weatherwiz

Lightning has kind of petered out

Squalls are probably a good bet later on and tonight. These fronts almost always have them.

Lightning ramping up around PHL

Nearly a 150 knot ULJ streak providing substantial upper-level divergence in our region. Based on the ingredients I listed above, combined with this jet support, I think we are going to see a significant line move through. I guess we have the wind advisories out, but I am also shocked there isn't discussion for a severe thunderstorm watch, especially since there is some lightning generation.

Even though obs aren't terribly impressive to the southwest in terms of wind, you have to winder if that changes here. Looking at mesoanalysis, RAP, and HRRR it seems the ingredients are all there for some big winds here. RAP has about 100 J/KG of SBCAPE and MLCAPE, with 50-75+ J of 3KM CAPE and low-level lapse rates steepen to around 7 C/KM with even steeper 2-6km lapse rates. And look at these pressure changes which should continue to see an increasing delta

That's a good thought. Definitely some enhancement in the valley. BDL was sustained 30-35 for some hours...that's not bad at all.

This looks like fun

It also seems like the core of the LLJ actually crossed over Connecticut. I think some of the guidance the past few days actually kept this more across RI and SE MA. This combined with a few hundred J of MUCAPE and sfc temps well into the 50's probably did the trick.

too many IPA's impacting his math conversion ability

This is what to watch out for with the line later. That's some pretty decent llvl CAPE

Should see a pretty nasty low topped line move across Connecticut and points northeast early afternoon. This could produce some very nasty wind. Power outages will likely climb. I'm kicking myself hardcore for poo-pooing the winds on here the past few days with this AM round. While the lapse rates weren't great, there was some pretty decent CAPE being modeled. ughhh

Have to wonder if the lack of rain enhanced wind potential

57K without power in CT. Me FTL

There is a huge discriminator between events which produce and events which don't and it puzzles me how every time we go into these highly dynamic events whistles and alarms go off for wind, only for these to be retracted a bit. Unless there is a strong signal that low-level lapse rates are going to be steep or you're not going to get the high end potential. Of course higher elevations and coastal plain are different where you have a better chance too. A 50-60 mph wind gusts event in the winter is not uncommon. Will there be power outages, yes. Will there be widespread power outages, no.

Unless you plan on traveling via snowmobile, I doubt it.

Ever since Lamont nailed them with fines, anytime there is a sniff of higher wind gusts, Eversource is now going to ask for crews all over. They're petrified to screw up again. Plus they want to do a massive rate hike on customers so they want to "look good" to get that approved. The state is not going to see over 100,000 without power unless we get a low topped derecho to blow through

NBM has some 50+ knot gusts at PWM early AM...not bad

the focus on the top was the winds...potentially sustained 30-40 mph there with gusts upwards of 70 mph. The bottom is showing substantial upward vertical motion in the DGZ which is essentially several feet above the ground. That's advertising 2-3'' per hour rates for a prolonged period.

This 12z NAM bufkit for BUF is ridiculous The momentum transfer is toggled to 10 so that could be overstating the winds THIS IS THE BEST PART THOUGH...HOLY SMOKES

Not really...it's happened each of the past few winters. The big difference is this one is occurring during one of, if not, the busiest travel week, shipping week, etc. of the year.

This just makes me want to jump into a giant pit of lava

Hi-res showing a decent amount of 3km CAPE traversing CT, RI, and SE MA just ahead of that low topped line early afternoon...right along the leading edge of the Arctic air. Lightning products even suggesting lighting. Wouldn't e surprised to see several SVR's tomorrow.

Could be quite the ice storm for Portland/Seattle. Everyone gets all the winter fun but us...fook

I think there was also one in the 1950's or maybe 1960's (maybe not Christmas Day) but late in December. Think it might have been an F1 or F2 too.

I'll be dropping TOR's under people's trees