weatherwiz

EML's?

The difference is more between closed low or closed low becoming an open wave and de-amplifying against cut-off

selling the "cutoff"...if that can even be characterized as a cutoff

I love the 500mb look the GFS has moving into the first week of June. Not saying it will happen this way but as is that's a great look for thunderstorm chances. We're on the crest of strong mid-level ridging across the South so pretty strong westerly/west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Would keep opportunities for cooler mid-level temps with potential EML plumes and we can get advection of hot/humid air at the sfc. The look will probably change but if you're ever looking for a look which can offer up solid convective shots...that's one look

Outflow

Got to see some decent lightning at least…just like the Florida Panthers

Just the CG and BOOM

HOLY SHIT HUGE KABOOM

Really decent outflow winds here in Springfield

Hoping so! Been so many mixed signals on the pattern for the last week of May/first week of June. Been some hints at some sort of cut-off. If that doesn't verify we could get into a tasty pattern.

My guess would be BOX wasn't in agreement for a watch this early or maybe even at all. May see a new WW issued later but honestly I'm not so sure one is really warranted. Seems like this activity is going to fizzle rather quickly.

That is one massive watch https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0262.html

Be curious to see if that northern area is a TOR. LCL's on the high side but some curvature to the hodos.

They absolutely are. They were phenomenal too with communication and everything.

What a scary situation yesterday. I’ve been living with my aunt the past several years. I’ve been helping her out a lot as she has health issues going on. But end of February my girlfriend developed health issues and was diagnosed with a bad condition so I’ve been temporarily living with her. Anyways, my aunt called me last evening that there was a fire. The house is a ranch style condo. So one half of the building is ours (which she owns) and the other side has renters who rent from a different owner. I guess a fire broke out in the attic. Our side of the building suffered no damage. The other side suffered damage. My aunt was very scared b/c we have two cats and she couldn’t get them. But after everything was settled we were allowed back in and got the cats and she’ll be able to return home Monday when the power/gas can be turned back on. I am just so thankful the fire department is 30 seconds away and nobody was hurt. Our neighbors unfortunately lost their hamster though

This is how it should be everyday from May 1 - Nov 30. 90’s with 70’s dews

Sounds pretty terrible in Gaylord, MI...not good

Would be her best chance of seeing 6'' this weekend

Wasn't it

If a well-defined cold pool materializes we could maybe see a situation where rather strong outflow winds even propagate into southern Connecticut. This would also depend on how intense/large the complex can form in PA. Outflow could also spark some additional convection, especially if we can get some elevated instability in out ahead of it.

Could be some real nasty storms in PA later on. Wouldn't be surprised to see an ENH in the new outlook which should be out soon. Think even coastal CT has a shot depending on where the instability gradient sets up.

Squash is the stupidest thing ever.

There's definitely some opportunity for some elevated convection to pop tomorrow evening. Actually, we could even see thunderstorms moving through during the afternoon. Some models hint at the MCV which develops later this evening within the OV maintaining and moving across our region during the day. But tomorrow night we have the nose of the EML moving in, ample elevated CAPE, and a pretty solid theta-e ridge off to the west. Could certainly see some strong storms pop with the risk for small hail.

Yup...upper support certainly appears to go more zonal, meanwhile looks like the front becomes parallel to the mid-level flow. That alone would slow down the progression of the front but when you add in the upper support going more zonal and being displaced farther west from the front...that results in the tug back. If you look at the models tomorrow evening and watch the QPF field there are some rather interesting conclusions which can be drawn. This is shown really well on the CAMs but you get a line which develops just ahead of the front but the line actually appears to retrograde back to the northwest.