Ralph Wiggum

You can see on radar the best lift is staying to the South and East. 18Z 12k NAM fwiw:

Go back to my post from yesterday. The 3 major ens families keep trading places irt good vs bad. Good sign a change is coming in one form or another. I will say that the EPS has showed a few consecutive good looks that are actually moving closer in time so there's that. It is either seeing things better or it is stubborn and maybe it is consistently wrong.

Hrrr, for all the slack it got earlier here and in other subs, is verifying rather well with the r/s line comparing to current nexrad loops and reports around Lancaster, Morgantown, etc. Oh well, maybe the GFS op is onto something with the window Jan 17-20.

WWA was warranted I do not disagree with that at all. Their wording about slick travel on point.

RGEM is very warm. Guidance continues with weaker low, weaker 850 lift, and warmer bl. Low deepens but later after best lift is well past the Del River. Hrrr might be overdone but it is gaining support. Expectations are low.

Every second that ticks by, the sun angle is increasing. It's true, I read it online. Summer solstice cant get here fast enough. /s

Gonna do some yard work in shorts this weekend. Thinking about running a tank of fuel and seafoam carb cleaner thru the snowblower. Ya know, get it ready and all. That should certainly not jinx anything moving forward.

Could see some snow squalls during the day on Wednesday. If you believe the hrrr verbatim, some areas see more snow from the squalls than from the event tonight.

12z NAM coming in line with other guidance. Hrrr is still very warm much like the rgem....definitely has me raising an eyebrow as snow will be rate dependent for the most part. HRRR is a nonevent essentially. GL everyone...set your expectations very low with this one and maybe hope for a small surprise :

They are looking for an 'angle' to support their fears. See what I did there?

@Ji this is one of the better looks on the LR GEFS in many runs irt the HL ridging. Hints the PV is split....maybe some bridging can happen across the AO region to connect an EPO, NAO, and Scan Ridge. Not unpossible

Where is the blocking that would sustain a wintry pattern after we hit day 16 That's on the GEFS. Take a blend and run...quickly.

This "4 Year Memory" popped up in my FB feed this morning. Not a bad job sniffing things out well in advance. Was just off a few days once it slowed things down. It may have even been the lp near TX and old Mexico that ended up being the storm:

EPS has the best look of the decade thus far fwiw.

I've seen this song and dance before. I hear exactly what you are saying.

Hopefully. I'm skeptical given the direction the mesos and the hrrr are heading. You know this isnt my 'home' region but I enjoy contributing and conversating...but I'm 20 miles NW of Philly and sweating it up here. Another tick N or warmer BL and we're toast. Hoping forcing and heavy rates can give all of us a car topper at the very least. GL!

Most guidance continues to trend this farther N with a torch BL in and around SE PA even to Lancaster. Being this is such a fast mover (3-4 houes?) I'm wondering just how much accumulating snow the region will actually see especially South and East of say Morgantown PA. While it's nice to see the NAM overdo qpf again it is basically by itself. The more realistic snow depth maps on the NAM which I find to be VERY accurate in these marginal events support the c-2" idea I suggested....leaning low end of that from say Pottstown S and E. Latest hrrr rolled in while typing and has trended warmer and is essentially a nothing burger for the area and has trending support among other guidance. Not impressed. Will be thrilled to see an hour of white rain thumpage and a quick coating of slush here before the system pulls away.

Depends on the pattern. For example will the one 20" storm stick around or is it coming between torches? The 10 - 2"ers....polar cold all month long with snow on snow? The 2 - 10"ers....back to back within a few days then done? Is it cold enough to stick around for a bit? I'm picky like that. I will take the 20" snowstorm in between moderate periods. Let that sh!t melt within a week or so. Cruddy stale snow sucks. Plus if inbetween moderation it would be a nice treat. I also like the idea of 10 - 2" systems tbh if it is going to be BN temps the entire month. 2" of snow every 3 days to freshen things up and only needing a broom? I can live with that. I'm not sure about the 4 - 5" storms. Sounds tempting but do I really feel like getting off my ass to snowblow once a week? Yes....yes I would lol. 2 - 10" storms. You are the weakest link!

NAM is finally getting a clue imo. A s/w and slp track like the NAM has shown along with the forcing shouldn't have been drying out like it was showing prior to the 18z runs. Maybe overdone on totals(?) but the qpf depiction given what I mentioned finally make sense. It's not like it's running into a dry 1059mb hp wedge.

This is realistic and should be a better indicator especially in marginal situations. Still a nice little treat:

NAM 12k from 0z is inline with my thoughts a general c-2" event. Should be rippage for a period as well per the NAM. Has some good forcing moving thru the region.

Honestly, I'm not sure quite what to think right now. I dont buy the GEFS....that has been changing quite a bit run to run. Blend of GEPS/EPS seems reasonable. If anything the pattern evolution might be getting rushed on the EPS. This is 3 days or so now for the EPS signal so there's that. Let's move it closer in time and we could be onto something.

I feel like some of us are starting to cherry pick the ens means with the best pattern look and trying to find a reason why it will work out. But the fact of the matter is it's a see-saw between the models. Ens means A and B look hopeful 14 days out while C is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days and ens means B and C look like a way out at day 14 but ens A is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days ens A and C look promising starting in 14 days but ens B backed down. It's an every 2 days switcheroo. Fact of the matter is, the good looks are still 2 weeks out regardless which ens may have the better idea. The issue is these looks arent stepping up in time and that is a problem. If we are going to score we need to find windows in this pattern....like tomorrow for example....and perhaps another centered around the 17th. Maybe when things get convoluted towards the end of the season we can luck into a warning type system. With the snow coverage in the N Hemi diminishing already, that doesnt give me the warm fuzzies either.

From your keyboard to Mother Nature's monitor. Hoping u r right. A 7/8 into the cod then reemerging near 7 again wont be good.....at all.

"a full-latitude trough is old-school terminology for an upper-level trough that essentially spans from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico" source: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldofweather/s11.html