Ralph Wiggum

EPO ridge in Western Canada is pouring cold in (follow the lines from the Arctic Circle into the Plains) then the flow continues around the bottom of the trof in the East which is the PV anchored over Greenland. With no ridging in the N Atl the flow is fast/progressive with nothing to buckle and slow it down which again, this is a smoothed means but implies a general cold and fast flow with no big storm signal. Of course we could get a clipper out of that look so maybe not bone dry but not a big storm look.

Not that it matters on a smoothed over means 6 weeks out but verbatim that is a cold / dry look and very progressive with no slowing mechanism in the Atl. The Pac and Atl dont like playing nice together anymore.

Agree with this. Which is why I'm taking the GEFS snowfall means later in the LR with a grain of salt. All ens means are strengthening and anchoring the central PAC ridge and any sign of a -AO appears transient and more a function of the PV wobbling around the HL. Like you said, plenty of time but the looks we are seeing certainly arent giving me a warm fuzzy feeling right now. Normally I would say meh its post 240 hours but when the ens are unanimous irt specific features....

I'm not seeing that. Better look around 300hrs with the PV setting up as a 50/50. OP at range tho....futile analysis.

It really pretty much is the norm that we dont get much appreciable snows until after mid January tbh. The seasons where we have significant snow before mid Jan are unusual and are rare. Still a reasonable expectation that both of our respective regions end up with average to just above average snowfall when all is said and done. Now if we get to Valentines Day and we are still under a couple of inches to date then I will reconsider what I just typed. For now, we wait.

Look at this loop...the SE ridge is about to go apesh!t and the trof out West is anchoring in.

Opposite actually. PNA ridge we had for a window gets squashed and a SE ridge is showing up. Granted it is an op run and at range but there was no improvement....quite the opposite.

Talk about a role reversal....how about a high coming out of the GOM attacking a banana low anchored over the NE. Cant say I've seen anything like that anytime recently

Even in the worst patterns during winter there are always windows. I'm not sure we ever get an extended period of good looks...maybe, who knows. I think as I said before we are in for a roller coaster with everything but the kitchen sink coming. Mild stretches, bitter cold shots, flooding rains, ice storms late Jan into Feb, a blizzard, thunder, etc. The pattern has that topsy turvy feel to it and we are seeing the PV migrating around and flexing. Its akin to spinning the roulette wheel....gotta play big to win big.

US models are caving rapidly. Last year extended range had epic looks and they never materialized until March and stayed 10 days+ out all winter. This season we get poor looks and they continue looking more bleak and getting closer in time and hang on longer in the LR. Funny how that works. Tuning up the lawnmower today. Maybe reverse psychology can help lol.

Aside from a brief few days of BN weather next weekend, the ens means are torchy the entire run with even greater widespread anomalous warmth closer towards the end. 500mb pattern is essentially complete opposite of what we would be looking for and we are quickly losing that 'workable' appearance. SE Ridge is firing and that central PAC ridge and Aleutian ridge are anchored. No way to say it nicely....it is what it is.

Picked up a hot insider tip a short while ago that Panic Room rates will be doubling and tripling in the next few days.

We've been in a +NAO since Dec 1 start of met winter. EPS has a raging +NAO still going at 240 hours. Do you think the NAO will still eventually tank so low to skew the mean negative by the end of winter?

https://www.foxnews.com/us/2019-weather-moments-polar-vortex-hurricane-dorian-bomb-cyclone-midwest-flooding-tornado LOL. PV big news for the year!

Dude that is a whack pattern developing between Jan 3-8. Saw one run with the FL snowcane, another with a SLP in the western GOM dive SE and hit Jamaica, a bomb cyclone, a low 75 miles.east of Delmarva track WNW and end up west of Philly 6 hours later, etc. If there is going to be a convoluted surprise that may be the period. Like Bob said, doubt we will be tracking a particular threat....but something might pop under the radar in the short/mid range. Some fun solutions popping up tho.

Anyone glance at the HH GFS? Has a 936 low at the benchmark lol.

HH GFS says Merry Christmas with a bomb cyclone : Gets down to 936.....well that was fun lol.

Amazing, just 2 days ago several here had punted the first 3 weeks of January.

Also this is an op run at LR and there is alot of indecision among ens members as to where the PV ends up...Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, back towards W Canada. TBD. I would take that location tho on the op.

Minus 40s just N of the US/Canada border and above 40s in this region. Gradient.

Loving the 276hr gfs coastal off the Delmarva that jumps to West of Philly by 282 lol

Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, and Happy Holidays to all!

I really enjoyed the HH GFS at 288 that takes a low in the Western Gulf and dives it straight Southeast into Jamaica!!

Bingo...actually day 9 has a lp attacking a departing hp. Ends up cutting but different look that some of the gloom doom and SHUTOUT talks

Day 10 Euro op looks........interesting.