weatherwiz

and now the suns out

Just went from nothing to a crazy downpour in less a second.

Yeah early crap like this can certainly screw up things later on...we know that very well The key is going to be able to remove any CIN in the wake of this activity. Thankfully the airmass is pretty moist so it won't take much in the way of breaks of sun to make this happen. Have to watch how the lapse rates recover too...this activity will weaken them some, but models do increase them a bit later this afternoon. Shear increases as well. There is a very diffuse boundary though down your way with theta-e ridge in place so I would think there will be at least some isolated re-development this afternoon.

Agreed. Always a bit skeptical with those but there does seem to be support for that idea.

We're really in a crap spot with this system. Removed from the better dynamics and forcing and like you said...just too much junk around. A bit intrigued with tonight though with the strengthening LLJ and a little plume of steep lapse rates. IMO for tomorrow though, the marginal risk should be removed or even shifted much farther west. Looks like a warm bubble aloft and forcing seems quite weak tomorrow.

Always down for one of those.

yup... but tonight though could be pretty interesting. Could see some nasty storms if that cluster verifies tonight.

Looks like we may have some capping issues tomorrow

Pretty much Unless you're lucky enough to be one of the hits and not misses

The HRRR does have a cluster moving SW to NE across the region overnight. Could be some truth to that. Nose of nocturnal increase of the LLJ and a bit of a theta-e ridge over the region.

Majority of activity is going to be to our west and southwest, but we'll see hit-and-miss storms around today. Flash flooding could be a bit of an issue given weak shear and slow movement of storms. Strongest storms could produce some localized damaging wind gusts. Could see some nasty stuff down across SE PA/NJ/DE later on.

HRRR not impressed with tomorrow. Has a batch of early action center/northern sections and nothing south. Keeps everything west.

Going to happen Tuesday too…except they be rotating

I hate the casino

Noticing a bunch of mushrooms going in the yard. @Ginx snewxare they poisonous for dogs?

@dendrite may be playing Twister with the chickens Tuesday and I don't mean the Twister with the mat

I miss West Hartford

Going to have to watch central New England Tuesday perhaps

Lift is rather weak and mostly just southwest

Finally got our marginal risk for tomorrow

I kinda figured it was still there From the original image it looked like it was colder than average (should have zoomed in)

Pretty crazy how much above-average the waters are in the northern Atlantic. Also what's going on with the Gulf Stream

Which has eroded quickly

TCU’s playing peek-a-boo with the low cloud deck

It's a deluge now