weatherwiz

hmm yeah it may be. I'm glued to CC right now waiting for a tiny TDS to pop up on a scan

Rotation near Ware is getting very close to warnable

Two distinct areas of rotation

any hail? ughhhh I wish I was there. I should have worked from my aunts today

Could see some pretty large hail there. Maybe close to 1.50'' to golf ball

not a bad thing. may see a line materialize along the NY/MA border. Lots of updrafts on the tail end of that bower

Wish it was like 2-3 hours later

Let’s go baby!!!!!!! Let’s go go go

It's like dangling a carrot in front of the horse.

Big wind near Nassau, NY

It’s definitely going to pass by Tocqueville north but with my luck some +CG will occur well ahead of it lol. I hope we don’t get stuff popping too early but capping eroding quickly.

Was just about to take lunch and go outside and play with the dog but there is a lightning strike near Westfield.

I wonder if we could see some dewpoint pooling today. RAP getting MLCAPE upwards of 2,000 J/KG which we can only do if dews indeed get close to 70 or so.

He is amazing. I just wish he got along with other dogs. He is probably the sweetest dog I've ever met. At night, especially in the winter he comes into bed and lays in the middle and tucks himself under the blankets and gets a spot on the pillow. Prior to my girlfriend moving to Springfield for law school, she grew up in Florida and went to college in Orlando. She had always wanted a dog and went to the animal shelter one day. Of all the dogs in the shelter, he was the only one to go right up to her and that's how she knew that was the dog. He had only been in the shelter for one day. He came in with a litter. I guess they were badly abused. But he was also attached by two unleashed dogs in Florida and she thinks that is why he is not good with other dogs. But I can't believe anyone would have abuse him (or animals). I wish those people could get the death penalty...seriously. Nothing makes me more upset than animal abuse.

careful what you wish for

There is not a single toy he won’t destroy.

Yup!

Speaking of dogs from earlier the dog likes his stuffy (that he destroyed within 3-seconds of giving it to him over the weekend).

One thing to watch closely is how the LLJ responds tomorrow afternoon. Both NAM/GFS start to pulse it up a bit moving through the afternoon, especially eastern sections with a more southerly component.

NAM and 3km NAM look pretty decent as well.

Yup coverage will certainly more scattered-to-numerous.

HRRR gone wild

ehhh still a long way to do. Who even knows if that system will be a thing. I guess though if some wave can get into the Caribbean and heads towards the Gulf it will encounter favorable conditions.

GFS remains pretty consistent with a cane into the Gulf of Mexico first weekend of September. Still obviously in fantasy range but the consistency is noted.

A shortwave trough will be moving across southeast Canada and northern New England through the day Friday with a surface low moving east-northeast across northern New England. This will push a warm front through southern New England with a cold front arriving from the west. Out ahead of the cold front and south of the warm front a very warm and humid airmass is expected to materialize with high temperatures likely pushing into the lower-to-mid 80's (there is the potential for some upper 80's) with dew points into the 60's. This should net around 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE with stronger instability limited by only 60's dewpoints and adequate mid-level lapse rates. A ribbon of 25-35 knots (35-45 knots) of bulk shear should traverse the region as the shortwave trough approaches. While wind shear is not tremendously strong, this shear is more than adequate for thunderstorms to become organized and likely develop into multicell clusters or short line segments. Strongest thunderstorms, especially within the stronger bulk shear may take on transient supercell characteristics. The result will be the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon moving in a west-to-east fashion across the region. Strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps even some hail or even a brief tornado (especially in the vicinity of the warm front where low-level shear will be enhanced). Let's do it!!!!!