weatherwiz

With that shortwave digging and tracking where it is, it's difficult to not see this overperform somewhere.

This is quite unstable. Pretty solid lift too into the DGZ (This is somewhere in Worcester county...I think. I just did the plot from the national sector so could be off a bit).

Just noticed this but look at those negative SSTA's in the Gulf of Mexico and off the East Coast lol. Will we ever see that again (maybe when the AMO flips)

Kinda sucking down an IPA too quickly so looking for something to do. Anyways, this is just a thinking out loud post. And I guess I should add a declaimer...obviously there's a ton more to take into account and blah blah but the similarities are striking. I was looking at the current sea-surface temperature anomaly configuration and looking (I know there are program and such which run algorithms and what not) for similar matches to previous La Nina episodes: Now there are several "matches" (1909-1910, 1949-1950, 1970-1971, 1973-1974, 1988-1989) but when assessing ensemble guidance regarding the evolution of the H5 pattern moving forward, one match that stuck out was 1909-1910: SSTA's January 1910 GEFS 8-12 day mean H5 H5 anomalies January 1910 Now I don't know what snowfall was like that month or storminess (FWIW, it was a subpar season)

@ORH_wxman do you know where they moved all the historical snowfall records for the major climo places? I cringe b/c of the stupid debacle in the mid 90's through early 2000's with the records, but I at leave have some of those gaps filled in from what you've provided over the years.

Devers DeBrusk

warm enough

Exactly why I made the post I made I don't think Allan meant to target New England in his tweet haha

I'll take my chances with that. The look verbatim too would favor trough axis more into the Southeast as opposed to farther west. Would help with getting any digging system to go negatively tilted as it digs into the region. Much better then recent crap luck of having all this occur more into the Mississippi Valley.

We can still get snow threats here with above-average 2M temps in January and February. Obviously as you go towards NYC latitude and points south your chances decrease drastically. Also, keep in mind with using 2M temp maps (in this case is) are the anomalies being driven by well above-average overnight temps or daytime temps?

Here's 18z NAM bufkit for ORH Friday. That's not too bad looking for a period of light-to-moderate snow.

Shortwave tracks pretty much overhead. Quite unstable too.

Haven't we had periods in the past where the atmospheric state became totally opposite of the oceanic state for a time and the result was an active pattern with big storm potential? Given the pathetic luck we've been having with this Nina-state maybe having an atmospheric state Nino-like will work to our advantage.

Something will hopefully pan out so we don't have to keep staring at bare ground with dry Arctic blasts every few weeks.

I don't disagree with that at all. There is absolutely nothing wrong with discussion. I mean everyone has their different motives, some just love discussing and assessing the potential, some just want the big storm, and some really want to learn more and understand the "why this happened and why this didn't happen". It's just more of the kickback that happens. When someone starts posting thoughts/opinions (whether backed with data or not) that goes against the overall majority, then the discussion becomes messy and is it really discussion anymore?

This is my point! There have been dozens and dozens and dozens of posts the last 2-3 years with "[INSERT PERIOD] looks promising", "models look promising", "ensembles look promising". Every shortwave that shows up on guidance 5-10 days out always seems to be "promising" but what have we to show for it? If every single shortwave and signs of a trough keep getting labeled "interesting" eventually the word just means nothing.

At this juncture, pretty soon we'll be looking into March for these "potential's" and then all of a sudden, one model run will start showing 80's on the 384-hour prog and everyone will be like, "WTF did winter go"?

Our best potential/storm will probably end up coming from a clipper diving southeast out of Canada and developing south of Long Island.

I still say we need to see significant changes to the pattern over Russia/Asia with regards to jet stream structure/evolution there before we see any meaningful changes occur within the Pacific. Everytime we start to see models "look" favorable going out past 6-7+ days, as we get closer, we just revert back to the same background state. We need things to change in a big way. Otherwise its just the same themed crap of horrible antecedent airmasses then bitterly cold/dry behind the system and then rinse and repeat when it's time for the next one. This isn't going to change until there is a drastic overhaul somewhere and for something to spark that overhaul.

Yeah great point. For La Nina's the focus was on 120°W to 170°W for anomalies. Since EL Nino's tend to incorporate a larger swath of anomalies and also more into the N1.2 zone, may have to extend analysis through entire ENSO zone (180° to 80°W) and if core anomalies 160-180 call that West-Based, 160-120 Basin Wide, and 120-80 East-Based

I will definitely check that out! I'll admit...I don't really understand modoki events and what really classifies an event as modoki. I've read around a bit but find differing opinions. Something I need to look into more. I know you've highlighted them in the past so I'll go back through some of your posts.

IDK...I think this can go either way but I certainly can see your argument for west-based. the core of the anomalies are certainly positioned towards the western edge of the ENSO region. May have to really go back and do another look through. This may have to be approached differently then cold anomalies.

1929-1930 1958-1959 1968-1969 2004-2005 2014-2015 2009-2010 I did as basin wide 2002-2003 basin wide 1977-1978 basin wide 1957-1958 basin wide I may have to definitely look more into OLR to perhaps do a better breakdown.

Hopefully something pans out by 01/20. If not time to fire up the countdown to May 1

Well I figured may as well start working on EL Nino composites. Grabbed SSTA's for all EL Nino's to try and break down into west-based, basin-wide, and east-based. I found this much more challenging then with La Nina's. The breakdown I came up with was West-based: 5-events Basin-wide: 25-events East-based: 10-events One thing I noticed was alot of variance in SSTA's across the north-central Pacific and just west off the West Coast. I don't recall such variance with La Nina, but I never saved the SSTA composites for Nina's so I have to go back and do that. But given this I think I may try to also take a focus on SSTA's outside of the ENSO region when assessing EL Nino events