Ralph Wiggum

Noticed this icy look has been a signal for quite a while now around that time. I'm wondering if we enter a 93-94 redux for a period with more icy than white. Certainly has that reflection to some of the pattern appearances we are seeing spit out from the ens.

Better signs moving forward across ALL ens means even if progressing in somewhat differing ways. Looks like a transitional period upcoming centered around Jan 17. I could see the last 10 days or so of the month getting very active, cold, and wintry in this region.

6z GEFS caving to a +PNA look in the LR and hints of a ridge bridge from EPO thru AO across the NAO and into Scandinavia.

Pretty tight clustering and strong agreement there. Actually took a step back from a few days ago.

8 separate snow events totaling 2.7" .... talk about nickel and diming. Sheesh.

Also referred to around these parts as "winter cancel". Let them jump ship....this isnt over yet.

Go back to my post from yesterday. The 3 major ens families keep trading places irt good vs bad. Good sign a change is coming in one form or another. I will say that the EPS has showed a few consecutive good looks that are actually moving closer in time so there's that. It is either seeing things better or it is stubborn and maybe it is consistently wrong.

Gonna do some yard work in shorts this weekend. Thinking about running a tank of fuel and seafoam carb cleaner thru the snowblower. Ya know, get it ready and all. That should certainly not jinx anything moving forward.

Could see some snow squalls during the day on Wednesday. If you believe the hrrr verbatim, some areas see more snow from the squalls than from the event tonight.

They are looking for an 'angle' to support their fears. See what I did there?

@Ji this is one of the better looks on the LR GEFS in many runs irt the HL ridging. Hints the PV is split....maybe some bridging can happen across the AO region to connect an EPO, NAO, and Scan Ridge. Not unpossible

Where is the blocking that would sustain a wintry pattern after we hit day 16 That's on the GEFS. Take a blend and run...quickly.

This "4 Year Memory" popped up in my FB feed this morning. Not a bad job sniffing things out well in advance. Was just off a few days once it slowed things down. It may have even been the lp near TX and old Mexico that ended up being the storm:

EPS has the best look of the decade thus far fwiw.

Depends on the pattern. For example will the one 20" storm stick around or is it coming between torches? The 10 - 2"ers....polar cold all month long with snow on snow? The 2 - 10"ers....back to back within a few days then done? Is it cold enough to stick around for a bit? I'm picky like that. I will take the 20" snowstorm in between moderate periods. Let that sh!t melt within a week or so. Cruddy stale snow sucks. Plus if inbetween moderation it would be a nice treat. I also like the idea of 10 - 2" systems tbh if it is going to be BN temps the entire month. 2" of snow every 3 days to freshen things up and only needing a broom? I can live with that. I'm not sure about the 4 - 5" storms. Sounds tempting but do I really feel like getting off my ass to snowblow once a week? Yes....yes I would lol. 2 - 10" storms. You are the weakest link!

Honestly, I'm not sure quite what to think right now. I dont buy the GEFS....that has been changing quite a bit run to run. Blend of GEPS/EPS seems reasonable. If anything the pattern evolution might be getting rushed on the EPS. This is 3 days or so now for the EPS signal so there's that. Let's move it closer in time and we could be onto something.

I feel like some of us are starting to cherry pick the ens means with the best pattern look and trying to find a reason why it will work out. But the fact of the matter is it's a see-saw between the models. Ens means A and B look hopeful 14 days out while C is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days and ens means B and C look like a way out at day 14 but ens A is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days ens A and C look promising starting in 14 days but ens B backed down. It's an every 2 days switcheroo. Fact of the matter is, the good looks are still 2 weeks out regardless which ens may have the better idea. The issue is these looks arent stepping up in time and that is a problem. If we are going to score we need to find windows in this pattern....like tomorrow for example....and perhaps another centered around the 17th. Maybe when things get convoluted towards the end of the season we can luck into a warning type system. With the snow coverage in the N Hemi diminishing already, that doesnt give me the warm fuzzies either.

From your keyboard to Mother Nature's monitor. Hoping u r right. A 7/8 into the cod then reemerging near 7 again wont be good.....at all.

"a full-latitude trough is old-school terminology for an upper-level trough that essentially spans from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico" source: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldofweather/s11.html

If this takes us up to the last week of January and these stubborn pattern changes are usually rushed too quickly on the models, then we are in trouble. We are nearing a point rather quickly where incremental changes at the end of an ens means arent going to cut it. We need to start seeing better signs of an overall pattern regime flip. Give it another 10 days. If things are still doing the 1 step forward 1 step back thing, it's time. I know people dont want to hear it but I'm pretty sure I am just putting in writing what Bob, PSU, and some others are thinking in the back of their minds.

7 snow events so far this season for a grand total of 2.4" We do nickel and dime very well around these parts.

Looks like overnight GEPS that we were hopeful would continue the positive trends started caving to the GEFS. Pac ridge never fades, broad SE ridge trying to team up with the WAR, little help up top. However, the GEFS has some weak ridging into the NAO down the road but now we are pinning our hopes, IF that is even correct, into the last week of January. MJO emerging high amp 4/5 then quickly dying in 6 before returning to the COD. The cycle is on wash, rinse, repeat for now. I think it is becoming clear we are not going to get a favorable sustained pattern this season....maybe towards the tail end. We are likely going to have to work with brief windows during peak climo. Anyone feel like dissecting the EPS?

Some people did some things. You know how that goes.

Where are you seeing the MJO forecasts for emerging into 7/8? Having a hard time finding it. All MJO forecasts I see bring it high amplitude 4/5 killing the amplitude quickly in 6 then back into the cod. Thanks.

True story