weatherwiz

I do but your skin may feel otherwise.

Actually wouldn't be surprised if we saw some LES bands migrate well into portions of SNE tomorrow night.

That is true. Sometimes it’s more about getting pieces to align as opposed to the pattern itself. I think this winter is going to be even more complex than the last few. The global pattern is quite chaotic. I think it’s going to be difficult to put much stock into D7-10+ progs…even if there is model agreement.

Hopefully things pan out. We’ll see…need more than just a “good look”. I’m still waiting for the solid snows from the good look patterns from 2 winters ago.

IMO things are really going to come down to how much flexing of the SE Ridge we see (in terms of strength and positioning). One of the bigger discriminators between warmer La Nina winters and colder La Nina winters is how prevalent the SE ridge is. This obviously as well could have a significant impact on storm track (though not necessarily how active we are in terms of storms). The Pacific does look pretty decent but I kind of wish it was configured a bit differently.

Technically November is a fall month and March is a predominate winter month (since the equinox is past the halfway point of the month), but in meteorological terms it is a spring month as it signifies the start of "meteorological" spring.

Unless this is just more euro bias (though I thought that was corrected)

In reality there is a reason why models go crazy with storms in the medium-to-long range. Ultimately, the goal is for atmospheric equilibrium (that isn't the right term but I can't think of it right now) so in order to achieve this you need storms (too keep it simple) lol. It's certainly going to be a chaotic pattern upcoming, lots of wave breaking across the Pacific and we'll see the pattern shaped across North America by PNA/EPO influences too. It's always great to see a "good pattern" but IMO its how the pieces move and evolve within the pattern that are more important than the pattern itself.

All those too during tanked PDO times (except maybe 1898).

Seems like the post-Thanksgiving potential may be tied into exactly what happens within this area of the Pacific. The GFS has a pretty significant low pressure develop and move into the GoA. Quite a bit of latent heat release ahead of it really works to build the PNA out ahead of it. Vastly different then the Euro. I may not be 100% correct on this, but it seems like the GFS has been overestimating the strength on some of these lows in the medium-range going into the GoA.

Despite those challenges you mentioned, for some reason these are some of my favorite sunset captures yet. Perhaps its the different perspective of view/angle.

Fair lol

Please don't post his videos

I can't believe I am missing this storm in Florida by a week ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

I don’t think I want to go back to CT lol. My girlfriends parents place is sick. The view out the guest room window is amazing. Nice little pound in the back with iguanas walking around, little geico looking things, walking around in shorts. Palm trees. Please don’t send me back

87 with a dewpoint of 75. This would never get old

It is cold and windy up here damn it the picture won’t load

That is a monster ULJ too into the PAC NW region late this weekend. 180+ knots in the jet streak. That would have to shatter some Nov. records I would think (especially this early).

This time tomorrow I'll be in Florida where it will be well into the 80's with juicy humidity. With the Bruins on National TV tomorrow night I'm hoping I can drink margaritas in the hot tub and watch the Bruins

It looks like there is a great deal of cold which will be on this side of the hemisphere within the Arctic/polar regions so there's a decent bet we will see some impressive cold shots at times probably during the second half of the month. Could be pretty wonky though with mild/cold periods. Looks like there could be a quite a bit of wave breaking across the eastern PAC and CONUS so lots of ridge/trough scenarios. Our warm periods will probably be quite anomalous and our cold periods may be rather anomalous.

Delray Beach, FL

I'm not a bit water person but if the water is that warm I may love it. But I'm afraid of getting eaten by sharks so I might only go like ankle deep

Going to Florida for the first time ever Tuesday - Saturday. Was hoping for some good thunderstorm threats or even a late season tropical but can't wait to get back into 80's and humidity.

I currently don't have any thoughts. I don't feel comfortable enough attempting a long-range forecast right now. I want to continue doing research and better understand all the variables at play and the evolution of these variables through the cool season. I'm sure Ray will be posting his winter weather outlook very soon and I'm really looking forward to that. Perhaps he'll share some of his initial thoughts.

Here is December 1983 (ESOI value -3.5 which is lowest Dec value on record). Does not seem to fit the mold which is above-average EPAC below-average WPAC Here is December 1999 (ESOI values 2.4 which is highest Dec value on record). This seems to fit better (above-average EPAC below-average WPAC)