weatherwiz

It's also possible the HRRR may be overstating it

Have to go to Boston anyways for my girlfriend's neurology appointment.

HRRR has been pretty consistent with some decent activity in Connecticut. You can tell though how the lack of forcing is a bit problem because it doesn't really sustain the activity. Good CAPE and decent lapse rates help get things going but lacking the forcing to keep everything going. Kinda like pulse-type but not necessarily as shear is sufficient.

If NAMNEST is right I may want to hang around Boston. I can convince my girlfriend by taking her to the Bruins shop and buying her a Charlie Mcavoy jersey. She's a Florida Panthers fan (probably 1 of 7) but she likes Mcavoy and has said she has a feeling I'll be buying her a Mcavoy jersey some day. I initially said no b/c if I'm buying a jersey for someone it's me...but this may be worth it.

Yup that really is the biggest blemish today

That's what I'm thinking...but I have to convince my girlfriend to go too

Might be able to chase tomorrow. Have to bring my girlfriend to Boston for a neurology appointment which is at 2:45.

I wonder if we can muster up some supercells tomorrow. The lack of stronger forcing will work to limit storm coverage (which would increase potential for supercells) but on the other hand, the very weak forcing will make it difficult for supercell structures to probably become mature and sustaining. With this I think we'll see a few very nasty cells tomorrow afternoon. I may take back my prediction of an enhanced risk...not sure the potential is widespread enough (wind damage) to warrant it (except in Maine).

NBM picked up on this yesterday...although I don't think it was as extreme with a 110-130 direction but I do recall the NBM going in the 170-180 direction.

I would throw money into that bet as well.

Sunday could be a decent severe potential

Might be a shot in the dark but I wonder if the Gulf of Mexico has influenced this as well. Waters in the Gulf of Mexico have been above-average and also warming even earlier. This could explain why we've seen some stretches the past decade where we're getting some relatively high dews earlier on in the season. It might not be that far-fetched of a thought...the Gulf of Mexico has a significant influence east of the Mississippi.

This While I agree that our warming is contributed to warmer overnight lows there is actually strong influence by a warming ocean on this. If you think about it, a warmer ocean yields greater low-level moisture. This is one reason why I think we've seen an increase in cool season severe events (especially closer to the coast) the past several years. The warmer waters are yielding greater low-level moisture which in turn is yielding greater low-level instability. And with the warmer oceans and higher concentration of low-level moisture you're decreasing the efficiency of radiation. H20 is a stronger heat trapping gas than CO2. But yeah...this process will have a much stronger influence on nighttime as opposed to daytime. This is because H20/CO2 does not absorb shortwave radiation emitted by the Sun that well, but they do absorb longwave radiation emitted by the Earth very well. (Note: I know CO2 does...not sure if this is true for H20 as well. Don't remember).

Agreed...seems like N of the Pike event. Moreso like New Hampshire into Maine.

This is probably more of a NNE event. This actually kind of sucks because there looks to be a remnant EML or plume of steeper lapse rates which moves overhead tomorrow. But bulk shear looks to weaken with the main shortwave well into southeast Canada so heights rise. This could be a pretty decent wind event though for NNE. I wouldn't be surprised to see an enhanced risk at some point.

If I moved everything would just shift east.

Why is it so fooking hard to get an EML in here. This is crab grass damn ridiculous. Just watching them fizzle out like the Maple Leafs in May. ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Probably be a NNE ordeal

I think those are quite high. Maybe by like 30%

Those are the ones you want to watch out for.

How does heat like that happen there?

Starting to look at it in a bit more detail but yeah shear isn't anything crazy...it's adequate (and heck...sometimes that is better than overwhelming shear lol). But one thing that sort of sticks out to me is heights look to remain neutral or rise slightly through the day? The main shortwave lifts ENE and is pretty far into Canada. Never good for us

ehhh I think there needs to be expectations with these type of setups and just convection in general. Due to the nature of convection and processes involved I don't think you can ever classify severe events as a bust if they don't pan out (perhaps with exception of what the SPC designates as a high risk setup). In this setup (and similar set ups) the risk for severe weather is low. The risk for a widespread severe weather event is as close to zero as you can get without saying zero. You're really only tracking and looking for the potential of one or two cells which are going to become mature enough to utilize all the ingredients.

Today is why “drought” talk in SNE is LOL.

I actually think I can smell the Sun