Ralph Wiggum

Define "most" because we only have a few regular posters and aside from that one guy in Monmouth County , the regulars are pretty much in sync with the favorable pattern tellies and the background state that is emerging.

Every year. These events are very common and generally how the area especially in and around the city, reach their seasonal averages. All snow events are not all that common here tbh. We have been spoiled in general.

Agreed Bob. This has the makings of a muted and transient moderation as the pattern reloads. We are likely going to see this every so often this winter, tho overall I do believe we will avg colder than normal, so any panic shouldn't be warranted at this point. Now if this PAC puke had staying power thru the waning days of Dec into early Jan and we needed to waste an additional 10-12 days reestablishing the cold in Canada then another 5 days to a week to deliver said cold into the lower 48, then frustration would certainly be warranted. I dont think you nor I nor anyone else that posts in this forum is seeing such a thing at this time.

Snow to sleet to rain Monday maybe some light accums before the change. Then maybe some snow squalls Wednesday behind the system....blustery and cold.

Maybe some snow squalls Wednesday behind the system.

The OG. Youre taking me back! Anyone do the mirc thing on #neweather with Ian, Marcus, and I (SteveB)? I think Randy eventually joined us...and a bunch from the NE crew.

I dont doubt it. We used to have the dreaded January Thaw....and that was a legit real thing. We could count on it almost every single year. This appears no different.

Should be a period of moderation coming between middle of next week and the last few days of the month. Not completely sold on a full blown and extended torch but yes we were just discussing this someqhere else irt how we cant get both the Atl and Pac sides to play nice together for the last almost decade it seems. We can still score events with just one side working but it is usually something that shows up on guidance under 4 days. This current pattern and where we may be headed should be viewed cautiously as models are flipping around with forecast looks under 5 days lately. Nailing down the pattern developments past day 8 so far this year has been a very low confidence venture with what seems to be complete 180s at times irt key teleconnections. The Pac specifically has hinted at west coast troffing only to see monster EPO ridges appear a few times already. All signs do appear headed for some moderation but I'm not completely sold on it. These torch looks have been muted and pushed back time and time again thus far.

So are you punting December? Crazy how we get a nice looking AO/NAO combo then the Pac craps the bed and wastes it. Hopefully that AO/NAO tanking is a background state developing for JFM. Are the ens losing the Aleutian low and 50/50 looks as well down the road?

And one big HP center quickly pulling away

Typical winter progression on americanwx.... 8am - LR thread becomes a super thread and is labeled "hot topic" as people are waking up and posting about the great overnight trends 11:25am - Banter thread becomes busy and is now labeled "hot topic" as the 12z runs back off of what the overnight runs showed Inevitable 2pm - Panic Room thread labeled as "hot topic" 4pm - discobs thread becomes "hot topic" as people start posting about the deluge of rain 5:20pm - LR thread has 40 new posts in 10 mins about how the 18z runs are showing some hope

At least once so far this month.

Should be a decent test of the LR op from the "new and improved" GFS. The GFS has been signaling this threat window consistently in one form or another nearly every single run essentially since it has gotten in range. Other guidance has the stj disturbance but nowhere near the consistent appearance of the GFS. In years past many will vouch for this....the old GFS would stick to its guns firmly 8 out of 10 times and we would say "it has been the most consistent" and side with this model...I've certainly been guilty. Then all of a sudden at like Day 6 or 5 it would just drop the threat completely. Sometimes it came back as a minor event, but most of the time ended uneventfully. Should be interesting to see if that issue has been resolved and if the new GFS might have a nose for actually sniffing these threats out. If this were 2 or 3years ago I think if we were presented with the Euro and the GFS irt Dec 22 most of us would hug the GFS but have a feeling which model would be more likely to verify. Both families have undergone extensive upgrades over the past couple of years and each is a shell of its former self with new intricacies and biases. I'm watching with fevered interest and am really curious to see how this LR model war plays out. I'm tempted to think recent history repeats and the meh euro look gets muted/delayed but past history with the old GFS tells me it will cave. I'm stuck in the middle for now as both scenarios have some support.

Just to show how futile it is to look at an op that far out in range (even tho I am for kicks and giggles only), you gotta love the 6 closed LP contours off the coast. Take your pick. Again, resolution gets cut at this range but just funny to see.

^^^this We take any chance we get as they come and sacrificing a good setup for something down the line....no thanks.

That's a different look. Total non phase yet isnt a straight slider either. Trying to prove me wrong (above) that the middle road solution would be a stretch.

It probably wouldn't take much separation with the NAO trying to build-in to force things South. The ens spread between sliders and cutters verifies this. As many have alluded to, best case is a thump to meh scenario. The direct hit/in between look is unlikely. Plenty of chances moving forward though. I feel like we have been tracking for well over a month already and it isnt mid December just yet. I know there isnt a whole lot to show for it but we are off to an early start and the recent years' Dec fail patterns are non existent. Give us chances....we will score.

GEFS took a notable step back irt this threat window. Less spacing between the stj and the PV and almost a clear phase on the means. Mslp plots have not a single lp near the coast...clustering over the OV. Has the GFS ens family taken over the role of Dr No in recent times?

Just wrapped up here at .9"

Best rates of the event currently. Marshmallows falling from the sky. Around .8" so far.

You are in a better spot than us in central Bucks...if guidance is right with the banding.

Strongly agree. Best convergence seems to be right over the Del River into NJ so maybe if there is banding it sets up there. Classic cold chasing rain. Unfortunately the cold push looks stronger than originally modeled and may chase the precip out quicker. Next week looks interesting on guidance

HL blocking that appears to be well-timed may end being the saving grace with this particular threat. Like many of us often allude to, we dont need an anchored blocking look for weeks at a time. Nice window next week for something.

Most guidance is the c-2" or 3" deal with usual Canadian models ramping up the banding with a stripe of 5-10" over SE PA and NJ. Unfortunately for snow lovers the canadian models are usually not accurate irt snowfall amounts. With that said tho, need to see if the banding shown on those models is consistent among other mesos today.

Looks like a stripe of c-2" through SE PA for this one is the consensus among guidance. Accums will struggle with the 2 mild days ahead of the system and low precip rates generally.