weatherwiz
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The GFS may actually end up not performing that well overall with this and not just talking about locally. I guess it also depends on what metrics you're evaluating, but the GFS has always been fast with everything. It was fast with the convection moving across the south and fast with timing of everything into the OV and Northeast. NAM was always slower with everything. -
ahhh so another week of uconn basketball left
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it's an elongated piece of crap...good night
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I've always meant to ask you...why don't you like hockey?
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I just watched the Netflix documentary the other night...absolutely wild. Did you ever watch Making a Murder?
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Radar doesn't look like shit here
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Even on the cute GFS, the greatest WAA is southern areas. This has huge bust potential up north IMO
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I'd be very skeptical with that much QPF that far north this time around. Convection is going to rob a ton of moisture from this. Also, the better dynamic support may be more south.
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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
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NO SNOW MAPS....PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD NO MORE SNOW MAPS.
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It's cyclical, we go through several year stretches of putrid winters, then several year stretches of great winters. If we go through another couple winters like this in a row then there is something definitely wrong with the climate.
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The good thing is we will be entering a stretch of great winters very soon.
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Well this winter has been an unfortunate dud, however, we can't sulk for too long as severe weather season is RIGHT around the corner. This thread has been started a bit later then usual, but with some increasing winter potential moving through late February and early March the winter torch was lit a bit longer. Anyways we are 60 days away from May 1st!!!!!
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Time to fire up the May 1st thread. Severe weather season is less than two months away!!!!
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Well looks like a low is blossoming. Now that it's actually occurring this should get ingested into the 0z models so hopefully that will help reduce alot of the uncertainty. Not just for our region but for the northern Ohio Valley...what a brutal pain of a forecast there
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That sounds extremely reasonable, great way to go
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If NAM is poo poo I'm really liking this area for max potential
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I don't think even Linus Ullmark can stop this warm tongue
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Same thing with the vorticity. The vorticity is through the roof but it's not necessarily one consolidated piece of energy. It's like a giant unorganized cluster of vorticity.
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What's kind of interesting is regarding the parent low, it looks like models (especially mesos) never really develop a defined circulation. Almost looks like a series of mesolows which must be tied into the convection. This would certainly explain the NAM being removed from other guidance.
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Oh hail yeah. Now that's a giant hail producer
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Not only will today/tonight's convection play a factor, but tomorrow's convection too. I'm still puzzled at the expansive slight risk, but that area of enhanced risk is the focal point. Pretty strong signals for a rather small, but intense line of thunderstorms to move northeast through that corridor. Depending how robust that is that may really throw some wrenches in.
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Maybe after my 9.5% beer during the Bruin game tonight my feelings will change
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It's bizarre but you just can't toss a model b/c its not a desirable solution. I mean outside of swaying from other guidance, there's really no way to say with any certainty if it's an outlandish solution. But like I mentioned earlier, once we have an actual low developed (which that process is currently happening) and the convective episode is ongoing, the models will have a much better handle. for now, nothing can be tossed.
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that is one insane jet streak rounding the base of the trough...120+ knots at 500mb...wowzers
