of setup.

3km NAM not as violent as the HRRR tomorrow but not bad looking.

If that trough was coming through during peak heating tomorrow would be a pretty big day

They have certainly been pretty awful as of late minus some coops here and there. But tomorrow morning should have some rain and storms moving through.

HRRR with a violent morning

Being teased and tickled at the same time

Late Friday morning/early afternoon should be pretty interesting. Won't need a ton of heating in this setup.

summer back broke we depressed

Well we now have Hilary. Completely bypassed TD category

Kind of feels like Christmas Day

sfc low development low and tracks were unfavorable for pushing WF north. Friday would be more favorable (unless model shift southeast with sfc low).

Instability will virtually be a product of 1) WF placement 2) Frontal timing 3) Cloud cover - although we'll likely have extensive cloud cover, but south of the warm front rich theta-e air will compensate quite a bit. I'd also watch for lapse rates to be a bit steeper than modeled, however, extensive clouds and precip. may yield enough latent heat to keep them from steepening.

I am going to chug my cocoa and close my eyes and my body temp will rise so fast I can pretend it's from the hot, high-angled sun beaming down on me.

I'm caving and making hot cocoa

GFS with a nice PRE into the Southwest this weekend

Timing is a big question as is warm front progression, however, that is a fairly robust trough digging in with significant shortwave forcing. Dynamics are quite robust for this time of year with 50+ knots of bulk shear. If that warm front is able to penetrate inland (which based on SLP track/development I would think it should) and we get into the richer theta-e air there would be some severe potential.

I have this book that's about historical Connecticut tornadoes (or maybe it's weather). I got it like 3-4 years ago and ever read the whole thing...something about the way it was written wasn't sitting right with me. Anyways, this was talked about. Apparently it was considered a miracle only 2 fatalities occurred during the New Britain to Coventry tornado. I think it mentioned the track deviated some but it was extremely close to a largely populated area and with the time of day the death toll could have easily been in the hundreds.

NAM is interesting for Friday

As Taylor Swift says, our midnights will becoming our afternoons

This is turning into a hot cocoa kind of day.

I got a hot coffee from Dunkin this morning instead of an ice'd coffee. Summer is broken

I got stung by several of those suckers in high school. The pain was brutal. First sting felt like a stick went through my arm.

I wonder if there will be two max areas of rainfall totals. One very close to the sfc warm front/SLP track and perhaps a second farther inland closer to the H7 warm front? Based on where the NAM/GFS are developing and tracking the sfc low it seems very hard pressed to believe the sfc warm front will ever make it to the coast, but the outer Cape I think would have the best shot.

Pretty big difference between 3km and 12km. Right along and just north of the warm front is going to get smoked with rain. That may end up being over the Sound or on Long Island through extreme southern Rhode Island and outer Cape, but there is going to be a swath of like 3-5'' of rain.