weatherwiz

Here is December 1983 (ESOI value -3.5 which is lowest Dec value on record). Does not seem to fit the mold which is above-average EPAC below-average WPAC Here is December 1999 (ESOI values 2.4 which is highest Dec value on record). This seems to fit better (above-average EPAC below-average WPAC)

There is something that is baffling me. I've been doing composites for Sea-level Pressure Anomalies and exploring the SOI and moreso the Equatorial SOI. La Nina's result in +ESOI values with higher than usual pressure in the eastern Pacific and lower than usual pressure in the western Pacific. Conversely, the opposite is true during EL Nino periods. In order to produce some illustrations to see this visually, I took the top 5 positive/negative ESOI values for December. The left is during Nina's and the right is during Nino's. I am not seeing an opposite composite. Am I interpreting something wrong? Focusing on the wrong region (I'm focusing on equator, however, it appears there may be a bit of a correlation look closer to 30N):

Thunder!!!!!!!!!!

Does anyone know if there is a dataset for the Equatorial SOI? I find alot of literature on it, but can't seem to find a dataset.

hmmm interesting feature over Pawling, NY

I wish (accurate) QBO data existed much farther back

I believe there is some sort of correlation between the fall-months and winter months, however, I think the biggest issue is correlations are trying to be tied into specific variables (temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies) as opposed to pattern structures and evolution. We all get excited when we see specific pattern regimes which have a strong correlation to producing weather events, however, I think sometimes the excited gets too overstated. Re-analysis is extremely helpful in that you can find 10-big events and come up with a pattern correlation, but I think the one thing we are lacking quite a bit in is with "misses". The KU books get into these which is fantastic, but I think outside of this book there really isn't a focus on these. You could get a pattern which produced 2 big storms before and we know this because we have the events to do reanalysis on, but how many times has that pattern regime occurred with nothing happening? Perhaps something exists out there but I wish there was a way to measure the # of storms per winter...now you would have to come up with some definitions and set parameters but something like this, IMO could add tremendous value to long-range forecasting and even medium-range forecasting.

It even gets some SBCAPE in here at times!

Remember the silly drought talk drought lol

I'm waiting for one of these years for a flock of geese flying south to get caught up in the circulation and become a TDS

Looks like a brief TDS too

The line was getting kinky and now we gotta TOR

Let's QLCS spin-up Wisconsin style

Nice wind on the leading edge

Really won't take much to draw down some solid gusts (55-65 mph) in that environment. DCAPE too ~500 J/KG so any heavier convective elements are going to yield a wild few minutes for some

There are going to be some localized 5-6'' rainfall totals with this right along a narrow corridor from like SE CT through NE CT into NE MA, SE NH, and into ME.

We need a TDWR at BDL.

Another smudge east and I'll be tickled by the marginal risk

nah I don't think your standards are subjective. I mean at the end of the day was never an impressive setup in terms of wind or even convective potential...your typical run-of-the mill fall-type event. I just like these events because they are so dynamic and there are so many processes involved. But I do think sometimes there is a standard that anytime a thread is made for convection it just assumes there is hype for a monster event or if it isn't a monster setup it isn't worth it. I had originally thought the biggest wind potential with this would be associated with a low topped line of convection, not necessarily synoptic. I didn't think the warm sector was going to be large enough. But wind potential is definitely held back given the signal for heavier rain as we'll really stabilize the boundary-layer. If we ever want to see a big widespread event in these setups we need pretty steep low-level lapse rates which of course are absent here.

I think SE CT through RI and far SE MA stand a chance for some 45-55 mph gusts and then coastal Maine. The rain (totals) signal definitely increased the past 12-hours...but looking back I think the signals were slowly pointing to this happening

No tree left behind

Yeah this event was well modeled a week-plus out. Should have a few shots for some precip (even some flakes in the hills as dendrite mentioned earlier) next week as the closed upper-low over eastern Canada swings a series of fronts through. May actually see a bit of a lull in active weather for a period after next week. Final few weeks of the months who the heck knows...lots of signals though to see consistent deep closed off lows in the East.

TORs galore in Wisconsin. Precursor to tomorrow

ORH I think is pretty centralized for the majority. I'm definitely down...as long as it is a weekend too.

Should see some widespread 35-45+ mph gusts with that line tomorrow night. I bet we see the marginal expanded east. Could see a few embedded severe gusts