weatherwiz

ahhh that's right...that was some epic historic flooding along the Mississippi/Missouri Rivers in 1993.

I think 1993 had some pretty big severe events in NY/PA too with damaging winds.

If we start seeing fronts wash out and weaken as they approach before we get into July...we'll have a problem

The way that front is slowing down it may not come through here until Wednesday Some funky stuff happens tomorrow night too...looks like the front actually retreats to the northwest a bit back into the Missouri Valley region as opposed to continuing towards the Ohio Valley.

Front coming through a little too late for us

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/epo.data

I actually have heard of that! IIRC those were the strongest convective winds recorded in New England...which then of course was matched just two years later.

I just realized...I foresaw this in my dream a few weeks back when models were showing BDL pushing 100

850's look to be about a +2.5-3 SD...that's pretty impressive.

HI is virtually only important to determine how many people will drop like flies. I know BDL's daily record high for Saturday is 93. All time May record is 99 which has been achieved twice.

Ideally we want 98/65+ even moreso...98/70's

It's really more of a personal observation. I have done some searching to see if there was any documentation on this or any published papers but I never really found anything. But if you were to look at bufkit sounding every day (either for a particular location or a bunch of locations) and compare the NAM/GFS you'll almost always see the GFS show stronger/deeper mixing. I think another example of this can be MOS...how many times do you really see the NAM spit out higher temperatures than the GFS? The only times it seems the NAM has a much better handle is when you have a front nearby, something to really inhibit mixing, or if the wind flow makes sense (for example, we all know what a SE wind can do do temps here in the summer...the NAM may handle that better than GFS). I've never been able to come up with a sound reasoning or basis for this though. My guess is it has to do with the equations related to boundary layer depth/mixing but my math skills are too poor to really dig deeper into that. I first started this though when partaking in the Weather Challenge. One year the location was somewhere down in Alabama. It was the first day of the challenge too. It was a tough forecast b/c clouds were involved with potential for mixing. I think the NAM MOS was a high in the mid 70's with the GFS upper 70's or maybe 81. When I was doing mixing heights via bufkit I think I was getting lower 80's on NAM and mid 80's on GFS. I ended up going 86 for a forecast high (which was 7-8F above the national consensus)...their high ended up being 86 Kept me in first for the first week then I dropped off b/c of botched precip. forecasts week 2.

This is an excellent post and provides a great visual for explaining such scenarios. You're right...alot of people probably don't have passion (or even care) for these type of events...but the meteorology involved is extremely fascinating. What I bolded I think I also kinda outlined with the bufkit sounding for BDL Saturday. The GFS indicates a deeply mixed airmass across the interior Saturday with a very evident EML moving overhead during the day. Below the EML we're looking at a lapse rate (sfc to the base of the EML) closing in on 10 C/KM. I think having the presence of an EML here is HUGE in terms of eliciting this potential. This will limit clouds and allow for maximum mixing/heating. Now...what's always a challenge is the GFS has a tendency to overmix while the NAM has a tendency to undermix, however, I tend to find in scenarios where you have 'sensible' weather the GFS is much more accurate. And you hit the nail on the head in the final sentence...ultimately low-level and surface wind flow component is going to play a significant role. A trajectory which is more WSW vs. SW could be the difference in 5-7F across locations where marine flow tends to be an influence.

Still some big differences too on rain tonight/tomorrow morning but looks like there will be a narrow west-to-east corridor of heavy rain...where that axis sets up is a bit uncertain. May have to favor south?

GFS bufkit still indicating potential for mid-to-upper 90's in the Hartford area Saturday A bit of a marine later showing up at places like HVN and BDR, however, that is a very warm llvl airmass and wind component may be a bit more land than ocean. Could certainly see upper 80's even at HVN and BDR but once you get very close to the sound probably be like 7-10F cooler

Right Certainly can't rule out some elevated storms though Saturday night

The NAM is quite the soaking. All stems from the complex which materializes later today over IA/MO. But there are some large differences between the NAM/GFS in even how that evolves later and how it progresses through the Ohio Valley tomorrow. There isn't a ton of shortwave support which would be nice too see but dynamics are pretty nice and it seems to ride the instability gradient with solid theta-e advection out ahead of it. Guess we'll see

Looks like some could see a decent little soaking tomorrow night. The NAM is most aggressive in terms of QPF, however, you have a nice strengthening llvl jet with some decent lift moving overhead. This is why it's pointless to throw around QPF forecast charts through 10-days this time of year. There are so many small nuisances and drivers of convection that pop up in the short-term. Obviously there are going to be areas which receive more rain and areas which probably see nada...that's just the nature of the beast.

NBM extended has 93 for BDL Saturday. GFS has 95. GFS bufkit indicating potential for upper 90's . Looking like a W to WSW flow too at the sfc...as long as that direction is maintained 97-98 is doable (unless we see changes of course).

Here are some useful links to check out/explore https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/help/sfcoa.html https://www.weather.gov/bmx/outreach_severeparameters https://www.weatherwx.net/wp-content/uploads/severe_weather_checklist.pdf http://bangladeshtornadoes.org/EML/emlpage.html Alot of convective forecasting comes down to trying to understand or visualize how convection will respond based on the surrounding environment. This becomes easier over time after lots of practice/experience. What also helps is doing analysis of previous events...especially higher end events to get a great visual of what ingredients are in place during those setups and then comparing to events which are smaller magnitude. Any questions on anything please ask!

Healthy looking cell NW of Rockford, NY. Thought there looked to be a brief TDS

Lots of discrete cells popping now...too bad the strongest shear isn't until later

Really tough to get a widespread significant damaging wind event with 2-6km lapse rates this weak. 0-3km lapse rates are a bit better but would like to see them even steeper

Yes I would anticipate so

For 45% damaging wind probs the wind probabilities in the watches aren't particularly high...