weatherwiz

for NAO? I thought we wanted east-based -NAO? With west-based -NAO you run the risk of above-average heights ticking New England which is why if you look at some -NAO composites parts of Maine actually see above-average temperatures. West based also keeps the brunt of the colder airmass into the upper-Midwest with a storm track west of us. gotcha...thanks or this information! ughhh one of these days I can get back into this stuff.

The other big player here is QBO structure...I wish Sam Lillo still posted here but he did some amazing work with (I am pretty certain he developed this) the MQI. The research showed strong correlation to structure/SSW potential and influences on the stratosphere and upper troposphere. Speaking of ozone...I've wanted to look into this but is it possible all that smoke from the wildfires this summer/fall could play a big factor into the stratosphere and how it evolves...like doesn't smoke impact ozone production?

certainly don't disagree yeah and that SE ridge I feel like buckers things up b/c it shifts the trough axis west and we get these huggers or inland runners.

the best kind!

If it does happen I don't think it will be as intense as shown for these areas...it would be at the tail beginning of an organizing CCB. but given the thermal boundary we will be dealing with fronto should be pretty sick. This could do real well in northeast MA/southern NH.

SSW coming up? What/how WSI package do you subscribe too for all these cool extra things? Have WSI model lab from school but that just has a few things.

oh wow...I wonder if the Euro/NAM are kinda onto something. The evolution of the mlvls and llvls are quite impressive and makes sense given how the northern/southern stream phase. The GFS seems a bit dry on the backside...ulvl dynamics are pretty impressive. I would think a hefty CCB could materialize rather quickly. Not sure it impacts as far south as Euro/NAM show but the dynamics seem to support this.

I could always start one for the fish in the Atlantic

Wow ME must have been pounded...over 100K w/o power

kinda bummed about the severe weather aspect of this. I thought we would see much more in the way of wind damage, especially across the Delmarva region.

Intrigued on what that line of t'storms southwest of CT does as it gets into the state. Good amount of lightning with it and instability looks to continue building into the state...also have stronger LLJ over the state

yes, especially this year when it hasn't happened very often

THUNDER AT BDL!!!!!!!!

Yeah even the latest HRRR shows another burst of winds like 23z-01z down this way

I'm surprised they have people out right now. Power outages actually down to below 30K now.

The HRRR actually weakens the line relatively quickly into CT though maybe some weak supercells with the broken line? Just have to see how much instability we can penetrate in

Almost 40K now in CT w/o power.

The warm front progression for a SLP track just west of us is pretty impressive IMO. I wonder if the rapid pressure drop is helping to accelerate the warm front?

New London County being hit hardest with power outages. Just under 10K there and just under 29K across the state

This rides right up along the line like a horse galloping the trails in the colonial days

While a broad meso rotation is not bad looking

was hoping the TOR would pass over DOV but looks just NW. Was hoping for an opportunity to see +FC

Another TOR. I think we'll see an MCD for this area by 3:30. MCD will say tornado watch possible

bring an umbrella...you could probably fly

Was just going to say we're gusting 50+ here in Branford...Tweet airport at 35 G53 last hourly obv