weatherwiz

Mesoscale Discussion 1511 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Areas affected...portions of northern VA...MD...DE...eastern PA...NJ...southern NY into western MA/CT Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473... Valid 182032Z - 182200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging gusts will remain the main hazard across severe thunderstorm watch 473. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms continue along the I-95 corridor this afternoon from near Washington D.C. to the NYC vicinity. Some of these storms have produced near-severe measured wind gusts as well as sporadic wind damage. This activity will continue to pose a threat for damaging gusts the next few hours. Occasional weak rotation has been noted at times as well, especially with storms further north across NJ/NY where low-level shear remains stronger compared to further south. Some modest airmass recovery has been noted to the north of WW 473 toward Albany, NY. Cloud breaks have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 70s and MLCAPE values around 500-750 J/kg are noted. Visible satellite imagery indicates some agitated CU beneath broken upper level clouds. As large-scale ascent continues to increase and a prefrontal trough shifts eastward through late afternoon/early evening, additional strong to severe convection may develop from eastern PA into NJ and southern NY. If additional convection develops and becomes organized further north, a watch expansion may be needed across parts of the Albany CWA. ..Leitman.. 07/18/2022

It's the brightest it's been all day. Maybe some late PM sun to give a boost. It's like David Ortiz coming to bat in the bottom of the 9th with the bases loaded, down 3

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

This thing is screwing everything up

Actually some of these signatures appear more divergent rather than rotation

Flooding may be the biggest risk in southeast NY into Fairfield County...

Yeah I don't think it's really possible to get sufficient clearing in these type of setups. The only way really is when there is an advecting EML offering a stout cap and sufficient drying aloft. Agreed...conditions are still favorable for severe. This isn't going to be a widespread severe event and is a setup that typically produces widespread severe. It's all usually about whether one or two cells can maximize everything that atmosphere has to offer.

Friend down in NJ said it was wild...just loud cracks one after another

ahhh...no the Storm Prediction Center is responsible for issuing the watches. The local offices take care of warnings. Local offices though do get input as to what type of watch (severe vs. tornado).

We usually see some watches of that size each summer. Even sometimes see them stretch as far north as Maine, however, I think it's more typical to see separate watches as opposed to one giant watch box.

Clouds and the developing area of rain really killing things...then we have that cluster that developed in northwest New Jersey which will be moving into western Connecticut within a few hours. It's a nice looking cluster with tons of lightning) but it's probably at it's maximum intensity. Maybe some localized influences can work to tighten any rotation but the clouds/precip are yielding really crappy low-level lapse rates. Steeper low-level lapse rates would have gone a long way in additional parcel acceleration and yielded better (not necessarily in terms of numbers) low-level CAPE...better in the sense of it could be utilized more efficiently to assist with tightening couplets.

Everything has some broad rotation but just lacking sufficient instability to strengthen anything.

Severe watch coming soon...unless local offices argue for a TOR Mesoscale Discussion 1508 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Areas affected...parts of far northern VA...MD...eastern PA...northern DE...NJ...southern NY...western MA and CT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181618Z - 181815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southwest New England. The severe threat is expected to increase over the next couple of hours, and a watch will likely be needed for portions of the region. DISCUSSION...Areas of clearing from northern VA into eastern PA/NJ have allowed temperatures to warm into the 80s at midday. This has allowed weak to moderate destabilization to occur amid 70s surface dewpoints. Further north into the Hudson Valley and southwestern New England, thicker cloud cover and showers are keeping temperatures in the low/mid 70s and limiting stronger destabilization. However, some clearing across these areas through the afternoon should allow for modest heating and at least weak destabilization later today. Latest visible satellite indicates a cluster of vertically developing CU near the PA/NJ border as of 16z. Latest radar trends are increasing with this activity as well. This convection is developing along an axis of greater instability extending from the northern Chesapeake Bay toward northern NJ. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase across this area over the next couple of hours. Moderate vertical shear will support organized clusters and semi-discrete supercell structures capable of damaging gusts. Stronger low-level shear and more favorably curved hodographs will reside from northeast PA/northern NJ toward the lower Hudson Valley. Latest VWP data from KBMG and KENX show enlarged low-level hodographs with 0-1 km SRH values greater than 300 m2/s2. However, weaker instability in conjunction with poor lapse rates may limit intensity/longevity of any stronger cells across this area. Nevertheless, any sustained convection will pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes. Given current trends, a watch will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/18/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

ughhh quite a bit of precipitation explosion occurring. This may be focused along with secondary surge of higher theta-e air. Hopefully this crap and blow through and then we can start thinning the clouds out.

yeah have to see how far north that area of clearing can get. Hopefully we don't see a situation where the weak capping allows crap to keep developing. Encouraging to see the HRRR with successive runs at some potent storms moving through Connecticut. Monday's I do trivia in New Britain so maybe I can get some good action going into CT later

HRRR again becoming quite ominous later. Already seeing some pretty impressive 3km CAPE (given the shear). HRRR also showing MLCAPE potentially 1500-2000 later on. May have to see some adjustments with the 5% TOR in the next update

some encouraging satellite trends. We obviously aren't going to see widespread full out heating but there's going to be at least pockets of stronger heating. Really won't need much to make [low-level] CAPE skyrocket given dews.

western CT and western MA may be prime areas of focus.

I put the hammock out in the yard yesterday. I want to tie myself to it and see how many times I can spin around when damaging winds blow through

Monday, July 18, 2022: Strong shear overspreading the region characterized by bulk shear values exceeding 30 knots and effective helicity values approaching 150-200 m2s2 along the warm front. A very moist low-level airmass characterized by dewpoints into the upper 60's is helping to yield modest CAPE values. With strong shear expected across the region through the day we'll see multiple opportunities for thunderstorms through the day. One this morning with the warm front and additional development over the course of the day. Given modest CAPE and strong shear (including directional shear) a few weak tornadoes and some localized damaging wind gusts are possible!!! Thursday, July 21, 2022: Potential for moderate instability and strong wind shear = wind damage threat!!! (More on this later)

Been doing house repairs all weekend and was working from about 7 AM well into the evening. Going to fire a thread for this week!!

Sometimes the best tickle is one you stretch for

On the look we probably just miss out of the biggest heat. Mid-to-upper 90's into PA/NJ/NYC while hottest temperatures here are more lower 90's.

I don't know how to do the GIFs so it would be better looped but the GFS tickles our fannies with EML plumes.

Sweet...hoping we'll see some purple and blue shadings pop up over the upcoming weeks here.