weatherwiz

The best bet for forecasting temperatures on days like today is using Bufkit and tossing the NAM. With Bufkit you can play around with different mixing heights which is fun to do. Miss doing that with the weather challenge

Cold and rainy and had some sleet. Great day to watch the Bruins and Lightning beat each other up

Just saw a bobcat on the backyard

Some of those EPS members, combined with the OP's evolution at 500 is enough to keep interest in the game

sweet! If I get some time in the upcoming days I want to do an average vs. average with outliers removed. Will be fun to see the difference. The differences though aren't really going to be drastic.

To get the true average outlier seasons should be removed from the calculation of the mean. What really sucks is I have no clue where to go anymore for historical snowfall records. The data blank from the mid 90's to early 2000's sucks and that threadex or whatever page I think that has it had completely different numbers for several stations that I had written down that the NWS had listed like 10-years ago. I wanted to compare the long-term average at all stations and then do a calculation with outliers removed and just curious to see what the difference comes out to be. BUT THE RECORD KEEPING IS ABSOLUTE TOTAL DOG SHIT

This is probably the type of setup we need to actually get something

We'll find out next week

GFS with a sneaky event Monday night

I agree with this 100%

If snow maps didn't exist 99.999999999% of storms in the D6-10 day range would get little, if any, attention.

Well started making some "headway" with EL Nino composites. Below is a list of EL Nino winters I generated using Eric Webb's Ensemble ONI and the CPC's ONI. I have yet to break down these events into strength b/c I'm not really sure what criteria to use. Majority of EL Nino events peak before the official winter season. Not sure if I want to do peak EL Nino strength or do the strength during the OND or DJF period. Also it's very challenging to do a structure breakdown...from my perspective anyways, the majority of EL Nino events look east-based, but that is using SSTA's. Maybe OLR would be a better proxy

Right, you never want to just take one model and run with it. Understanding which model may be performing the best in a given pattern regime can help provide some great guidance too. But I think we've become so fixated on threats in the D6-10 and beyond range these last several years that expectations have just been cut to shreds and if some D8 "threat" doesn't verify all of a sudden a model or models are trash.

Just b/c a model goes from "storm to no storm" and vice-versa doesn't mean a model sucks. This is one reason why I think there are just too many products available to assess. In the medium range the only products that hold any weight whatsoever are mid/upper-level. Forget what the snow maps show, forget what the QPF maps show, and forget what the SLP tracks are. All those products...are useless and pointless in the medium range. You have to understand why a model is wavering back-and-forth. In the case of this potential, there are several key pieces at hand 1) PV and associated confluence 2) Shortwave energy within the north stream You can even expand this list and focus how the energy moving into the PAC NW is influencing the evolution of the pattern downstream It is unrealistic to expect a model to be consistent or sniff these features and their exactly evolution nearly perfect in that range. There is too much chaos involved. That will never, ever, ever happen. When looking into the medium range, all you want to see is how your key features are being played out by each model while using the current pattern regime to hopefully narrow down a list of potential solutions/outcomes.

It's chilly 51 with no sun. Went for a walk and I got cold

Only Canadian I'm concerned about is the Montreal Canadiens tonight

This wouldn't really be effective with the general public, but I think it would be beneficial to start looking at above-below average temperatures in terms of standard deviation as opposed to just the boring ole departure. Hell, I think it would be great to be able to do something based on a historical basis. For example, say the average high temperature at BDL is 52. It would be interesting to see each high temperatures for each March 23 in the database. Judging a 60-65F reading against that average may seem quite impressive, however, if the data is skewed towards that range is it as impressive as it really seems? also, outliers should be removed from the calculations (I wonder if they are or not).

Not sure why I have any semblance of excitement, but I guess if there is potential may as well root for it. But with baseball around the corner and playoff hockey/basketball just bring on the 60's and 70's. Close the book on winter...it's like a final chapter that just won't end.

Massive differences with the handling of the PV and associated confluence. Until there is any idea on what this structure and evolution will be models/ensembles are utterly useless in terms of run-to-run solutions in terms of SLP and crap. They aren't going to tell us what we can't already decipher and that is a evolution like the Euro is higher storm potential and evolution like GFS is nada. Need to get consistency and clearer picture of the PV/confluence.

wtf

Enough to get anyone's attention

I can't wait for mid-April when the GFS starts peeking into May

It’s almost getting easier to get high-end severe events here then major accumulating snow events

Maybe some thundersnow for northern peeps Saturday night

There really is no reason to believe this spring won't act like the past several have. Sure we'll have our nice days, but they won't be consistent. More times then not it will be chilly and you can bet at least NNE will see accumulating snow chances through April. We'll probably flip the switch to summer late June.