Ralph Wiggum

6z icon center of lp was off Maine coast at 12z it is on the central va/NC border. Just a minor change lol. Eta: to be fair it looks like waves on a front rather than 1 tightly wound lp areas thus why seeing the lp keeping shifting around

Latest ICON is a mess up here Saturday Sunday. 2m temp teeters between 29-32 much of the event and only briefly gets to 33 or 34 at best. CAD continues to get more pronounced as we get closer.

Ok so maybe we dont hit an 'epic pattern' when all is said and done. Who knows? But I will say this....the PAC puke pattern is gone, many of us just had snow less than 5 days ago, we are tracking more light snow for Thurs PM into Friday, then another event being tracked for the weekend. Things could be alot worse and I caution people to not get overly invested in the LR pattern stuff at this point for many reasons but the most obvious one is that you are going to miss out on actual winter weather that we have going on in front of us right now. Is it perfect? No. But when is it wall to wall perfection honestly? I said it before and will echo it again....searching epic unicorn patterns in the extended LR is overrated. I realize this is some people's forte and that is respected but for avg Joe like me and many of us we really are genuinely only concerned with actual weather production in the current or short range. And that's not to say I never look LR because I do but I learn something new everyday and I have learned that tempering expectations while being cautiously optimistic is the way to go for myself anyway. Here's hoping for many snowy days for all of us. Cheers!

Doesnt look horrible to me. 500mb anomalies maps still separate thru 84. Yeah it didnt keep trending and maybe remained the same with any minor changes looking more like noise to me. CAD and HP placement looks slightly better at the surface tho. Also of note the last 3 frames of this run looped actually have lp moving due E or slightly S of due East. Not a horrible setup I've seen much worse.

Instigate much? I've backed off the LR stuff for now it has been unreliable in general and you know this. Didnt even look at the ops at range tbh until this was posted. But no I dont like this look at all. I sense some concerns and cracks in your armor starting to surface regarding the epic pattern change. I'm not worried about it.

Worked before so why not?

Euro took another step in the right direction at 500mb. Ridge out west looks lightly more progressive while separation between jets is evident. With that said euro is 6-8" up here and that extends east thru about NYC with a sharp cutoff to nearly 0 at Asbury Park. Most of PA sees snow but far NW burbs cash in with a MECS. GEFS also look solid FWIW with a bit more than half of the members showing significant snow up this way.

0z guidance just took a big step in joining the 12z ukmet in trying to bring the Sunday storm back to frozen farther S and E. Separation between jet streams and not the massive wrapped up phased cutter looks anymore. Looks like a far NW burbs MECS for now but if the changes continue I95 might be right back in the game over the next couple of days.

Cmc joined the party

Slp over Pitt at 18z now over nw SC at 0z lol.

Divorce of jet streams between runs

Gfs is big change h5 separation city

That was my most 'epic' storm of the entire winter season. Puked marshmallows with thunder for several hours. Lost a few utility poles outside from weight bearing trees snapping.

I'm with you. I havent punted nor cancelled....I am still optimistic. Just feeling frustration here. Just a few days ago we were looking at a HECS for Sunday with no end in sight. And like a light switch now rain and the LR prophets are saying 'just a little longer than expected for the change'. Been hearing and reading that since Christmas. We can only delay this a little bit longer. LR now has nothing thru the end of January....cold rains. Then bitterly cold and dry entering Feb. Obviously that can and will change one way or another but again, just frustrating being teased with HECS and 'epic looks' but not getting anything to produce. I'm confident this streak will break sooner than later but damn this is agonizing. In the meantime im going to post less and just focus short range so I'm not pissing anyone off.

What year? And can u define 'epic'? Tia

Can you describe the clown ? Silly goofball clown like Bozo or a buzzkill creeper like Pennywise?

Touche Well played sir

If there were a recent winter where we were hoping to cash in and go above climo with a few big storms in like a 10 days stretch this is the winter. TPV nearby, active stj, current sustained epo ridge. Like I posted in my outlook even without a sustained neg NAO we can cash in with a transient one if timing works out. Sustained and record SD is all well and good but its more about timing the teleconnections properly.

Disagree irt sun angle. See last March for example late month. Next day full sunshine sure but it can snow and pile up quickly still thru early April during the day.

Pitchers and catchers 3 and a half weeks. Sun angle overrated.

The pattern is changing....the cutters are cutting farther West now. Thanks MJO. So with that said it seems there is quite a bit of confidence that it locks in as a sustained neg NAO. Seems to contradict and I dont mean you or anyone personally. I would take the neg NAO unicorn with a grain of salt still until it is fully established. That's just my amateur conservative approach. I'm sure I'm wrong and way off base.

Remember a few days ago when guidance showed DC getting 40"+ for a few runs for Sunday? Ahh, the good old days.

FWIW I do still believe I95 will cash in at least once BUT I think it will end up later in Feb as the hopefully semi-permanent neg NAO wanes. It may require some painful patience so it is what it is.

Far n and w will do very well