weatherwiz

Temp is averaged daily temp (max + min / 2)

what are your thoughts regarding average anomaly vs. standardized anomaly.

That's a great point. I'm hoping to re-upload the GIFs in the original post sometime over the weekend.

Great idea classifying that way! while I didn’t include this in my initial notes or within any work I have taken similar notes as well regarding trends.

Great question!

Very interesting paper. There still leaves alot to be desired with machine-learning. I bet even in the future, no matter how advanced it becomes, you'll still have forecasters who can beat machine-learning. But I think ultimately, machine-learning should just be used as another tool (and perhaps a pretty powerful tool). I think the biggest challenge overall is machine-learning techniques will always be playing catch up...there are an infinite number of possibilities and potentials.

Gotcha, thanks! I do find machine learning quite interesting and probably should look more into it. I'm sure doing so would probably reduce my skepticism a bit.

I'm very skeptical when it comes to machine learning and weather. It seems to be gaining lots of steam, especially within the private sector, but my fear is it is going to be misused. I know machine learning has had some incredible results within the nowcast period (within 6-12 hours) but when looking farther ahead in time isn't still using model data? So wouldn't it really be as accurate as the data going into it?

This isn't going to be an eye popping setup and it is still a week out so this could obviously change but it's been a signal for a few days. The overall look remains me of some of the fall setups we have seen to be getting the last several years.

I wonder how that product handles high shear/low CAPE setups. Looks like a setup where we'll have nearby warm front with plenty of shear and should get some aided llvl CAPE boosting from high dewpoints and warmer waters.

Hope they keep the animals at the San Diego zoo safe.

Going to have to start a severe thread for next Wednesday soon!

These red flag warnings are nuts

I was struggling earlier with the intervals as well when re-doing temp maps. I used a range of -7 to 7 and interval of 1. I did it for All La Nina winters and weak La Nina winters (using the Ensemble ONI) and just doing a consistent legend yielded a much better look for re-analysis!

I've been wanting to start something like this for a while! It's great to bounce ideas and thoughts back and forth. I've had a vested interest in this area for like 15-years now and I've always struggled to really get going with research and analysis...mostly because I have a tendency to overanalyze and get too granular (hence the separation of basin wide vs. central based). I don't think its a bad idea either to compare to the most recent climatological period. I think there is some significant value in this because you can compare earlier years to an earlier climate period to the most recent climo period...doing this I think you can spot trends and see perhaps what areas are being influenced more heavily by recent warming trends.

Next Tuesday still has that low topped spinner threat look!!!

The best pears in the world are from Harry & David’s

Going to the grocery store and I have to put the heat in the car on…BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. I miss Mother Nature’s heat

I often wonder how history would have unfolded if a pear hit Newton on the head instead of an apple

Severe threat next Tuesday and/or Wednesday (Tuesday just west Wednesday here)?

Sweet...didn't know you could change the color scheme. Ahhh I think I see why yours is saying 1990-2020 climo. Make sure you have mean checked off and not anomaly in variable statistic. Even though it says mean you'll get the map as an anomaly as its subtracting the difference from your input year against your desired climo period.

lol at "no rain after today" We'll see scattered showers throughout the day tomorrow. I wouldn't rule out the potential for a sneak band of rain to even impact portions of the outer Cape. Sure we'll dry out the end of the week with high pressure building in but 3-4 days of no rain doesn't make for "Stein". then next week...there is a boatload of moisture which will be transported up along the East Coast. With these stronger fronts and subsequently deeper trough digging into the Plains we'll be establishing deep southerly-to-southwesterly flows throughout the column...a far cry from what we were able to do during the summer. We just got widespread 2-3''+ of rain. The drought stuff before was fun but come on...we went into summer abnormally dry and widespread synoptic rain events aren't typically very common in the summer...we usually rely on convection (granted this certainly underperformed). Now we're moving into the cool season where odds for cyclogensis increases and we get more moving pieces and deeper/stronger troughs plus not to mention very warm waters (high PWAT city).

I'm not a fan of the background or color scheme either. hmmm this is what I got using your parameters Here is the input fields. Maybe you forgot to fill both boxes in with NCEP/NCAR?

Crap power briefly went out. Maybe the rain is too much on the power lines

Also given the changes I have done/am doing at some point I'm going to delete all the original graphics/GIFs I posted and re-upload them. There was a few ENSO events I forgot to add into the structure category.