weatherwiz

Or how about some Euro H5 evolutions to see what the hell is going on.

Here is 6z bufkit at BDL. Ratios aren't bad under the band (about what I was thinking under the band).

About to look at that now! Getting it loaded up

Outside of the immediate shoreline and within the valley, much of CT should do very well. What’s going to kill the valley is just the torched BL. Kinda sucks with the warm start this AM

Given the rate of deepening it does seem plausible. Ideally, you’d like to see the rapid deepening happen as the storm is to our south and moving over the benchmark. This way you’re maximizing you’re mid-level support and fronto over the region. in this case, the process happens a bit later then you’d like, but because the way the storm is evolving it also kind of helps us because it’s helping to prevent a total torch of the llvls. But when storms bomb out too quickly they become too wrapped up too quickly and you wrap the colder air into the center and cut off warm/moist inflow.

Oh absolutely. I would not rule out CCB traversing much of CT. He’ll it could even take it’s sweet time going across the state if that upper level evolution verifies.

If we can get a slower occlusion I think we’ll get crushed.

Yeah you really can’t ask for too much better in that regard. Seeing these makes me feel better, but there are enough other flags which still hold some weight. But I would at least think if we see this trend with tomorrows guidance models will be a few ticks colder at the sfc

That H5 evolution on the GFs is a beaut

system not deepen so rapidly. It winds up very quickly so you're wrapping the cold air all the way around into the core and essentially cutting off warm/moist inflow. But for CT I would like to see the 700 low closing off south of LI and moving NE...it closes off near the Cape. South of /LI and tracking NE would get the band over us.

But if the NAM/3k didn't occlude so fast I think much of CT would be destroyed given mid-levels but the occlusion happens so quickly the CCB kinda of fizzles before the best goodies can get overhead

At least for the valley, I think it's just becoming too apparent we aren't going to overcome the torched BL. Even some of the more dynamical outputs we really struggle. But it's so freaking close. I guess it's not totally impossible for a tick 1-2F down tomorrow but idk

It occludes so quickly the warm/moist inflow is cut-off. This is something you'll end up seeing I think given the consistency with this aspect so I don't think this storm is going to be as prolonged as some anticipate

That is some serious dynamic cooling

Let's say this is more like 33F at the sfc...there is going to be serious power issues and tree damage

It's definitely a better look but holy crap is that warm. That's definitely a flag, but it would probably be more concerning if we see these BL temps continue into tomorrow's guidance.

The convection the models are chasing doesn't appear to be all that impressive. Here's a look at it from the HRRR but even on the other guidance it doesn't appear to be a well organized area of convection. It's almost like the models are just riding one massive supercell and going bonkers.

Pretty soon the next ten day potential will be a severe thread

Thanks... yes, it is embarrassing my concept and grasp of topography and how to incorporate that exactly on a map

Obviously never witnessed in person, but the videos that come out of there are insane. They'll close long stretches of highways in that stuff b/c it's way too dangerous.

Spent the past few hours typing away at the blog. Updated forecast. these are the changes from my map yesterday Added a 20-30'' contour within the Berkshires where orographic enhancement combined with the greatest ratios will occur. 18-24'' contour was reduced to 16-20''. 12-18'' contour was adjusted to 12-16'' and also pushed farther east through Litchfield County, CT, far northwestern New Haven County, CT, and far western Hartford County, CT to account for the higher elevation and higher totals. 6-12'' contour was adjusted to 8-12''. 3-6'' contour was adjusted to 4-8'' and this contour brought higher into the Connecticut Valley to reflect subsidence concerns. 2-4'' contour for the Connecticut shoreline with a 1-3'' contour added in eastern Massachusetts.

I still love the blizzard warnings in the Dakotas for 2-3'' of snow with 60 mph winds...now that's a blizzard haha (ground blizzard anyways)

This may go into what Oceanst was saying earlier, but I think any low with convection is going to be weak and the shortwave energy is overdone...so a scenario of a capture and better blossoming of the storm as a whole. WE'RE GETTING BURRIED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111

I'm still going to be on the bullish side. Working on an updated forecast but don't think I'll make drastic changes. I may lower totals a bit though for each zone (so 18-24'' down to 16-20'' and 12-18'' down to 10-16'' etc). I'll take the luck with the mid-levels...the mid-levels are hard to ignore. I know we've been screwed before where we had great mid-levels and got screwed, but more times then not, this will supersede. Regarding the chasing of convection, I feel confident in saying that idea is not going to happen. The degree of convection doesn't appear to be that widespread or intense.

GFS is major dryslot issues in CT with that H7 track/evolution initially but I would think CT still gets hit with the CBB as it develops. Ughhhh this is going to be so close