Jump to content

Ralph Wiggum

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,099

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    The SPV/TPV outlook is nearly impossible to forecast. However, the SPV looks to get pummeled with a squeeze (almost splits!) and that is under 240 hours so it may have some credence. If recent past history from Nov is any indictation, that *should* have some effect on the TPV. We saw last month a similar setup where the TPV was trying to anchor and solidify but when the same SPV beatdown came along it actually caused the TPV to split. There were actually 3 lobes at one point iirc.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Mesos still looking good for some snow squalls tomorrow evening as a trof swings thru the region. Northern areas favored. Any of those could drop a quick localized c-1"
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Only thing that could bring that N is if the cutoff slowed down and stalled long enough before being well East of FL so that a different piece of upstream energy could pick it up. But with the ridge at h5 separating the jets that is unlikely as well. And even if that happened, it probably would be a warmish system anyway unless it pulled a Jan 25, 2000. This one appears DOA unfortunately with too much going against it.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Looks like signs of a split flow returning off the West Coast. Love that look on a means.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Just shot up to 32...assuming we are done with any additional frozen here for this one. Temp should continue to tick up overnight.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Just dropped to 30 here. Ice starting to coat everything. Eta: very light breeze out of the NE
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    If an area received a trace of snow every day for 2 months straight and that was it for the entire winter, how would that be tallied up? Is there a formula for how many traces make a tenth of an inch or something along those lines?
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Temp dropped to 31 here. Ice accumulating on cars, trees, and almost broke my neck on our new deck which is now ice covered. I would call it a 'glaze'. Not fit for man nor beast....dogs took one look and turned around back inside.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    There have certainly been times in the past where we were tracking a southern gulf low that never has a catalyst to take it North only to have the stj energy slow down and get picked up by a renegade northern jet shortwave. Doubt it happens here but who knows.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Farther N and the favored Valley areas will be more of a concern. Some of the mesos actually have it cooling back to below freezing overnight in spots.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    I know the TPV anchored near Hudson's Bay is decent for cold as it can keep the trof in the GL, OV, NE and into the N Mid Atl. Doesnt that also 'usually' equate to a cold/dry pattern? I also tend to think clipper type pattern as well.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    We have been on the same page regarding the temps and the pac puke being brief. You are not alone.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    In layman's terms it's the el nino/la nina equivalent of the Indian Ocean. Eta: ninja'd by @WxUSAF
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    This was progged to drive into Pitt even Buffalo on guidance just a few days ago so to say this has merely ticked S is an understatement. Some areas are going to wake up to an icy sleety mess Tuesday AM. NAM 3K RGEM HRDPS
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    10m wind vectors on mesos pivoting to a NEasterly component lending credence to there being a surface wave to the east helping to lock in the cold.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    This is happening mostly overnight Monday fyi so Tuesday early will be a mess in many areas in the Interior and favored areas that hang on to the cold longer.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    RGEM, HRDPS, and 3k NAM all take the slp under us now for this event which is a new development. ICON does too but not counting global guidance. Mesos are precariously close to being a major ice event in the N part of my county (Bucks). Ticking closer and closer.....and colder....and Souther
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    That damn ridge N of Hawaii killed us last year and it returns and looks to have staying power on the ens. Still somewhat skeptical of D10+ but agreed with the concern.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Red flags raised?
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    How are people punting thru the last week of January?
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Jan 2016....warmup.right after. It happens when you get an Archambault event and they are not easy to forecast. The coming weekend storm looks to be in that category as the NAO ridge moves around. I would take a decent snowstorm even if it meant sacrificing the pattern for a week or so. I'm not in the camp that the PAC puke sticks around thru mid January as I have seen touted around in other forums. By Jan 1 the return to a better pattern should be well underway.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Is it ever wrong tho? Wait, dont answer that
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Looks like yesterday's Euro ... GFS never goes neg tilt. We are going to be dealing with coastal vs suppression most of the week from run to run
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    RGEM is colder and remains below freezing majority of the event. Thump is non existent but signaling a major icing event with the 2nd wave interior.
×
×
  • Create New...