weatherwiz

Very true.

IDK...even looking back at the 18z NAMs I think the idea makes sense. The secondary is awfully far south and I guess it's a question of how far north the strongest fronto can get. also, it seems like the northern edge of the precip shield gets chewed away pretty quickly. Ton of dry air up at 500 and have to wonder if that is quickly seeping downward. I'm thinking like 5-8'' for SW CT and along the shoreline to about the River with 3-5'' from northern Litchfield county elsewhere. I'll post map in a bit to illustrate.

I'm starting to think the jackpot zone in this will be across southern Connecticut. It kind of makes sense based on where guidance is developing/tracking the secondary low. You can see the precip shield starting to fall apart pretty quickly towards eastern CT. Best lift traverses southwest/coastal Connecticut and thermal profile supports all snow.

hmm this actually is a bit more complicated. Looking at 0z HRRR then going back to the 18z guidance, there could be a maximum from northern NJ across southeast NY and...the the western shoreline of Connecticut and maybe as much as 6-10''. Totals could then drop off quickly say eastern Connecticut (east of the River) so something more along the line of 3-6''

0z HRRR looks like pound city from northern NJ into western (southwestern) CT

One thing I think that will happen which is kind of impossible to incorporate into forecast maps is there will likely be some embedded subsidence zones. SREF plumes and bufkit (12z) though was solid 5-8'' statewide and 3-5'' along the shoreline.

This is pretty sweet looking http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/t18z/nam.ne.frontb34.png

Not sure what's been going on with PSU but no 18z bufkit data again which kind of blows. My original forecast yesterday was statewide 3-6'' for Connecticut but starting to think that 5-7'' is going to be very common. Pretty impressed with the list which traverses the state during the overnight. Ratios looked very good too which is not a surprise given the lift.

First thoughts for Connecticut. Still a bit to resolve

It's not the models, it's just reflective of the pattern.

Probably much better...except no lift

the later this is about a good time frame to start.

Well this is encouraging to see. Small window of getting some intense lifting into the DGZ which will be huge given how high it is. You can also see the snow ratio jump during this window as well. This would be a solid 1-2'' per hour rates verbatim. This is BDL

It may in the sense that the overall profile is colder with latitude. But here is 700mb temps for 9z Tuesday which is within the window of the heavier rates. We certainly can get great snow growth with intense llvl lift and llvl cold but I'm not sure it's cold enough to offset this "warmth" and very high DGZ. I think we would really struggle to generate good dendrites. I could see very tiny flakes which even resemble sleet.

It seems pretty close. 925/850 are certainly cold enough for snow but the surface could be a question. I guess we'll have to see how much temperatures climb through the day Monday. With thick cloud cover coming in quickly we may not drop much during the evening and until we get a more northeasterly component to the wind. Above 925/850 though seems to raise some big questions. Verbatim the GFS is only around -2C to -3C at 700 and -17C to -19C. With the majority of the lift well below this I can see horrific snow growth (even a solid mixture of sleet). Will wait for 12z GFS bufkit, but my guess is we would be looking at snow ratios around 7:1 or so.

ughh I was pretty excited with some features of the GFS looking better...but I seriously think we would struggle to really accumulate.

Also something to keep in mind is, looking through some soundings really quickly, it seems like the DGZ is going to be relatively high, well above the greatest lift. This would have a substantial impact on snow growth and ratios.

It appears as if it takes a bit longer for the shortwave to totally get sheared apart on this run. But this is some beast WAA

HOly shit...I just saw a good sized limb break off the pine tree and come down

This is going to be the most intriguing aspect in terms of forecasting potential snowfall totals. There is going to be an extremely tight temperature gradient within a short-distance. If that does verify, there is going to be a very narrow intense banding of enhanced fronto in the 850-700 layer. Where that occurs and if it does is where the strip of highest totals will be. One thing to watch too is east slopes of the Berks who could destroy in this (as usual)

Getting super excited now, just scared of being let down. I'll even take 3-4''. In this winter that would make me happy.

I would like to winter of winter in two ways 1) Seasonal snowfall accumulation. 2) How many accumulating snowfall events (with a subset of events greater than specific amounts). But then it's also really too each their own. Someone who got say 50'' (which is about their average) but 35'' came from two storms may call it a solid winter while someone who got 50'' (about their average) but it was spread out between about 7-8 storms is a solid winter.

Anyone else noticing birds acting crazy? Crows are going wild...a giant swarm of them and they all screaming.

My timeline must be way off. This is why recollection from memory alone can be a terrible idea.

Ahhh yes, that's the one I was thinking of.