Ralph Wiggum

What is the projected date where the -NAO takes over? Feels like we have been +NAO for longer than a 10-day stretch from your op.

St Patrick's Day and Easter will rock! That is, if the progression happens as some are suggesting. Grass is shooting up here past few days and weeds sprouting. Might be time for the mower and weedwhacker.

Would be nice to track some 60 degree temps too over the next 6 weeks or so for some Wiggum snows. 93% success rate when the temp hits 60 in Doylestown between waning days of Dec thru Valentines Day we see some snow within the next 5 days following. This pattern is boring quite honestly. I thought the Pac puke pattern would be transient and the Jan 6 period would be the end of it. Looks like I am going to fail on the transient look as signs point to the puke redeveloping with the central Pac ridge anchoring and driving things downstream. But who knows really? These same ens did this last year in the LR promising an epic pattern only to keep it 2 weeks away until March.

Just to add to this and I am by no means an expert on the solar min or the QBO but in the small amount of research and reading on the subject, there is generally a lag time. So while the chart.you posted may in fact fit the look after solar min, keep in mind we arent forecast to arrive there until April-ish which if you factor in lag time makes that map more probable for winter 20-21 and not the current season. Right now we need to start seeing blocking in the NAO and AO regions to counter that massive central Pac ridge which is driving the pattern downstream into the US. A west coast trof / -pna with a developing SE ridge and no ao/nao help is one of the worst looks we can get. Let's hope in a few weeks things start to progress.

If you loop the ens means that central Pac ridge looks like the storm on Jupiter. It never moves.

The Pat's are a shadow of their former selves. Wouldnt be surprised to see them make one more run this postseason before Brady retires but I think the passing of the torch is underway.

Well now, Cowboys it is!!

Not sure who I enjoyed watching get eliminated more today....Mersky or the Cowboys

Awww, what happened to Mersky? I was just putting the popcorn in the micro.

That looks almost nothing like the pattern rolling forward on the ens means. Huge Pac ridge N of Hawaii is the dealbreaker. We can still get lucky and back into some snow as prime climo nears, but if the means looks hold, we will be struggling to see any 'sustained' wintry patterns. Like I mentioned a while back, likely a roller coaster/topsy turvy winter with no real sustained + or - but somehow we will end up around avg or just above in snowfall by the end of the season.

Quick, someone post a few clown maps to lighten the mood in here.

Most depressing run of the year. The se ridge looks immovable and the nao is super positive January thaw after our MECS

Like the GEPS ?

Ooops....taking the walk of shame off into the horizon......

@Ji This is not a suppressed look. Unless you meant for NYC :

While likely partially out to lunch, the ICON is rolling the ridge East in lieu of the amplifying -PNA. I'll save surface extrapolation for the die hards

SE Ridge will increase as lead times shrink as has been common with the -PNA at 8+ day leads or the cold push/trof wont be quite as pronounced. As lead times shrink we will probably see a track close to the coast at around 5 day leads. Like I said "I doubt we get an amped up storm" and we should hope not. As it looks now, plenty of wiggle room, right? I agree with your analysis of the current looks. But as we get within 84 hours we are going to be concerned about a cutter and hoping for a more sheared out wave. Just my thoughts.

12z should give us some clarity on the situation /s

That dry slot looks damaging Doubt we get an amped up storm which would mean dry slot. If we get an amped phaser then game on for the OV ie cutter city.

Is that the Nina looks that several have stated January is evolving towards? Ie ridge N of Hawaii extending towards the Aleutians and West Coast trof?

Amazing. That block is reminiscent of the epic NAO blocks we saw at range last year that kept fading. This will be the look that holds tho and probably ends up being even stronger lol. Block near Scandinavia isnt bad but need that to move into the NAO region.

6z GFS on board. Only 9 days away. Plenty of time to trend better. Besides what could possibly go wrong in 9 days when we are dealing with a hostile Pac and trying to work with tiny windows of opportunity?

Positive signs today...jumpers please step back from the ledge.

I do need a new lens script, so you're not wrong. I saw Jan 6 gfs surface had a low flare up along a front and create a wide stripe.of snow in the interior then saw the euro a day later showed similar farther S. Could see how that resembles the late Jan 25-26 look. Overall pattern tho looks like we are backing into that window and will require some much needed luck.

Been at work but quick glance LR on GfS and Euro have that January 87 feel. That is all.