Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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That dry slot looks damaging Doubt we get an amped up storm which would mean dry slot. If we get an amped phaser then game on for the OV ie cutter city.
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Is that the Nina looks that several have stated January is evolving towards? Ie ridge N of Hawaii extending towards the Aleutians and West Coast trof?
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Amazing. That block is reminiscent of the epic NAO blocks we saw at range last year that kept fading. This will be the look that holds tho and probably ends up being even stronger lol. Block near Scandinavia isnt bad but need that to move into the NAO region.
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6z GFS on board. Only 9 days away. Plenty of time to trend better. Besides what could possibly go wrong in 9 days when we are dealing with a hostile Pac and trying to work with tiny windows of opportunity?
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Positive signs today...jumpers please step back from the ledge.
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I do need a new lens script, so you're not wrong. I saw Jan 6 gfs surface had a low flare up along a front and create a wide stripe.of snow in the interior then saw the euro a day later showed similar farther S. Could see how that resembles the late Jan 25-26 look. Overall pattern tho looks like we are backing into that window and will require some much needed luck.
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Been at work but quick glance LR on GfS and Euro have that January 87 feel. That is all.
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Agree with this. Which is why I'm taking the GEFS snowfall means later in the LR with a grain of salt. All ens means are strengthening and anchoring the central PAC ridge and any sign of a -AO appears transient and more a function of the PV wobbling around the HL. Like you said, plenty of time but the looks we are seeing certainly arent giving me a warm fuzzy feeling right now. Normally I would say meh its post 240 hours but when the ens are unanimous irt specific features....
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I'm not seeing that. Better look around 300hrs with the PV setting up as a 50/50. OP at range tho....futile analysis.
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Look at this loop...the SE ridge is about to go apesh!t and the trof out West is anchoring in.
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Opposite actually. PNA ridge we had for a window gets squashed and a SE ridge is showing up. Granted it is an op run and at range but there was no improvement....quite the opposite.
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Talk about a role reversal....how about a high coming out of the GOM attacking a banana low anchored over the NE. Cant say I've seen anything like that anytime recently
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US models are caving rapidly. Last year extended range had epic looks and they never materialized until March and stayed 10 days+ out all winter. This season we get poor looks and they continue looking more bleak and getting closer in time and hang on longer in the LR. Funny how that works. Tuning up the lawnmower today. Maybe reverse psychology can help lol.
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Dude that is a whack pattern developing between Jan 3-8. Saw one run with the FL snowcane, another with a SLP in the western GOM dive SE and hit Jamaica, a bomb cyclone, a low 75 miles.east of Delmarva track WNW and end up west of Philly 6 hours later, etc. If there is going to be a convoluted surprise that may be the period. Like Bob said, doubt we will be tracking a particular threat....but something might pop under the radar in the short/mid range. Some fun solutions popping up tho.
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Anyone glance at the HH GFS? Has a 936 low at the benchmark lol.
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HH GFS says Merry Christmas with a bomb cyclone : Gets down to 936.....well that was fun lol.
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Amazing, just 2 days ago several here had punted the first 3 weeks of January.
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Also this is an op run at LR and there is alot of indecision among ens members as to where the PV ends up...Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, back towards W Canada. TBD. I would take that location tho on the op.
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Minus 40s just N of the US/Canada border and above 40s in this region. Gradient.
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Loving the 276hr gfs coastal off the Delmarva that jumps to West of Philly by 282 lol
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Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, and Happy Holidays to all!
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I really enjoyed the HH GFS at 288 that takes a low in the Western Gulf and dives it straight Southeast into Jamaica!!
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Bingo...actually day 9 has a lp attacking a departing hp. Ends up cutting but different look that some of the gloom doom and SHUTOUT talks
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Day 10 Euro op looks........interesting.
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There is a +PNA at 240 on the 18z GEFS, so there's that.
