weatherwiz

I would also be shocked if the NBM missed by that much. I don't think the NBM is as great as it's advertised to be, but it seems to do a solid job with lows. I could see a -2 or -3 but -7 might be a stretch, especially since it also appears the core of the cold may not really get that far south.

19z NBM gets BDR down to 0. I've never used HRRR for temps too much, but I feel like it can often be too cold, especially in these air masses.

18z NAM bufkit for BDL at 7:00

I want to go see what CEF reported. There was some wild gusts here during that time. I was really nervous about losing power since we heat with electric.

12z NAM bufkit had some 50+ potential at BDL basically between now and 11 tonight

Interested to see how low BDL gets tonight. NBM/MOS guidance all pegs -7 and GFS/NAM bufkit support this too. Have to see how quickly temps drops in the next 3-4 hours. Looks like the core of the airmass there happens late evening. Have to wonder how much the wind will factor in keeping things just mixed enough to prevent a full on drop.

tiny tiny and I do mean tiny tiny flakes falling here in Springfield now.

it's occluding and dying. The only thing its going to do is back in and dry hump Kevin

This kind of reminds of of Brett Favre's final few playing years. Just ugly to watch unfold but you keep watching b/c you're a Vikings fan and well...you have no choice b/c he's your QB. But yeah crazy, crazy odd. 850 flow becomes more from the ocean and 925 flow is able to keep cold locked in. **** this

Looks like an occluding, dying, piece of crap

Holy smokes. Tornado emergency on this. Been on the ground for a while. Huge TDS

Wow the damage in Sacramento is wild

You’re right. That’s a great point.

5:30 PT! thank God. Wish this was done but there's another 10:00 game in February

10:00 AM seems more manageable then staying up to 1 AM. yeah I found out the hard way I can't do that anymore Friday morning was tough (but drinking a 9.5% beer and a 6.5% beer didn't help either.

They should start these games 6:30 PT. 9:30 is still a bit much for East Coast people but it better then 10:30.

well another stupid, ridiculous 10:30 Bruins game tonight so hopefully the GFS takes a page out of the Bruins book tonight and delivers. If the GFS sucks I'm going to throw the beer can at the computer (once its empty).

Well not necessarily. In a nutshell, indices are how we assess and analyze the pattern. Many of the indices out there are a measure of pressure anomalies between fixed pressure circulations. For example, when we're talking about say the North Atlantic Oscillation and say it is negative, that is suggesting that the pressures associated with the icelandic low and azores high are both weaker than average. The biggest challenge becomes with interpretation and understanding of what each of these indices mean and how they are all driving the pattern. More times than not, the pattern is not driven by one variable. But what there seems to be a tendency of is making 1:1 correlations when there is no 1:1 correlation. Back to the NAO example, we tend to think of negative NAO's as being below-average temperature wise in the Northeast with increased snowfall potential, however, that is not a 1:1 correlation. The overblown comes with the "the PNA, EPO, AO, NAO, MJO " is this so we'll see this.

Sometimes I think the MJO gets overblown. Not downplaying it's importance but I feel like anytime the winter is going back in the Northeast you get folks trying to use the MJO as a saving grace and that the MJO is going to save the day.

Considering the longer dataset of the ensemble ONI, I'm a bit concerned with the lack of weak events

Posted this in the ENSO thread, but with talk of Nino this is the different flavors we can get during Nino's in terms of temps. Plenty more of composites to come

I really think what makes things worse is we can't even really buy light snow events...forget getting big winter storms. I don't know the statistics on this, but our years which are considered above-average is it due to big storms, a ton of smaller storms, or a combination of both? But we can't even buy several 2-4'' events. We can't even get snow flurries.

I don't think it's totally wrong to hold out for March. I mean sure the odds historically aren't great, but they aren't zero. You never know what can really happen moving through February and into March. Something could occur that could totally shake the pattern and we've seen that happen before. Again, the probability is very low, but not zero and that's all that really counts.

This is what really intrigues me with long-range. For the past 3 winters now, we have seen models (ensembles) go bonkers with these pattern configurations in the medium-to-long range, but we never get there. There has got to be something with the physics of the models in these atmospheric states in which the calculations of the physics just go to this output. So either something isn't being handled right within the models, some equation is way off, or heck, maybe there is too much weight being placed on one variable or a magnitude of order is off. This is just me thinking incorrectly out loud but it's been a constant theme these past 3 winters so there has to be a reason.

Looking back at December I really think it was the Arctic domain that screwed us more then anything. There was so much excitement for blocking and a negative NAO, but I think the structure and placement of the anomalies hurt us. I think if we had seen these anomalies farther to the north and east we would have been smoked the second half of the month. I guess you could argue having the height anomalies in the GoA farther east too. But look at the 10-20 and then 20-25. If that block is farther east the trough axis is shifted east and more favorable for us. IIRC, there seems to be a lot of optimism for a west-based NAO block, but IMO, an east-based is what we really want. When you get west-based (and displaced south) with a strong anomaly, you're playing with serious fire and risking higher height anomalies extending into our latitude.