Ralph Wiggum

Honestly, I'm not sure quite what to think right now. I dont buy the GEFS....that has been changing quite a bit run to run. Blend of GEPS/EPS seems reasonable. If anything the pattern evolution might be getting rushed on the EPS. This is 3 days or so now for the EPS signal so there's that. Let's move it closer in time and we could be onto something.

I feel like some of us are starting to cherry pick the ens means with the best pattern look and trying to find a reason why it will work out. But the fact of the matter is it's a see-saw between the models. Ens means A and B look hopeful 14 days out while C is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days and ens means B and C look like a way out at day 14 but ens A is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days ens A and C look promising starting in 14 days but ens B backed down. It's an every 2 days switcheroo. Fact of the matter is, the good looks are still 2 weeks out regardless which ens may have the better idea. The issue is these looks arent stepping up in time and that is a problem. If we are going to score we need to find windows in this pattern....like tomorrow for example....and perhaps another centered around the 17th. Maybe when things get convoluted towards the end of the season we can luck into a warning type system. With the snow coverage in the N Hemi diminishing already, that doesnt give me the warm fuzzies either.

From your keyboard to Mother Nature's monitor. Hoping u r right. A 7/8 into the cod then reemerging near 7 again wont be good.....at all.

"a full-latitude trough is old-school terminology for an upper-level trough that essentially spans from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico" source: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldofweather/s11.html

If this takes us up to the last week of January and these stubborn pattern changes are usually rushed too quickly on the models, then we are in trouble. We are nearing a point rather quickly where incremental changes at the end of an ens means arent going to cut it. We need to start seeing better signs of an overall pattern regime flip. Give it another 10 days. If things are still doing the 1 step forward 1 step back thing, it's time. I know people dont want to hear it but I'm pretty sure I am just putting in writing what Bob, PSU, and some others are thinking in the back of their minds.

7 snow events so far this season for a grand total of 2.4" We do nickel and dime very well around these parts.

Looks like overnight GEPS that we were hopeful would continue the positive trends started caving to the GEFS. Pac ridge never fades, broad SE ridge trying to team up with the WAR, little help up top. However, the GEFS has some weak ridging into the NAO down the road but now we are pinning our hopes, IF that is even correct, into the last week of January. MJO emerging high amp 4/5 then quickly dying in 6 before returning to the COD. The cycle is on wash, rinse, repeat for now. I think it is becoming clear we are not going to get a favorable sustained pattern this season....maybe towards the tail end. We are likely going to have to work with brief windows during peak climo. Anyone feel like dissecting the EPS?

Some people did some things. You know how that goes.

Where are you seeing the MJO forecasts for emerging into 7/8? Having a hard time finding it. All MJO forecasts I see bring it high amplitude 4/5 killing the amplitude quickly in 6 then back into the cod. Thanks.

Big jump N on the ICON. Disregard the thermals:

True story

He is amazing.

GEFS look nothing like the op. Better look early in the EPO region maybe into the AO then goes right back to PAC ridge vomit west coast trof se ridge

OP at range but the Pac death puke blob from Hades is displaced and waning by the end.

North American trof I think unless he like the look of a massive negative SD near the Eastern NAO.

Looks like a full lat trof neg tilt to it. Big storm signal for the East....somewhere.

Ok

Congrats Texas Gulf Coast and old Mexico:

I like how on the HH GFS op the monster Pac ridge bubble spawns an ULL out of nowhere lol:

Hit 60 here and watch the snowflakes fly within 5 days. Interestingly there is a small window that keeps showing up centered around the 17th.

Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl. Oops sorry wrong sub.

Every 2 days it seems we go in mood swings. Today is a happy ending day on the ens. Cool.

C-2" sounds about right. We do these small events well. Nickel and diming is our thing.

Well this is falling apart quickly. Wasnt the slp running west of the cities just 36 hours ago or so?

That's not a bad look and extrapolated even better. I like the more significant SD colors colors to Scandinavia and not the Pac leading the way. The trof moving east like a turtle isnt bad either. Let's get this under 180 hours. ETA: forget about he above extrapolation because one could argue the PV is setting up near Alaska which is yet another way to fail.