weatherwiz

Should just rename Padre Island Tropical Landfalling Island

summer is warm no matter what...even if below-average (unless it's a BRUTAL day with clouds, rain, and 60's). winter is cold no matter what...even if above-average.

Basically a much needed soaking for them and not too much rain to yield significant flooding concerns.

I was even going to think mid 90's. I remember being super young.

I think there were one or two nights I stayed up the whole night (or at least woke up every few hours) just to see the bulletin across the screen with an update.

Was that early 2000's? I thought that was earlier...like in the late 90's. I remember though TWC and I think even local news being extremely concerned up this way. I remember TWC having the bulletins that went from top of screen down as opposed to the scroll at the bottom. That's how you knew it was some serious ****

We may be able to get some elevated activity Thursday night. This kind of sucks because all ingredients will be in place for good severe, it's just the timing of everything is all off. I don't think we can totally write off Friday yet though, especially if we can warm sector.

I’m going to make a movie called morning of the Twister. It will be about New England and twisters in the morning and two refers happening because of high dews…did anyone get that? High dews…get used to that b/c that’s what summer will be like. High dews. The goal posts definitely be shifting. Before 55 was comfy…then 60…then 65….no…no…noonooo.noo. 65+ will be common. That’s what summer will be. Get used to it, embrace it, enjoy it. It will lead to stuff. Can’t deny if you can’t supply

Were there forecasts for sun? Should have been pretty obvious with the trough and cold pool we would cloud up quick

MAybe a sneaky threat for some strong storms Monday? Still closely watching next Friday time frame too.

Pretty soon fall is going to be our new tornado season (or late summer/fall).

Wow, EF-2, even if brief if pretty damn good for these parts.

Dark clouds above but nothing on radar. Another updraft tickling me

Dews have started to drop here but were still at least in the lower 60's when I was outside. Outside is so much better when dews are higher.

Yup went outside with the dog for a bit. Nice to see a good amount of sun again.

We watch next Friday

I think there is an updraft right over my head

These setups are tough. If you're not a forecaster doing day-to-day forecasting these setups probably just go unrecognized because they aren't the "big" setups. They are also tough because it's not like they produce every time. It all comes down to just getting enough CAPE in the lowest few km combined with the right amount of shear. There really is no "threshold" either too for value. Ultimately, it's dependent on whether a convective updraft can become mature enough to utilize the ingredients. But looking at mesoanalysis this morning, you had a pocket of 150 m2s2 of 0-1km helicity combined with 100+ J of 3km CAPE. That's a pretty solid combination, especially with LCL's around 500m. Warm front probably provided enough llvl lift and inflow was drawing in from the high theta-e air.

That has been a product of weak fronts really. But overall, I don't think we've had many major severe weather events which have occurred to end heat waves or break high humidity. Sure there have been a few, but for the most part we're dealing with pretty poor lapse rates and weak shear during those stretches...or when strong fronts approach stronger shear is lacking behind the front. Setups like today or going to become more common moving forward. Anytime we have summers with above-average SST's and are surging dewpoints into the lower or mid 70's with strong troughs with great shear moving through these setups will be several times occurring.

I went to school with the meteorologist on air there in the upper left. Good dude.

Big downburst likely over Stoughton

Some pretty strong rotation there on tilt 2

Definitely need to watch southwest of Mansfield.

That actually may have been the most impressive TDS of the few thus far, at least for a scan. Threw up gr lvl 2 and looked like maybe some debris being lofted a few thousand feet into the air?