weatherwiz

IDK...maybe his roof does get dislodged

There are going to be some flooding concerns Sunday into Monday. Some spots are going to see 4-5'' of rain.

Our winds come on the backside. We could see gusts 35-45 mph one the backside once winds flip WNW-NW and we crank the CAA with steepening low-level lapse rates.

GFS is cranking for Portland

GFS has ~110 knots at 850mb too. Not sure I've seen that (outside of tropical obviously). Thinking this may be a bit overdone but the NAM also has this and Euro as well (though can't tell what max is on euro)

I wonder if Steve's ancestors wrote any songs about this.

Yeah good point, that shows just how difficult it is to make happen. Some of these October's though have had some pretty hefty blocks. Now I see why there used to be that talk of the somewhat positive relationship between blocking in October and blocking during the upcoming winter.

Was doing some 500mb height anomaly composites of EL Nino/La Nina October's and I have to say...seeing some of those October configurations, I am shocked we haven't seen late October events which rivaled October 2011. Now part of that could be that nay have been one of the latest year's with majority of foliage on trees.

Looks like Wednesday or Thursday we could have a shot for some scattered snow showers

Going on a week and a half with COVID. Symptoms certainly aren't to the level they were last week but holy crap I am absolutely exhausted right now. That has to be related. I got no less sleep than usual but over the past hour I just got hit like a brick with exhaustion

That tree would be set on fire immediately

mid-level dry slot punching in

Fine by me. When I used to be a walker...I HATED wind when it was cold. There is nothing more pointless than freezing cold WITH wind. When I had to walk places and it was cold and windy...I used to just scream and curse b/c I'd be so angry.

When I took Oceanography several years ago (which was a super fun class) and we were on the subject of the global heat budget there was some discussion by the professor as one theory behind why we have seen so many hurricanes rapidly strengthen in certain regions. Obviously, we all know that heat is transported poleward via ocean and atmospheric currents and that there is always an excess of heat budget within the Tropics. However, given the rapid warmth at the Poles, the transport budget is being impacted and it's possible that there is an excess budget within the tropics and when tropical systems are able to tap into this they just take off running.

Great point. That's important to understand, especially when using anomaly charts. Still have to understand what the climo and avg. is.

Remember there was a time in the winter models would spit out like 2'' QPF during storms and more often than not those numbers would be tossed. We've seen plenty of big dog storms (though certainly not lately) where 2'' QPF is almost too little

Intriguing. Makes a lot of sense when you think about it. I know I've read some stuff which argued differently - that a warming planet would result in decreased winds due to a lessening temperature gradient between the poles and equator (with the greatest warming obviously occurring at the poles). But strengthening jet stream makes sense. Sure the temperature contrast between pole and equator is a larger driver in the jet stream, but there is also the vertical contrast in temperature which must be factored in. Much of, if not, all the warming is occurring within the lower troposphere so there is an increasing gradient in the vertical which would also influence the jet. Density differences as well would play a significant factor.

They cancel winter if they get 2-3'' of snow when they were expecting 4-5''.

The GFS does get some weak mixed-layer CAPE into eastern sections early Monday morning so that is something to watch for getting 55-60+ mph gust potential.

No doubt.

same here. If January and/or February do not work out I am going to be at a loss for words.

Rolling that pattern forward would probably equate to big January potential

Here's IJD. There's only so many locations you can get bufkit data for. Here's HVN

Here is the 6z GFS bufkit for BDL. Max gust potential I can find atop the mixed layer is 51 knots. But looking at the sounding, it's pretty unlikely we would actually fully mix so adjusting the Momentum Xfer down a notch you can see now something around 35 knots...this is more realistic There is higher wind potential on the backside with the CAA and better mixing with steeper lapse rates

The algorithm in those wind maps must be designed to use a constant mixing depth. At least on bufkit you can play around with different mixing heights.