weatherwiz

That game still gives me nightmares

Wouldn't dewpoint be a more appropriate metric vs. RH during the summer?

This really hits the nail on the head. This is very important, not just with tropical meteorology, but can be applied to long-range forecasting as well. The structure and evolution of features is way more important than phase (and even at times, strength) but getting to that understanding can be quite difficult just because of how complex the atmosphere is. Wave breaking is rather fascinating. It's really cool to look at a world map during the fall/winter months and see wave breaking in action and how it helps to shape the downstream pattern. The MJO is also highly intriguing. While it gets used heavily in medium-to-early long range forecasting and especially with tropical I think sometimes it gets too much weight put on it...and I say this because it is not an easy feature to forecast. Since it is pretty much tied into convection it makes it very vulnerable. We've seen plenty of times before where even if models are in strong agreement with its evolution the verification still ends up way off.

Certainly possible, the MJO can certainly be a precursor at times but we're going to need to see some big changes across the Atlantic Basin as well though. Not saying this season is a bust, we're still about 5-6 weeks away from peak climo anyways and things can always get active in a hurry. The MJO is also a horrific pain to really forecast lol.

I don't like window fans. One time several years ago the window fans sucked in all the pollen and my bedroom looked like someone emptied 1,000 green pixie sticks all over

I think Vegas has had more rain in the past week than most of us have had in the past few months

Well-stated. Wish so many more had this thought process/understanding. Big reason why I'm a huge fan of your outlooks/discussions. You get very deep and thorough and don't loosen the jeans b/c one parameter is of liking.

I'm actually very happy for this for the sole reason there were so many hype forecasts about how crazy active it was going to be and blah blah blah b/c of the persisting Nina conditions and solely using ENSO as an indicator. At some point there will be a realization that ENSO (unless in a strong state) does not hold the weight we all once thought it did.

Watch out for cirrus Thursday...although that may be more of an issue for northern New England but it's something to watch. We've had plenty of higher end of the spectrum heat days held back b/c of high clouds.

It was also in a really tough radar spot. we need radar back at BDL!!!!!!

Ocean may evaporate is that verifies

Obviously I think we know the extent of the heat is way overdone, but if not, it's very hard to see that verifying. First off, there is likely to be some sort of at least weakly diffused [cold front] boundary somewhere within the region. Based on the flow aloft and how it looks to potentially be convectively active across the northern Plains (closer and just north of the international border) we are going to have potential to deal with lots of high cloud debris...heck, maybe even chances for convection. If we were seeing 850's of like +24C to +26C or whatever being modeled...might be a bit more optimistic because we all know models tends to back off on those as we get closer. Anyways...one of these days we will see an outcome like this verify.

59-mph gusts at the airport with flooding...wild. I think they got over 2'' of rain last night lol. They average just above 4'' per year I think.

It was quite the boundary for sure with an extensive temperature/moisture gradient. Despite how significant the flooding was in the St. Louis area and the devastating flooding that resulted in Kentucky I had thought we would see even more flooding occur this week. That boundary really did not move much either over the course of the week. I think what helped prevent a more widespread significant episode was the precipitation ended up coming in more batches.

Not sure what to take end of next week. GFS has some high heat building in towards the end of the week while the Euro is a bit more reserved. Pretty big differences too between the Euro/GFS at H5 with where the ridge is centered. There looks to be a [weak] cold front which tries pushing across the Northeast later in the week so sort of leaning towards a more reserved (but still hot) Euro look.

Las Vegas got absolutely crushed last night.

Could have been a tree topper

This rain is wild. Severe rain

Super intense rain

Montreal screw job?

Rotation not looking bad at all. Was thinking of Palmer. Only about 20 min away but I hate cutting timing close.

Wish I had time to get to South Hadley or just east ughh

Hoping for a solid hit in Springfield! I can hear thunder

in a tough radar spot. rotation seems perhaps a bit too weak but it's gotta be dropping some hail. Starting to see a slight uptick in intensity as they move through the Hudson Valley. Some decent CAPE and shear...lapse rates are quite poor so that will really limit how much stronger these can get. Probably see this activity pulse up and down through sunset.

Nasty cell near Lake Luzere. Looks to be dropping some hail