weatherwiz

summer back broke we depressed

Well we now have Hilary. Completely bypassed TD category

Kind of feels like Christmas Day

sfc low development low and tracks were unfavorable for pushing WF north. Friday would be more favorable (unless model shift southeast with sfc low).

Instability will virtually be a product of 1) WF placement 2) Frontal timing 3) Cloud cover - although we'll likely have extensive cloud cover, but south of the warm front rich theta-e air will compensate quite a bit. I'd also watch for lapse rates to be a bit steeper than modeled, however, extensive clouds and precip. may yield enough latent heat to keep them from steepening.

I am going to chug my cocoa and close my eyes and my body temp will rise so fast I can pretend it's from the hot, high-angled sun beaming down on me.

I'm caving and making hot cocoa

GFS with a nice PRE into the Southwest this weekend

Timing is a big question as is warm front progression, however, that is a fairly robust trough digging in with significant shortwave forcing. Dynamics are quite robust for this time of year with 50+ knots of bulk shear. If that warm front is able to penetrate inland (which based on SLP track/development I would think it should) and we get into the richer theta-e air there would be some severe potential.

I have this book that's about historical Connecticut tornadoes (or maybe it's weather). I got it like 3-4 years ago and ever read the whole thing...something about the way it was written wasn't sitting right with me. Anyways, this was talked about. Apparently it was considered a miracle only 2 fatalities occurred during the New Britain to Coventry tornado. I think it mentioned the track deviated some but it was extremely close to a largely populated area and with the time of day the death toll could have easily been in the hundreds.

NAM is interesting for Friday

As Taylor Swift says, our midnights will becoming our afternoons

This is turning into a hot cocoa kind of day.

I got a hot coffee from Dunkin this morning instead of an ice'd coffee. Summer is broken

I got stung by several of those suckers in high school. The pain was brutal. First sting felt like a stick went through my arm.

I wonder if there will be two max areas of rainfall totals. One very close to the sfc warm front/SLP track and perhaps a second farther inland closer to the H7 warm front? Based on where the NAM/GFS are developing and tracking the sfc low it seems very hard pressed to believe the sfc warm front will ever make it to the coast, but the outer Cape I think would have the best shot.

Pretty big difference between 3km and 12km. Right along and just north of the warm front is going to get smoked with rain. That may end up being over the Sound or on Long Island through extreme southern Rhode Island and outer Cape, but there is going to be a swath of like 3-5'' of rain.

Could be a little interesting with either some tropical potential into the SW US (well remnants).

maybe the H7 warm front

Shocked much of the region is still in a marginal risk tomorrow

FWIW 12z MET came down to Earth for tomorrow. Only has high of 72 for BDL tomorrow

? I'm confused with what you're saying. The high heat never really materialized this summer and obviously time is rapidly dwindling to get high heat in here (or at least anything prolonged). But we've morphed into a typical summer pattern for these parts summarized by warm/humid weather followed by decreasing humidity when fronts move through. We will continue be in this type of pattern until the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean summer's back broke...it just means we're experiencing typical summer weather.

What's your poo-poo threshold for tomorrow? Anything under 3''?

I get what you're saying but I also think our perceptions have become very skewed over the past decade-plus. IMO, what has transpired over the past few weeks and how the upcoming stretch looks just seems like more typical summer weather for us. When we start seeing more consistent fronts with highs 60's up north and 70's elsewhere with dews 40's/lower 50's behind the fronts that's when I would consider the back breaking.

GFS prime for EML advection this upcoming weekend and early next week. Unfortunately nothing to really utilize it. Though I wonder if Monday night would have some MCS potential diving southeast out of Canada. Obviously a week out so unlikely to keep this look, but that would be an intriguing look for overnight MCS