Ralph Wiggum

That is actually a really good idea.

Camp 2 seems most likely given the progression we are seeing in the overall N Hemi teleconnections. Fairly certain the current meh pattern will begin to progress into something more workable as the strong N central PAC ridge begins to migrate/extend into the EPO region allowing for continental cold air intrusions. With the said, the PAC will still continue to rule to show. While the Scandinavian ridge will eventually attempt to bridge across the AO region and provide a favorable window, it appears to the me the theme of transient Atl and HL features will continue on well into mid February while the more stable mid lat features may return to their base state (-pna/central PAC ridge/se ridge). When the EPO ridge wanes we will once again be dependent on transient blocking/ridging on the Atl side for windows. Not surprising we arent getting a sustained favorable pattern but rather windows of opportunity. Better than a complete shutout look. Tbh I can see us transitioning to cold and dry early Feb before the EPO ridge relaxes and things return to hostile in the N central PAC.

CFS weeklies were hinting at that. Had the crud pattern this week transitioning to near normal temps above normal precip then finally to cold/dry and eventually colder/drier first week or so of Feb.

Why are we in banter talking actual weather?

Been showing on the ensembles for what seems like a week now. Pattern changing long wave centered around the 17th, threat window Jan 20-24...very active and cold look.

12z GEFS is trending favorably towards a -AO towards the end of the run. Has been hinting at this signal for several runs now.

Getting closer to reaching 8/1 maybe with some high amplitude.

Saw that. The GEFS took 2 steps back irt the Atl from 18z. Now shows a ridge at the 50/50 and a trof over the NAO region. Has the EPO ridge and the neutral AO you mentioned. Doesnt mean it's not a workable look just pointing out the Atl changes at HL.

That's quite the progression of the Pac ridge blob into the EPO and moving into the AO towards the end of the OP run. Usual caveat...it's an op run at range but that's one way to potentially make Feb a very memorable one. I also like how the Pac death ridge was replaced with a strong trof.

Caps-Flyers always a competitive rivalry throughout the years. Flyers had a horrible road trip. I'm sure being back home tonight helped.

No southern sliders. Said a few times already these looks have an icy/mix feel to them.

I want to walk across the bridge.

GFS is trying to go bonkers in fantasyland

I could certainly see the workable pattern being pushed back in real time. Most changes happen slower than forecast in the LR so we shall see. I mentioned either here or in the MA sub about a week ago that some of the ens looks and weeklies later in the month have more of an icy look than a white snowy one irt the SE ridge still being present and a piece of the PV still evident in E and SE Canada. Of course synoptic detail are irrelevant at this range but the 'looks' are evident on many of the LR stuff. Hoping to avoid a JF 94 redux for any length of time.

Noticed this icy look has been a signal for quite a while now around that time. I'm wondering if we enter a 93-94 redux for a period with more icy than white. Certainly has that reflection to some of the pattern appearances we are seeing spit out from the ens.

Better signs moving forward across ALL ens means even if progressing in somewhat differing ways. Looks like a transitional period upcoming centered around Jan 17. I could see the last 10 days or so of the month getting very active, cold, and wintry in this region.

6z GEFS caving to a +PNA look in the LR and hints of a ridge bridge from EPO thru AO across the NAO and into Scandinavia.

Pretty tight clustering and strong agreement there. Actually took a step back from a few days ago.

8 separate snow events totaling 2.7" .... talk about nickel and diming. Sheesh.

Ended with .3" le in the gauge. Light coating of slush on decks and cars.

Heaviest snow of the night in Warminster. 32F.

Maybe this could overperform after all? If the quick drying back edge on some guidance is wrong maybe we can.

Out in Blue Bell we just started as snow

Also referred to around these parts as "winter cancel". Let them jump ship....this isnt over yet.

DPs arent the problem now for yours and my area. Moisture is. 850 forcing is well S and E into DE and is headed to S NJ and East while drying out the back edge. Eta: we will get some rippage for an hour or so anyway. Was hoping for the Rare overperformer but I'm not sure this is the one. Nowcast time I guess.