weatherwiz

100-105+ with dewpoints in the 70's. What a welcoming that would be.

I'm hoping for an active pattern as we move into the end of May/early June. Geared up to go chasing this year and even into the West...although I've had reservations about going into the Plains. It's always been a goal to go storm chasing out in the Plains but given the downhill spiral the hobby has become I don't think it's worth it. You have people who think they're above the law and blowing stop signs, red lights, making illegal turns - virtually making their own rules. Last thing I need is to get destroyed by some idiot. As much as it sucks chasing around the Northeast my friend and I don't mind it. Technically though I guess you could say we don't "chase". We aren't driving around trying to get to storms. Typically we'll pick a location where everything looks favorable and go to that spot...and once initiation happens we'll make some movement but our goal is to get to an open lot or field and good 30-45 minutes before the storms hit and enjoy it that way. Not racing 90 mph to catch storms.

We're also heading away from synoptically driven precipitation events and more convectively favored precipitation events so those long-range QPF maps don't really mean much.

It's starting to get real

So taunting....so taunting. Just loop

Once the heat comes the dews aren't too far behind.

yes good catch

I had a dream that NBM was showing a high of 98 for BDL Wednesday and 101 Thursday. I don't recall if it was specifically referencing this week but the jest of it is it's great knowing something like that isn't too far around the corner.

This is what we like to see!!!!!!!!

4 years ago today there was a Tornado Watch across parts of upstate New York into Vermont.

The pattern has potential to get very CAPE'y!!!!

I actually vaguely remember this event. This did occur right around the time of the upgrade if I'm recalling correctly...it was this event and a few others across the country which I think highlighted the super cold bias the model then had.

It does appear there is some hope for such a scenario to occur (if we indeed see a cut-off that aggressive). We'll see what happens...both Euro/GFS in general agreement for this cut-off scenario but GFS is just way more intense. I wonder too if there is a great deal of "feedback" here just because of all the convection that is likely to occur within the Plains this week. Much of this shortwave energy which ends up responsible for the cut-off stems from convection in the Plains.

This is where I think the low confidence comes in because this could be a situation where the ensembles will be useless because of the smoothing involved or maybe the OP is just too aggressive with this feature. I am leaning towards the ensembles just being useless in this scenario because if you look at the OP it's not really a consistent static (key word here) pattern. There is some deviation in the day-to-day regime. This just leads me to believe we will continue to see a pattern in which we get some pleasant days in (but will still struggle at times to reach climo) and some days which are like today. ensembles are just going to be pretty pointless for the foreseeable future just due to how chaotic the pattern is.

The pattern for the upcoming few weeks is just a giant pain in the fanny. I don't think I'd have much confidence at all in a medium/long-range forecast for the upcoming few weeks. The highest overall confidence seems to be within the West with a fairly sizeable ridge developing in the West but this may not be a long-term established ridge unlike the past few years. The bigger challenge is how the pattern evolves across the central and eastern U.S. The overall look does look omega block-ish which can be horrific for us...but there is some great uncertainty as to where the trough axis becomes established. While the upcoming look may be unseasonably cool with clouds/precip chances we can't totally rule out a scenario where we get some over-the-top warmth coming in from Canada. Maybe another scenario upcoming where NNE bakes while SNE is cool/cloudy.

Today was pure COC. Nothing better than waking up to pure COC to kick off May.

Happy May!!!

HAPPY MAY 1!!!!!

We just gotta have patience

45 minutes!!!

56 minutes until severe season

It’s Stein season

I’m so excited!!! It’s like New Year’s. I’m going to make a ball and drop it at midnight

Great day. Could have been like 7F warmer but lovely day…went to East Rock Brewing and now at Two Roads sitting outside.

It is a bit puzzling. Thus far there has been a 4” hail report and a handful of 2”+ reports but majority are 1-1.75”.