weatherwiz

Unfortunately all rain here in Springfield. Real bummer. Nothing worse then cold rainy days. They just make you tired. And I'm already tired b/c 10:30 hockey games suck

18z NAM bufkit for ORH. Going to have nearly perfect dendrites

Don't count your chickens before they shit

This is going to be a fun week of tracking. Hopefully people just keep in check though and understand the caveats that will apply and don't live-and-die by each subsequent model run. Models struggle big time with confluence so with that alone it won't be surprising to see wild changes from OP run to OP run. But until we get inside D5 the only thing that will matter is the evolution of the pattern. SLP tracks, snowfall maps mean squat. Just b/c an OP run may show no storm verbatim won't mean the storm is "lost" and just b/c an OP run may show a Georgie orgie blizzard, doesn't mean it's a lock.

Yeah confluence for sure would be a huge player in this. but we gotta keep in mind that while confluence can be our friend, it can also be our enemy. But as this stage...looking at the individual members Will posted when its close to the benchmark, all we can really take in right now is that there is potential for substantial cylogenesis off the coast. we hope this signal persists until we get close enough to pick out details.

yeah it is a bit warmer, but also not sure its as juiced with the precip.

Nice isothermal layer with a rather deep unstable layer and plenty of lift in the DGZ

NAM looking a bit juicer and subsequently a tick colder

Won't have blocking in the form of NAO blocking, but per the EPS we would be dealing with a high pressure to the north so something to watch. Even this far out though that detail can be iffy. One thing of note is the NAO looks to be trending more negative around this timeframe which would indicate higher heights (higher pressure) building into the NAO domain which could support a "blocking" potential.

Not too go all Georgie here, but if this signal really holds and we are flirting with a low coming up the coast, with how warm the SST's are the amount of moisture inflow would be through the roof. With this you also get nervous for any track along the coast without locking in colder air.

It's like a mini firehose with some convection too

One thing that is great to see (and just using a single timestamp to illustrate) is how the GFS finally signals some changes to the orientation and structure of the jet across and east of Asia. We lose the Nino-esq jet extension and get a more poleward jet. Downstream we also see wave breaking shifted west 20-30° which favors higher potential for an evolving ridge across the West and subsequent trough across the east

Agreed. Also, this isn't a scenario where you have a rapidly drying column. The column remains quite moist and you still have some weak ulvl divergence present so that's a real possibility.

So after going back and assessing and taking your input, I've made the switches of the basin-wide to west-based for those years. I think before I may my list final, I want to do composites of OLR and see if that can help aid in any guidance. I also am thinking of coming up with a breakdown for SSTA's off the West Coast. There are a solid mixture of events with significant SSTA differences here and my inclination is that could be a significant player. The same can be said for Nina's. I was looking into the Trans-Nino Index, but TBH, I don't truly understand it and some breakdowns I was doing with it made zero sense.

May 12th?

cobb techniques actually go nuts with ratios during the window of maximized lift. That's what to really watch out for. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 1-2'/HR type stuff (of course though this will all be moving quick) and that's where you'll see totals get in the 3-4'' range.

Despite the marginal sfc temperatures I think there is an argument for standard snowfall ratios (maybe even a touch higher). Not region-wide but where the best lift occurs.

Don't have ENS out that far yet but this look verbatim...given where we are in time frame...I'll take this all day. Favorable position of the ridge axis, trough digging into the southeast with shortwave energy about to round the base and go negatively tilted towards the Southeast coast. Can't ask for more than that. Who gives a **** what the SLP maps or snowfall maps show

Potent shortwave amplifying and passing near Rhode Island combined with enhanced upper-level divergence, and sufficient moisture will help aid in the blossoming of a precipitation shield across the region. Thermal profiles, particularly away form the coastal Plains support snow, especially under heavier rates. 12z NAM bufkit sounding for ORH shows a perfect crosshair signature (maximum lift within the DGZ) indicating at least a period of moderate-to-heavy snow is possible.

I'll start it. It works well for severe weather so maybe it will for winter too

Now school's close or delay if the sun is too bright. I remember April of 2002 in 6th grade and it being well into the 80's. The A/C's weren't turned on yet and it was super hot. Never heard of school closing for that. But i will say...if there is any type of heavy snow in the forecast or ice...it makes absolutely zero sense to have people be outside driving. My first job was working at an ice skating rink and during big storms (especially if school's were closed) they would stay open and add public skating times. Yeah yeah yeah I get business and its $$$$ but why give the people the option to go out? ahh right $$$$ > life

I'm actually a bit excited for tomorrow...just to see snow. whether it accumulates that's just going to be a bonus. but I'll actually stay up for models tonight (only because the Bruins play at 10:30 tonight...YUCKKKKKKK)

There is some decent divergence aloft and enhanced lift with the shortwave tracking just south. Also have sufficient moisture to work with. I guess it depends on one's expectation, but I would think we see a nice blossoming shield of light snow hit most and then where you have stronger and deeper lift you'll stand the chance to get maybe 2-3''. I suppose a 4'' total can't be ruled out but I wouldn't hope on that.

I think this really gets going a bit too late to give much of anyone (outside of northeast CT) the chance for any type of accumulation.

This is quite impressive Deeply saturated and quite unstable with strong lift right into the DGZ. That would be some excellent snowgrowth